/THREAD/
1. Zarif unexpectedly attending the G7 meeting may lead to a much-needed deescalation. If the reporting on Macron's proposal is correct, it would also be signal an abysmal failure of Bolton's maximum pressure strategy.
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1. Zarif unexpectedly attending the G7 meeting may lead to a much-needed deescalation. If the reporting on Macron's proposal is correct, it would also be signal an abysmal failure of Bolton's maximum pressure strategy.
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2. Macron reportedly proposes that Iran returns to full compliance to the JCPOA in return for Trump reissuing sanctions waivers and thus removing his illegal sanctions against purchasing Iranian oil.
3. This would bring the situation back to the status quo pre-May 2019. The US will continue to violate the deal and sanction Iran, Tehran will continue to adhere to the deal but will also sell its oil. It's a status quo no one is happy with, but one that is relatively stable.
4. Iran will remain in the deal and wait to see if America comes to its senses in 2020.
If this is the outcome, it shows Iran's counter-escalation was successful and that Trump's pressure failed. Instead of Iran's collapse, Trump had to retreat in order to avoid confrontation.
If this is the outcome, it shows Iran's counter-escalation was successful and that Trump's pressure failed. Instead of Iran's collapse, Trump had to retreat in order to avoid confrontation.
5. Trump will likely want something more, ideally a photo op with Zarif. It's unlikely he'll get that. But the mere fact that the G7 will put this proposal to Trump will intensify tensions between him and Bolton/Pompeo who oppose diplomacy and any reduction in tensions.
6. All of this could have been avoided had Trump not violated the deal in the first place and had the Europeans been firm with Trump from the outset. They only got tough with him once Iran started to counter-escalate...
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