Manifestos of Italy's League and Brothers of Italy (FdI), EU Parliamentary elections 2024.

Here are some brief thoughts. They are just first impressions, certainly not a systematic content analysis…

SHORT THREAD BELOW The League’s manifesto is here:
legaonline.it/europee/

What do Italian leaders of the major parties need to achieve in these EU Parliamentary elections? A short thread. .@matteosalvinimi needs to survive – plain & simple. His party hasn’t got the credibility, ideas nor leaders to compete with @GiorgiaMeloni's Brothers of Italy, and everyone within the League knows this.

Italian PM speaking in Kiev right now. Unambiguously, 100% on Ukraine's side. Also with an eye to the reconstruction of the country (explicitly acknowledged). Right, left, centre or technocrats, when it comes to the "big issues" (EU, US, NATO) successive Italian govts have basically sung from the same hymn sheet for decades.

Statement by @GiorgiaMeloni this evening: "Italy is in the EU & NATO, those who disagree are out of the govt, even if it means we won't even be able to start".

https://twitter.com/DrAlbertazziUK/status/1582780175024287744

And l had believed the various pundits from @guardian & @repubblica telling us that Meloni was anti-EU and anti-US...

More radically pro-Putin & anti-Zelenskyy statements by @berlusconi made public today, with addition of claps by @forza_italia audience.

You are only allowed to act suprised if you are a member of the @EPP or are still a baby. Yet the same Italian tabloids, such as @Corriere, that have been telling us abt Berlusconi's "moderation" for years ARE acting suprised today.

According to this article, Brothers of Italy is being instrumental in the creation of a Parliamentary group of "Us, the Moderates" (NOT Renzi's group) by diverting some of its lawmakers towards it.

Why?

editorialedomani.it/politica/itali… Like in the European Parliament, in Italy you need a minimum amount of lawmakers to form a group (nr. varies in the 2 chambers). But then you have access to several useful facilities, starting with an actual office.

Making @matteosalvinimi Transport and Infrastructure Minister, rather than Interior, will be @GiorgiaMeloni's next step in her quest to assert her authority over her allies. The fact that the new Interior Minister is likely to be someone who is in good terms with the League is a little sweetener, but does not change the fact that Salvini wanted the job for himself.

This has now happened, as @berlusconi & @GiorgiaMeloni say they will attend formal consultations with President (at which they will propose Meloni as future PM) together.

https://twitter.com/DrAlbertazziUK/status/1581208736491634689

The tabloids will act surprised to milk a little bit more out of this story, but it was the only logical outcome all along.

If you live in Italy & wonder whether millions of voters suddenly embrace "neofascist" ideas, stop fretting.

They do not. Looking at flows btw parties, as published by various sources, you'll see that Brothers of Italy has attracted neglegible support from outside the right.

There is no way the Italian right can deliver the tax cuts it has promised during the campaign, not to mention raising pensions for good measure, & much else. Unlike the UK, which can announce borrowing on a massive scale (to then happily start sinking into the ocean, as we have seen), Italy is, of course, part of the Economic and Monetary Union.

On the basis of partial count of votes in the Senate:

right wing alliance around 43% (a modest result, compared to their best days); PD+M5S+Greens/left = 38%. 5 points gap.

Yes, we'll never know what the latter would have got had they stood together. We don't know what the manifesto might have been, whether they would have been able to identify a prospective PM in advance, how s/he would have performed in the campaign. I get it.

If we look at the Italian right-wing alliance as a whole, as I kept inviting you to do, & not exclusively at its components, we find that - in terms of the simple count of votes - this is a modest result.

Gone are the days of 48% overall. The data clearly shows that Meloni's success is built, to a large extent, on absorbing her allies. Again demonstrates fallacy of the narrative: "Italians have moved right in large nr". Apart from a share of the vote of the M5S, most of the rest comes from killing off the League.

What was widely predicted has happened and right wing coalition wins the elections by a large margin of seats. We have to be very careful because these are only exit polls. So read this and then forget it until tomorrow. If these results stand again: a big if... 👇👇

This election is about Italy's welfare state.

Not "democracy's survival", nor the country's international alliances (including its place in the EU). It's goodbye to the Citizens' Income for a start, and, if it goes as widely predicted, we'll soon find out whatever else.

5 things to check after Sunday's 🇮🇹 elections [Note: I have not seen any reserved data, and polls have not been published for a while]. 1.To what extent has M5S bounced back, compared with surveys a few months ago? If they are @ 12/13%, this would vindicate Conte’s strategy to regain some semblance of an identity in recent months, by avoiding a-critical support for Draghi’s bandwagon.

Sweden Democrats & Brothers of Italy say they do not want to exit EU/Euro & have no desire to change their country's foreign and defence policies either.

I wonder whether they are going to set a trend. It makes perfect sense for similar parties across Europe that are still seeking to be seen as having left "extremism" behind to keep ownerwhip of migration/law & order, while avoiding to pick battles that are much too big for them to win.

The advantage of being @GiorgiaMeloni today.

Literally everyone expects you to win; many feel strongly that it is a bad thing; yet no-one is trying to stop you. The centre-left is so obsessed with ideas of "responsibility" (hello Peter Mair) that it has accepted the inevitability of defeat, as long as they are not seen fielding candidates "with those over there who've mistreated Draghi".

Another record for @berlusconi (tick), as the first leader ever to openly campaign via the media (this is one of the family's newspapers) to become Italy's President. "The friend of everyone, the enemy of no-one".

https://twitter.com/smenichini/status/1481533270861000707

Living aside the totally absurd claims made here, including that Berlusconi "ended the cold war".... here is a summary of why he should never be allowed near the Presidency, a serious role exercising real power (cerimonial it is not):

The week-long series of debates, meetings & cultural events organised by Brothers of Italy (“Conservatives’ Christmas”) has come to an end. It has been a success for @GiorgiaMeloni, in terms of media coverage & participation by many high profile reps from all major parties. (they were all duly hit on the head with a stick by her during her final speech, but that’s life...)

14 years ago the then leader of Brothers of Italy's predecessor, the National Alliance, went to Israel, said that fascism was "pure evil" & rejected the legacy of Mussolini's Social Republic.

In time, he moved even further to the centre. Having split from Berlusconi, Gianfranco Fini tried to reinvent himself as a liberal leader renewing Italy's right, only to end up in the political wilderness. There was no political space back then for someone of his background now embracing the values of the Enlightenment.

In 40 years of League history (i.e. starting from the Lega Autonomista Lombarda) there has never been a sitting national leader ejected by the party. Not for political reasons, and not for any other reasons (both Bossi and Maroni had resigned). Yes things change, but the idea that the members of the "League for Salvini Premier" are now going to follow such an inspiring leader as Giorgetti, & that Salvini won't fight back is, frankly, for the birds.