Hassan I. Hassan Profile picture
Aug 26, 2019 11 tweets 3 min read Read on X
Very interesting statement just issued by Saudi Arabia and the UAE -- an agreement to support the Yemeni government & what seems to be a reversal of the UAE "withdrawal."

Speaks of a troops REDEPLOYMENT (details in following tweets)

spa.gov.sa/1961766
Joint UAE-Saudi statement: the two countries expressed concern over events in Aden and then in Abyan and Shabwa & both "affirm the continuation of all political, military, relief & development by the countries of the coalition that came to the rescue of the Yemeni people."

1/
Statement: the governments of the two countries reject & condemn accusations & smear campaigns targeting the UAE in the wake of these events & affirm commitment to preserve the Yemeni state & its unity under the legitimate president [Abdrabbuh Mansur Hadi]
Statement: both countries affirm the need to fully comply with the joint committee formed by the coalition's leadership and for "the redeployment of forces in the framework of the military effort by the Coalition."

END
The most important parts
(The joint statement comes a day after these interesting tweets by the UAE minister of state for foreign affairs, with different language affirming the UAE’s subordinate role in Yemen & that it would completely defer to Saudi Arabia for its role there.)
In other words, new things:

• The UAE is recommitting to the war effort in Yemen & redeploying forces there
• The two countries reached an agreement to not split Yemen (some assumed the two were quietly on the same page)
• Both agree to continue the fight against the Houthis
(So much for “no friction between the two brothers”. There was/is, and it follows increasing challenges to the UAE allies in southern Yemen & anger in Riyadh. Reminds of Haftar’s failure to seize the Libyan capital despite unprecedented backing from his regional sponsors.)
Old statements like this were untrue:

“The United Arab Emirates had been planning its recent troop drawdown in Yemen for over a year and coordinated its move with key ally Saudi Arabia, a senior Emirati official said on Monday.”

reuters.com/article/us-yem…
“Dissent” view about the UAE’s recommitment to the war effort from Dubai police ex-chief & top advisor:

“No reason is left for us to stay with the cowards ... the Emirati people demand from their government to leave the Northerners [Hadi govt] fighting the Houthis on their own.”
(Importantly, these views & others additionally indicate how the joint statement made yesterday has been understood locally... that it was a reversal of recent moves & a recommitment to the war effect against the Houthis.)

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More from @hxhassan

Nov 9
Folks, there is misreporting on Qatar’s decision to expel Hamas.

Reuters’ reporting is the most accurate — and logical — so far.

Context in following tweets:
Reuters reports it as an ultimatum, Doha warning it’ll pull out of Gaza ceasefire mediations until Hamas & Israel “demonstrate a sincere willingness to return to the negotiating table”.

Not just expulsion, because the US asked it to expel Hamas.

>>>
This is still in the unofficial leaking territory. Reuters also cites officials as saying the office "no longer serves its purpose", which requires more detail but seems to be a separate issue beyond mediation.
Read 10 tweets
Sep 30
As always, Syria is the most important "non-important" story in the Middle East -- the story that doesn't seem to matter, but ends up being a key piece of the puzzle.

A short #thread
Two stories that begin to demonstrate how Syria is central:

How Israel penetrated Hezbollah in Syria - FT

And my deep-dive story just before the killing of Nasrallah on the tricky game Assad is playing since Day 1 of the Gaza war ft.com/content/663881…
newlinesmag.com/argument/syria…
For months, actually, the chatter in Syria & elsewhere is that the Israeli attacks against Iran were enabled by collaborators from within the Syrian regime.

Even the “car crash” of a top Assad aide in July was interpreted in this context.

apnews.com/article/syria-…
Read 7 tweets
Sep 21
When Iran’s Gen. Qassem Soleimani was assassinated in 2020, there was intense debate over whether his killing would set back Iran’s proxy warfare in the Middle East. It took years for us to see the effects of it, and few today dispute that the vacuum he left remains unfilled. 👇


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Some believed his killing won’t matter significantly, because he’d already built a well-oiled machine.
But even for sympathizers his absence has been felt on multiple key occasions. In Iraq and Syria, there are numerous examples where the machine has been degraded both tactically and strategically. Something acknowledged by insiders or people close to their circles.
Read 5 tweets
Oct 20, 2023
I haven’t seen such relentless interrogation of Palestinian leadership before, esp. in Arabic.

On Saudi Arabia’s main TV channel, Hamas leader is clearly startled by the intensity of the questions & responses to his answers.

Crucial points in next tweets
One of the most significant ones to Hamas leader by the Saudi TV interviewer is why Hamas expects Arab countries to back them up when Hamas hadn’t consulted them before carrying out an operation akin to declaration of war.

‘You didn’t consult even fellow Palestinians.’
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Hamas leader gets visibly angry when she asks him if he would condemn Israeli civilian killings.


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Read 9 tweets
Oct 19, 2023
Two crucial points. Al Faisal isn’t an official, but you can think of this speech as the *clearest* indicator of the Saudi leadership’s thinking beyond the generic official remarks. Thus: Saudi is messaging that the Gaza war must NOT end the Saudi-Israeli normalization talks 1/2
Second, and despite the growing conventional wisdom about this, I never believed even for a second that the latest round of the conflict has sabotaged the Saudi-Israeli normalization talks.

They’ll be resumed, albeit in greater secrecy than for a while until progress is made.
Saudi approach to such crises isn’t hard to decipher if analysts know Saudi Arabia.

When Iran struck inside Saudi this time in 2019, the consensus was clear, that Riyadh would hit back with U.S. help.

Against consensus I predicted what’d happen, to a T 👇




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Read 6 tweets
Nov 30, 2022
ISIS announces its leader Abu al-Hassan Al-Qurashi has been killed in action, and declares Abu al-Hussain al-Hussaini al-Qurashi as its new leader.

[Important to note that this is quite possibly a fake announcement. See next tweets]
Scenario 1 is that the ISIS leader was killed "accidentally" during a raid or fighting without him being known to whoever killed him (the US, Iraqis, Kurds) so those did not know they killed the leader.

That'd be unprecedented, but possible.

Another scenario is this is fake:
The above scenario wouldn't explain basic information we already have. The suspected leader was arrested by Turkey, confessed he was made a leader against his wishes middleeasteye.net/news/turkey-is… catching an ISIS leader alive would be unprecedented, & extremely damaging to the group >>
Read 9 tweets

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