From 2013-2015, Grigson spent $329M in free agency, for an avg of $110M annually.
The #2 most in the NFL.
He primarily spent on the defensive side.
To offset his defensive spending, he had to make his offense cheaper.
And so he did.
The allocation of cap $ to the offensive side of the ball progressively decreased.
By 2014 & 2015, the Colts offense was a bottom-4 cap hit each year & #2 cheapest overall in the NFL.
Their cheapest position group in 2015?
O-line
Remember: Luck never missed a start until 2015
Who did Grigson use to protect Luck in 2015?
Joe Reitz: an undrafted NCAABB player (not football) signed to play TE, converted to O-Line
Jonotthan Harrison: another undrafted lineman
Thornton & Mewhort - Grigson draft picks. Both washed out of the NFL after their rookie deals.
Grigson also used LT Anthony Castonzo to protect Luck's blindside in 2015. Castonzo was the best player on the line, and was drafted by drafted Bill Polian the year before Grigson was hired.
(Note: Mewhort was better than he sounded. Injuries likewise shortened his career.)
Pressures, hits and sacks are not the sole responsibility of any one person.
• GM: for talent on O-Line
• O-line: for performance
• Play-caller: for plays he calls, progressions designed, audible ability entrusted to QB
• QB: for how he plays, moves & gets rid of the ball
But what is undeniable fact:
Under Grigson’s watch, over a five-year span:
• he spent less and less along the offensive line
• provided Luck with weaker and weaker talent for protection
• it resulted in Luck being the most pressured and hit quarterback in the NFL
We can't entirely blame Luck's early retirement on Grigson.
But we know it was a key contributing factor.
I hope this added context to Luck's injury history & serves as a lesson for other GMs about the importance of protecting QBs around the NFL.
unfortunately, I found the 2023 schedule is less fair & equitable at a historic level in many areas
a deep dive into the worst issues 🧵
let's look at schedule equity using a number of variables related to rest & prep
- Net rest edge
- More or less rest than opponent
- Opponent’s days to prep for your game
- Short week road games
- Games off road SNF/MNF
- Negated bye weeks
but first let's talk historic inequity
in 2023, there will be 95 games played where a team has more rest than their opponent
most in history
as recently as the late 2000s, the NFL wouldn't schedule 30% of there games where one team had a rest advantage
team-by-team & round-by-round analysis to follow 🧵
2023 NFL draft player selections:
most underdrafted (best values)
and overdrafted (worst values)
by round (rounds 1-5)
let's walk through team-by-team and analyze some of the best & worst draft classes
analysis is based on the wisdom of crowds approach and uses research from @GrindingMocks, @benj_robinson & @ArifHasanNFL to set expectations for big boards entering the 2023 NFL draft