A 🧵on Israel’s current strategy

The last pages of @ronenbergman’s book on Israel’s assassination policy are quite prescient. He describes how Israel's head of the Mossad, Meir Dagan, underwent a “profound change in attitude” in favor of true peace >>

amazon.com/Rise-Kill-Firs… 2. “Dagan, along with Sharon and most of their colleagues in Israel's defense establishment and intelligence community, believed for many years that force could solve everything. That the right way to confront the Israeli-Arab dispute was by separating the Arab from his head.”>>

🧵US is way closer to getting dragged into a larger war than most realize. Paradoxically, we’re rushing towards war despite none of the main actors seeking it. It’s in this context that Biden’s prevention of de-escalation in Israel/Gaza is so problematic>>
responsiblestatecraft.org/biden-ceasefir… 2. There is little to suggest that Israel was preparing for or planning a larger war. And while it may be tempted to go after Hezbollah later, it is not seeking a two-front war. Nor does Hezbollah appear to favor escalation. Same goes for Iran, Saudi, Egypt etc. >>

🧵Difficult to think of anyone deserving the Nobel Prize more than #NargesMohammadi!! It’s a major blow against the repressive government in Iran - but also against Diaspora figures who have slandered Mohammadi and sought to hijack the women’s movement in Iran. >> 2. It’s a recognition of her relentless AND PRINCIPLED work for human rights, but also that of ordinary women who continue to struggle for their rights in Iran. It puts a much-needed spotlight on the Iranian regime’s shameful treatment of Mohammadi and other rights defenders.>>

🧵This is a rather stunning development. Few expected there to be such a concrete step for expansion, as well as the inclusion of Iran in it. A few thoughts:

https://twitter.com/MhmmdJamshidi/status/1694618652438360227

2. This shows that a key leverage the US had versus Iran - Washington being the gatekeeper for who is in and who is out of the community of nations - is now almost completely lost. This is a leverage the US had during the earlier JCPOA negotiations. >>

🧵Biden began his presidency by promising to make Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman a pariah and now–in the mother of all flip flops – is considering offering up American women and men to die for that same crown prince. >>

wsj.com/articles/u-s-s… 2. Instead of systematically seeking to reduce tensions in the region and bring US troops home, this is a giant step in the opposite direction that makes it more likely that Americans once again will be dragged into a military confrontation in the Middle East.>>

🧵The Washington Post reports that Biden is preparing a "remarkable escalation" in the Persian Gulf that could lead to a US-Iran war. Biden is primarily responsible for having created this situation due to two policy paths he has chosen. >>

washingtonpost.com/national-secur… 2. First, he chose to negotiate America’s return to the JCPOA rather than reentering it via executive order while also disregarding many of the key factors that made Obama’s diplomacy with Iran successful.>>

🧵NATO members breathed a sigh of relief as Erdogan approved Sweden’s application. Yet the Sweden soon joining NATO is not the same country that so often promoted peace

@fridastranne & I write in @ForeignPolicy how Sweden's transformed into a China hawk>>
foreignpolicy.com/2023/07/24/swe… 2. That Sweden's position on Russia has changed is not surprising, given Putin's illegal invasion of Ukraine. Sweden today views dialogue with Russia as appeasement and actively opposes diplomacy and compromise. That does not make Sweden an outlier in Europe. >>

🧵In this piece, I go through what the informal, unwritten POTENTIAL agreement between the US and Iran will likely include, why the two sides have started talks again, and why they are opting for an informal deal rather this time around. >>
foreignpolicy.com/2023/06/20/an-… 2.  What is on the table is not the renewal of the 2015 nuclear agreement—which remains comatose—but rather an unwritten understanding that neither side will pull the plug on the respirator.>>

🧵Today is the 5-year anniversary of Donald Trump's withdrawal from the Iran nuclear deal, and it is difficult to overstate how disastrous his exit and Joe Biden’s failure to re-enter the deal has been to US national security. >> 2. From Iran’s progress towards a nuclear weapons option to its support for Russia against Ukraine to the loss of US leverage over Iran and credibility with the global community, this decision will go down in history as one of the biggest strategic screw-ups in US history. >>

This is a thoughtful thread, hopefully the beginning of a good conversation. After months of massive social media manipulation, threat and cancellation campaigns, the unleashing of these undemocratic forces is predictably starting to target those who either supported it or...>>

https://twitter.com/SinaToossi/status/1650175313840832512

...remained silent as long as they themselves were not targeted. @dblock94's article does a good job in showing how the silencing of debate and other fascist methods does not serve the cause of democracy in Iran. As he writes, those targeted at first were not supporters of...>>

Important piece by @DavidBlock on how extremist voices in the Iranian Diaspora - in the name of the legitimate protesters in Iran - engaged in horrendous threats, harassment & silencing of debate.

He specifically names Kaveh Shahrooz & Sana Ebrahimi >>
politico.com/news/magazine/… \ 2. Shahrooz engaged in threats and harassment, accusing skeptics of sanctions of "fellating" the Iranian FM, calling them Nazis and "collaborators." Ebrahimi told an Iranian human rights defender that when the regime falls, it will be “a sad and scary day in your life.” >>

A 🧵on my op-ed in the @nytopinion today:

As China is seeking to mediate peace from the Mideast to Ukraine, this should be a moment of reflection for us. There was a time when all roads to peace went through Washington.

Not anymore. >>

nytimes.com/2023/03/22/opi… 2. America prides itself on NOT being an impartial mediator. We take sides to be “on the right side of history” since we view statecraft as a battle between good & evil rather than the pragmatic management of conflict where peace inevitably comes at the expense of some justice>>

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Shockingly, it turns out that some of the blobbers close to the Democratic party who’ve taken it upon themselves to police the Left and kill all debate - in the name of saving Democracy, mind you - seem to have no clue what the Biden's policy on Ukraine actually is.>> 2. With the revelation that Biden actually is engaging in direct, US-Russia diplomacy - which the retracted CPC letter called for - a few conclusions can now be drawn. >>
wsj.com/articles/senio…

🧵Difficult not to be struck by how the current #IranProtests2022 differ from those in 2009. The latter was about a stolen election and a fight within the current system re reform. They tended to be non-violent.

The anger and frustration today are FAR greater. >>

https://twitter.com/ErshadAlijani/status/1572320104200966144

2. For two decades, attempts at reforming the system have been stymied. The regime has responded with violence, stealing elections - and marginalizing and imprisoning those seeking peaceful reforms.
>>

🧵Against all odds, the Iran nuclear deal is on the verge of being revived. But the new JCPOA will be more fragile than its predecessor and born into a geopolitical context that reduces rather than bolsters its longevity. Here's how to make it stick >>

foreignaffairs.com/iran/last-chan… 2. Rather than building trust, mismatched expectations have turned the diplomacy of the past 16 months into a trust-depleting exercise. The Iranians have refused direct talks. Biden wasted time early on and seemed more concerned about pleasing Israel than reviving the deal.
>>

🧵With Biden expected to signal the US's return to the Iran Nuclear Deal as early as today, here's a brief thread on what that means and what needs to come next:
>> 2. The Iran nuclear deal serves US interests, full stop. It blocks all of Iran's pathways to a bomb while preventing a disastrous US-Iran war. And by reducing US-Iran tensions, it also opens the way for the US to bring American servicemen and women home from the Middle East.>>

🧵Americans are tired, at odds with themselves and in no shape to handle more foreign entanglements — much less the three-front catastrophe looming before us: Ukraine, Taiwan & Iran. My latest for MSNBC. >>

msnbc.com/opinion/msnbc-… 2. The US is facing a drawn-out war in Ukraine that risks escalating into a direct US-Russia confrontation, the potential collapse of the Iran nuclear deal and now an unnecessary crisis with China over Taiwan, triggered by Nancy Pelosi. >>

Very encouraging that @USEnvoyIran is going to Vienna for a new round of JCPOA talks. It may be difficult to be optimistic, but it should be clear to all sides how much they have to lose if talks collapse. Neither side can escape blame. >> 2. As 16 groups wrote Biden earlier in June, failing to renew the JCPOA will force you to double down on Trump’s maximum pressure strategy. "Just as this strategy was a self-inflicted wound under Trump, it will be so under your watch as well.” >>

quincyinst.org/press/groups-w…

MUST READ by @Quincyinst's Asli Bali on why Restraint ultimately is better for human rights. She shows that preventive & humanitarian wars have critically impaired human rights, as have comprehensive sanctions. >>

quincyinst.org/report/the-hum… 2. "The belief that only Western states can be trusted to act on humanitarian grounds persists despite their long record of failed interventions and serious questions about the mixed motives of some of these operations."
>>

🧵@JosepBorrellF & @enriquemora_ should be commended for their efforts to revive the JCPOA. It's been very difficult, with Iran paralyzed by suspicion of the durability of US commitments and Biden's unwillingness/inability to give enduring commitments>>
ft.com/content/e759d2… 2. Borrell now feels that the US won't move to address Iran's concerns about durability and that spending more time on it may cause the JCPOA to fully collapse. The hope then, it appears, is to compel Iran to take a deal that may not even last 5 months - and hope for the best. >>

🧵In Saudi, Biden reiterated the claim that Iran destabilizes the region, so I am re-upping @matthew_petti and my study that shows that while Iran is a highly interventionist power, the UAE and Turkey actually have surpassed Iran in this area. >>

quincyinst.org/report/no-clea… 2. We looked at all the interventions of regional powers in the region between 2010-2020. Iran is certainly one of the most interventionist powers. But five out of the six most international powers are armed, funded and protected by the United States. >>