As discussions between PD & M5S continue, also abt name of PM, it's useful to go back a few days to re-read @GiuseppeConteIT's resignation speech. He DID press buttons at key points to please the PD. Rumours now have it that M5S has offered PD majority of ministeries...
... as long as they swallow bitter pill of allowing Conte to stay on (M5S says these rumours untrue, but they are believable). PD unhappy with Conte mainly 'cause they need to show their electorate there's discontinuity btw this & previous govt.
Easy to see why M5S fixated on Conte: allows party to claim that they are still delivering on same promises (with support from PD); also very unlikely he'd be rejected by members in online vote (he's popular with electorate, even more so among M5S voters).
Moreover, something like this would definitely weaken Salvini even further (he's losing ground in the polls): the Captain, as he likes to be called, would be made to look powerless (he pulls the plug, ends up with same PM who has nuked him in Parliament...).
I suspect this is possibly the greatest attraction of this choice for M5S - given that THEY have been shrinking in the polls, & losing ground to the League, since they agreed to form a govt with them (unprepared & naïve as they were). Symbolically, this would be a big victory.
An astute PD would give ground on this (Conte popular among electorate as a whole, as I have said) & score goals elsewhere (not just gaining key Ministries, but the RIGHT ministries to be able to push a coherent narrative; bag agreements in 5 areas @nzingaretti said important)
But the PD is not astute, hasn't got a coherent narrative to push & remains fundamentally & mortally divided. /END/
Update: various sources within PD now saying agreement more likely (with Conte staying on as PM).

#CrisidiGoverno #ElezioniAnticipate

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More from @DrAlbertazziUK

Jan 13
Another record for @berlusconi (tick), as the first leader ever to openly campaign via the media (this is one of the family's newspapers) to become Italy's President. "The friend of everyone, the enemy of no-one".
Living aside the totally absurd claims made here, including that Berlusconi "ended the cold war".... here is a summary of why he should never be allowed near the Presidency, a serious role exercising real power (cerimonial it is not):
B. is a felon (tax fraud), who had to serve time "helping" in an old people's home because apparently too old to serve time in jail.

This puts into perspective his claim in the newspaper today that he is one of the greatest contributors to Italy's Treasury.
Read 16 tweets
Dec 13, 2021
The week-long series of debates, meetings & cultural events organised by Brothers of Italy (“Conservatives’ Christmas”) has come to an end. It has been a success for @GiorgiaMeloni, in terms of media coverage & participation by many high profile reps from all major parties.
(they were all duly hit on the head with a stick by her during her final speech, but that’s life...)
While Meloni’s willingness to be identified as a “conservative” is interesting and worth keeping an eye on, it’s also worth noting that this internal dialectic between “revolutionaries” and “conservatives” has always characterised the Italian Social Movement..
Read 18 tweets
Oct 3, 2021
14 years ago the then leader of Brothers of Italy's predecessor, the National Alliance, went to Israel, said that fascism was "pure evil" & rejected the legacy of Mussolini's Social Republic.

In time, he moved even further to the centre.
Having split from Berlusconi, Gianfranco Fini tried to reinvent himself as a liberal leader renewing Italy's right, only to end up in the political wilderness. There was no political space back then for someone of his background now embracing the values of the Enlightenment.
Meloni's strategy in recent years could not have been different, as we are seeing today after reps from her party have been shown on TV praising fascism & making openly racist statements.
Read 13 tweets
Sep 30, 2021
In 40 years of League history (i.e. starting from the Lega Autonomista Lombarda) there has never been a sitting national leader ejected by the party. Not for political reasons, and not for any other reasons (both Bossi and Maroni had resigned).
Yes things change, but the idea that the members of the "League for Salvini Premier" are now going to follow such an inspiring leader as Giorgetti, & that Salvini won't fight back is, frankly, for the birds.
Hard as it certainly is, the only way for the League not to be overtaken by Meloni (and by a large margin) is to try and keep its coalition together: radical boh-vax, Eurosceptic, no-asylum voters, alongside the more export oriented productive types of the deep north.
Read 4 tweets
Sep 4, 2021
I have said many times that I expect an eventual govt led by @GiorgiaMeloni to act in continuity with the 4 govts led by @berlusconi in the last 25 years. The fundamental reason are the powerful external constraints placed upon Italy by its membership of NATO & the EU...
... (particularly as Italy starts drawing EU funds to bounce back, & considering its ballooning state debt & reliance on international finance markets).

These facts will not be changed by a campaign - as they never have before.
Yes, the radical right League & Brothers of Italy send (not exactly "covert") messages to an extreme right milieu, trying to keep these individuals & groups on board, not to mention the small but vociferous world of NO-VAX, No-Green Pass groups...
Read 11 tweets
Apr 14, 2021
Like Conte's, Draghi's govt seems to be making it up on a daily basis concerning pandemic.

It is as if structural factors (e.g. state capabilities), relations of power state/regions, and: "events, dear boy, events" (e.g. J&J & AZ) mattered more -much more- than identity of PM 🤔
On the other hand, no-one could have predicted this.
Problem with this constant overpromising of "new eras" that always fail to materialise is that it provides the ideal breeding ground for next "anti-elite" entrepreneur who, this time, "will definetely get things done". Feeding a never ending cycle of political disillusionment.
Read 4 tweets

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