This has become a vicious circle of #HongKongPoliceForce brutality leading to increasingly militant counter-actions by protesters. It’s very hard to see where the off ramp is /1
As I have stated previously the HKSAR government has morphed into a local mafia state. Carrie Lam is politically responsible for the militarization and weaponization of the #HKPF and their collusion with Hong Kong triads /2
But the radical wing of Hong Kong’s protest movement seems to have concluded that in order to deal with Carrie Lam and her Beijing overlord Xi Jinping one needs to ‘fight fire with fire’ /3
As @Aureliano_no_24 and I have consistently argued nonviolent campaigns of noncooperation are empirically proven to be more effective to destroy dictatorships than violent means /4
Those who still believe in the utility of violent resistance should watch this interview with Gene Sharp, an intellectual giant and peace activist whose scholarship has helped bring about regime change around the world /5
Time and again I have pointed out that there are 198 methods of nonviolent direct action and noncooperation. While some have been tested in Hong Kong it is increasingly clear to me that Hong Kong activists lack knowledge and training in these methods /6
With the current dynamic it is just a matter of time that we’ll see a highly symbolic casualty - on the protesters or police side - which will accelerate this downward spiral of police violence and militant counter-measures /7
To summarise: The #HongKongPoliceForce has become a People’s Armed Police (PAP) in disguise. Hong Kongers increasingly see the #HKPF as an occupying force. My concern is that we may have already passed the point of no return /8
But don’t expect a repeat of Tiananmen in Hong Kong. Instead we are fast approaching Northern Ireland 2.0 /End
Im Herbst 2024 erschienen in der Zeitschrift SIRIUS Rezensionen zu China-Büchern, darunter Oertels neuestes Werk und mein Buch 'Germany and China'. Auffällig war ein Verriss von Susanne Weigelin-Schwiedrziks 'China und die Neuordnung der Welt' (Brandstätter Verlag, 2023) /1
Trotz detaillierter Kenntnisse zu Chinas Außen- und Innenpolitik gelänge es der Autorin nicht ein "differenziertes, kohärentes und realistisches Bild von der derzeitigen internationalen Krisensituation und der Rolle Chinas darin zu vermitteln" /2 degruyter.com/document/doi/1…
Konkret bemängelt der Rezensent Krause, dass Weigelin-Schwiedrzik Chinas Position im Ukraine-Krieg als neutral darstelle, obwohl Peking "ein möglichst schnelles Ende des Ukraine-Kriegs will – aber zugunsten Russlands und am besten mit der völligen Unterwerfung der Ukraine" /3
Tomorrow’s German election could be Europe’s most pivotal since Brexit 2016. Can a functioning coalition emerge? Or will Germany turn ungovernable? What’s at stake for Europe’s future? A short 🧵/1
Polls favour @_FriedrichMerz (CDU/CSU) to lead Germany’s next government. Yet preference falsification and @dieLinke's rise in the polls signal a wild card. Tomorrow evening we could be in for a surprising election result /2
@_FriedrichMerz @dieLinke And have a look at this electoral map. The far-right @AfD is set to surge in the East. The centre-right @CDUCSUbt is poised to win big in the West. What does that tell us about the state of German unification thirty-five years after the fall of the Berlin Wall? /3
Folks need to understand that elite capture / strategic corruption is real: in the 🇺🇸, in 🇪🇺 , wherever you look. For too long we assumed that our democratic institutions could withstand the onslaught of corporate and foreign government lobbying / influence / interference /1
What started with the Schroederisation of politics has now morphed into institutional corruption. This is the inconvenient truth, the 🐘 in the room. We now not only need strengthened 🇪🇺 military capabilities but also national and transnational movements against corruption /2
Self-serving European elites contributed to today’s mess just as much as the true believers of the MAGA movement. Both have major blind spots, just different ones. The resulting #hypernormalisation prevents necessary reforms aimed at enhancing transparency and accountability /3
German strategic culture remains stuck in the outdated paradigm of economic interdependence. Although 'change through trade' has been discredited, no new strategic framework has emerged to take its place. This shift would require not only new ideas but also fresh leadership /1
I was intrigued by Johannes Volkmann @jbvolkmann, a 27-year-old candidate for the German Bundestag. As the grandson of the former German Chancellor Helmut Kohl, he may come to represent a new generation of German politicians /2 hessenschau.de/politik/johann…
I noted with great interest that he has an academic background in Contemporary Chinese Studies from Oxford, complemented by his year spent in 🇨🇳 at both Tongji University and Peking University. He appears to possess the much-needed 'China competence.' /3 johannes-volkmann.de/uebermich/
Warum strebt der "treueste Verbündete des Kanzlers" (Mona Jaeger in der FAZ, 5.2.2025, ) Wolfgang Schmidt @W_Schmidt_ ein Bundestagsmandat an? Kann er sich wirklich von @Bundeskanzler Scholz emanzipieren? Ich habe da so meine Zweifel. Ein kurzer 🧵/1 archive.is/G4Xk5
"Seit 2002 arbeitet Schmidt für Scholz," schreibt Mona Jaeger, "er war sein Büroleiter zu Generalsekretärszeiten, sein Stabschef als Arbeitsminister, Staatssekretär im Finanzministerium, dann als Kanzleramtsminister Organisator der Ampelkoalition" /2 faz.net/aktuell/politi…
In der NZZ wurde ein Oppositionspolitiker zitiert, der Schmidt als «Machtabsicherungsapologet» bezeichnete. Es gehe darum, Scholz gegen Kritik in Schutz zu nehmen. Er ziehe ausserdem "einen Schutzwall um Scholz, intransparent und unkontrollierbar." /3 archive.is/Kh1fH#selectio…
I would find op-eds in favour of China engagement more convincing if they would not rest on logical fallacies. @Bkerrychina's article "Labour is right to forge more trade links with China – not doing so would be folly" is a case in point. A short 🧵 /1 theguardian.com/commentisfree/…
Brown rightly points out that in the past decade or so the UK's approach to China has not been very consistent. But in my view he also frames the ongoing policy debates in terms of a false choice: as if we either have to choose between (naive) engagement or (full) decoupling /2
The point of contention is also not that Reeves went to China. German foreign minister @al_baerbock did the same. But she also had a robust public exchange with her Chinese counterpart Qin Gang. Reeves was much more deferential to the CCP. And that deserves to be critiqued /3