Kalu Aja Profile picture
Aug 26, 2019 24 tweets 10 min read Read on X
If you had N1m, how would you invest it?

This question is really asking how you would allocate N1 million amongst different asset classes. But before we consider that, let us start from the basics.

#FinPlanAssetAllocation
What are asset classes?

Asset classes are securities that exhibit the same characteristics. For instance, Fixed Income as an asset class, will include all financial instruments that pay fixed returns.

#FinPlanAssetAllocation
They will range from “risk free” securities like Sovereign Bonds, to risky junk Bonds issued by the private sector. Look at asset classes as cars that take you to an investment destination.

#FinPlanAssetAllocation
Variable income as an asset class group will include all financial instruments whose return are not fixed, but variable in nature. These asset classes range from Equities, to include Real Estate Investment Trust (REITS), and even Derivatives.

#FinPlanAssetAllocation
So, how would you allocate N1 million?

Well, it depends on:

1. your age,

2. how much risk you are willing to take, and

3. how long you want to wait before you need your principal.

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To be clear, we are investing, not saving. What is the difference? Saving is simply the act of putting money away, while investing is the act of putting away money with a specific objective in mind, & the expectation of a positive return.

#FinPlanAssetAllocation
First consideration: how old are you?

Age is a very important factor because the younger you are, the more risk you can take. Why? If you are younger & lose all your investment capital, you have a better chance of starting over & replacing lost income

#FinPlanAssetAllocation
Also on a positive note, age in finance means more compounding periods i.e., age means that your investments have more opportunities for earning to be ploughed back to grow compounded

#FinPlanAssetAllocation.
If you are younger, its advised you invest more in variable income securities like equities, because over time they offer greater chances of higher Capital Appreciation returns, but with a higher risk.

#FinPlanAssetAllocation
If you are nearing retirement, then you should not under any circumstance invest more than 20% in variable income securities like Equity, no matter the return potential.

#FinPlanAssetAllocation
Ok...give you time to take it all in..we discuss Risk Profile and Investment Duration tommorow..

Same time

#FinPlanAssetAllocation
Second consideration: What are your objectives?

If your investment objective is to GROW your investment capital ie Capital Appreciation Goal, then you want to invest in variable income asset classes like shares.

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This is because variable income securities can appreciate your principal and have a higher propensity to beat inflation than fixed income securities. Keep in mind that more variable investment means more risk.

#FinPlanAssetAllocation
If, however, your objective is to protect your principal from loss with a Capital Preservation goal, then you should invest in fixed income. The risk here is that your returns may not beat inflation.

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Last Consideration: How long do you have to stay invested?

If you have a long investment horizon, i.e. you can keep your investment in the financial market without seeking it back for more than 5 years, then you want to stay in variable income like equities.
This is because equities as an asset class allow the investor participate in the long term success of the company by reaping capital Appreciation and/or Dividends.

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However, if your will want your investment capital back in less than 24 months, it is advisable you invest in fixed income because you can determine exactly how long you want to stay invested.

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Let us look at scenarios:

Recently-employed 21-year old Ade, was gifted N1 million by his rich aunty. He wants to save this to fund his wedding in 10 years. How should he invest this fund?

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I recommend:

70% in Variable Income, specifically mid and large capitalization stock

20% in Fixed Income, specifically 2yr Saving Bond

10% in Cash as Money on Call with a Bank

Why?

#FinPlanAssetAllocation
His Objective is long term capital appreciation so Shares 70%

He may need cash before 10 years, so I invested 20% in safe Government bonds payable every 24 months. This is also diversification to protect the portfolio.

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Ade may need cash to buy his engagement ring, we put 10% in Call bank to prevent breaking any invested principal before maturity.

Asset Allocation is the most important ingridient for investment success.
Lesson is basically done but I will give you homework😊

2. Okoro, 64, about to retire, received N1m as gratuity advance payment. How should he deploy this?

Can you post a sample Asset allocation for Okoro?

I will post mine tommorow....we can compare

#FinPlanAssetAllocation
These case studies have picked both extremes of investors. You may find yourself with similar objectives as either examples, e.g., low risk profile but seeking capital appreciation, which then means that you need a balanced portfolio.

#FinPlanAssetAllocation
Again this is not a recommendation to buy or sell, shares are very risky and you can lose 100% of your capital....always consult a financial adviser before investing.

tommorow....same time

#FinPlanAssetAllocation

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More from @FinPlanKaluAja1

Apr 9
Let's compare assets during these turbulent times.

I have picked five asset classes:

Gold, represented by GLD ETF
US Stocks, represented by VTI
US Property, represented by VNQ
Digital Assets, represented by Bitcoin BTC
US Bonds, represented by UCITS

Let's track performance for one week, one month, a Year, and Five years.
What if I bought 5 years ago?

One word, Bitcoin. It's not even close; BTC killed the competition, went to the moon and back.

It's risk on, so cash rotated from bonds to stocks and, curiously, gold.

Property posted anemic returns. Image
About a year ago?

Markets grew slightly nervous, reducing risk-taking.

Investors shifted from high-risk BTC and stocks to gold and bonds. Gold led, followed by Bitcoin.

Stocks and property lagged. Image
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Mar 17
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What makes the GDP rise or fall?
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It's a combination of spending and net exports

1. Consumptuin rises, GDP rises
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Take the US, for example. Personal consumption (buying cars, stoves, healthcare, etc.) is about 70% of the US GDP. If there is economic uncertainty or inflation, households stop spending, which causes a fall in consumption that fuels a recession.

The US economy shrank by 0.9% between April and June 2022, meaning a recession, because the earlier quarter was also negative. The Biden team denied there was a recession. Sec Yellen said "growth is slowing"
,Image
Thus, from April 2022, the US started spending $1t in debt every quarter to compensate for the fall in private consumption.

If you remove the government spending that created most government jobs, the US economy will not be in a recession but a depression.

What Donald Trump is doing is taking out the artificial. Debt-fueled growth from the marketsImage
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Feb 26
Let's review the recently published Q4 GDP numbers for Nigeria.

In summary, the headline figures look good

Quarter on Quarter, GDP growth posted 3.84%
Year on Year, GDP growth posted 3.40%

These are good trends, shows the economic resilience of the Nigerian economy in spite of persistent double digit inflation and falling consumption,

But.......the dangers show up when you dig deeperImage
First of, Nigeria's GDP growth is driven by the non oil sector.

The Non-Oil sector contributed 95.34% to the GDP growth for Q4 2024 in Nigeria

The Nigerian economy is not driven by crude oil, the Nigerian economy is diversified, the Nigeria FX revenue are not diversified.

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I call them the big three; in real terms they contributed

1. Agriculture 25%
2. Trade 13%
3. IT/Telco 17%

These three sectors contribute more than 50% of GDP growth in Nigeria. These sectors, especially agriculture employ the highest number of Nigerians also.

This means, if these sectors boom, the Nigerian GDP booms

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Read 9 tweets
Nov 26, 2024
Lets review the Q3 2024 GDP report for Nigeria

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In Nigeria's case, the total amount of "output" this quarter is N71t, if we factor in inflation, it becomes N20t

good? next slideImage
If you compare the GDP growth in Q2 2024 to Q3 2024, the growth is just 0.27%. This is anemic

Nigeria needs to grow her GDP faster than population growth which we can estimate to be 3%. Thus to grow at 4% per annum, Nigeria has to post a growth GDP 1% GDP growth per quarter

Looking at annual GDP, Nigeria posted 2.74% for 2023 to compare Ethiopia grew by 7.9%, and Ivory Coast grew by 6.5% in 2023Image
What drives Nigeria's GDP?

Nigeria's GDP growth is driven by three key sectors
1. Agriculture
2. Trade
3. Telecoms

For Nigeria to grow her GDP, it must grow these sectors. so lets take a look at how these sectors performed in Q3 2024 Image
Read 8 tweets
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Read 13 tweets

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