This has become a vicious circle of #HongKongPoliceForce brutality leading to increasingly militant counter-actions by protesters. It’s very hard to see where the off ramp is /1
As I have stated previously the HKSAR government has morphed into a local mafia state. Carrie Lam is politically responsible for the militarization and weaponization of the #HKPF and their collusion with Hong Kong triads /2
But the radical wing of Hong Kong’s protest movement seems to have concluded that in order to deal with Carrie Lam and her Beijing overlord Xi Jinping one needs to ‘fight fire with fire’ /3
As @Aureliano_no_24 and I have consistently argued nonviolent campaigns of noncooperation are empirically proven to be more effective to destroy dictatorships than violent means /4
Those who still believe in the utility of violent resistance should watch this interview with Gene Sharp, an intellectual giant and peace activist whose scholarship has helped bring about regime change around the world /5
Time and again I have pointed out that there are 198 methods of nonviolent direct action and noncooperation. While some have been tested in Hong Kong it is increasingly clear to me that Hong Kong activists lack knowledge and training in these methods /6
With the current dynamic it is just a matter of time that we’ll see a highly symbolic casualty - on the protesters or police side - which will accelerate this downward spiral of police violence and militant counter-measures /7
To summarise: The #HongKongPoliceForce has become a People’s Armed Police (PAP) in disguise. Hong Kongers increasingly see the #HKPF as an occupying force. My concern is that we may have already passed the point of no return /8
But don’t expect a repeat of Tiananmen in Hong Kong. Instead we are fast approaching Northern Ireland 2.0 /End
Herr @Ischinger stellt auf Twitter gerne Fragen, die er beantwortet haben möchte. Wenn er aber gefragt wird, soll man seine Position aus Veröffentlichungen rekonstruieren. Schauen wir uns also mal seine Unterstützung für Scholz an & befassen uns dann mit seiner China-Expertise /1
n-tv berichtet zur Maischberger-Runde das @ischinger letzte Woche in 🇨🇳 war, womöglich um @Bundeskanzler Scholz bei der Organisation einer Friedenskonferenz zu 🇺🇦 mit Beteiligung von 🇨🇳 und 🇷🇺 in der 🇨🇭im Juni zu unterstützen /2 n-tv.de/politik/Ischin…
@ischinger @Bundeskanzler Das erklärt jetzt auch, warum @ischinger allergisch auf Kritik reagiert, z.B. wenn man die Eignung Xi Jinpings 🇨🇳 als Friedensvermittler zwischen 🇷🇺 und 🇺🇦 in Frage stellt /3
A @Tagesspiegel report suggests that @Bundeskanzler Scholz still believes in the falsified Steinmeier doctrine of 'Rapprochement through interweaving'. According to this foreign policy paradigm, economic ties with autocracies lead to mutual dependency and stability. A short 🧵/1
In my forthcoming book 'Germany and China: How Entanglement Undermines Freedom, Prosperity, and Security' (2024) I deconstruct the Steinmeier doctrine. This paradigm is let down by mirroring and misunderstandings about the nature of democratisation processes in autocracies /2
As I argue in my book, the Scholz administration may not be able to learn from the mistakes made in Russian policy in time to adequately address the challenges posed by China's Xi regime. Scholz's reported comments confirm my concerns /3
Warum werden in 🇩🇪 ständig solche fragwürdigen Standpunkte zu 🇨🇳 veröffentlicht? Hier wird doch tatsächlich eine aktive Industriepolitik mit Wirtschaftsnationalismus gleichgesetzt. Das Prinzip Hoffnung ("Kooperation") soll es mal wieder richten /1 archive.is/rtkdK
Solche Ratschläge erinnern mich Sandschneiders Buch von 2011. Er argumentierte, dass Europa einfach nur Macht abgeben brauche, um in Zukunft zu gewinnen. Solche Empfehlungen haben m.E. dazu beigetragen, dass Deindustrialisierung in 🇩🇪 und 🇪🇺 einfach hingenommen wurde /2
Egon Bahr fand Sandschneiders Buch seinerzeit übrigens sehr mutig und sprach von "aufregenden Befunden" /3
Wang Jisi's contribution to the CSIS @CSISCBE report "U.S.-China Scholarly Recoupling" is indeed very interesting, especially when we also read the text by Alastair Iain Johnston about risk management in academic cooperation with China. A short 🧵/1
Wang mentions 'increased sensitivities' in the Xi era 'with regard to China studies in areas such as ancient and modern history, CPC history, ethnic relations, religion, social welfare, demography, and culture, not to mention the current political and economic transformation' /2
This point is important when we read Johnston's piece. He rightly criticises Xi's over-securitisation creating obstacles for collaborative 🇺🇸-🇨🇳research. Johnston also makes an interesting remark about different types of risks in academic cooperation with Chinese universities /2
Benjamin Creutzfeldt has written a very problematic opinion editorial for @China_Table. Employing cherry-picked anecdotes about China's alleged openness he uses logical fallacies to make his case for an unconditional 🇩🇪 engagement with 🇨🇳. A short 🧵/1 table.media/en/china/stand…
To support his claim that "the Chinese" still welcome us with open arms, he invokes motives such as a Lunar New Year Festival, pandas, student exchanges, Huawei study tours, and conference invitations. The introduction of 14-day visa free travel to China is also mentioned /2
He then discusses 🇩🇪s strained political relationship with 🇨🇳. He blames (1) strict quarantine requirements during Covid-19; (2) German 'unease' about the authoritarian form of politics in China, and (3) supposedly negative media reporting on the current state of affairs /3
Alpermann @BjoernAlpermann und Schubert @gstuzi sollten sich besser informieren. Sowohl in 🇬🇧 als auch in 🇩🇪 habe ich vor der Gefahr der KPCh für die Wissenschaftsfreiheit gewarnt und Selbstzensur unter Chinawissenschaftlern kritisiert. Ein 🧵 mit konkreten Beispielen /1
Als Mitglied einer Task and Finish Group der Universität Nottingham habe ich 2020-21 an der Umsetzung der UUK guidelines 'Managing risks in Internationalisation: Security related issues' mitgewirkt (s.a. mein Artikel in @APuZ_bpb ) /2 bpb.de/shop/zeitschri…
@APuZ_bpb Als Mitglied der Academic Freedom and Internationalisation Working Group (AFIWG) habe ich am Model Code of Conduct mitgeschrieben () und den CoC bei diversen UUK-Veranstaltungen vorgestellt /3 hrc.sas.ac.uk/sites/default/…