I had a client in Lagos, very rich and liquid guy, was once a bank MD.

The guy was renting, back then he was staying in a house in VI in early 2000's, his rent was N8m. i knew because i wrote the checks to the landlord.

One day i asked him, "why don't you have your own home"

He said,

"Kalu, if i decide to build a house, to my taste, it will cost me N300m. I can use that N300m and make at least N50m a year. This home, whatever i ask the landlord, he does, because he does not want to lose me as a tenant, its painted annually, etc. i don't want to tie down my capital in a home"

Thoughts? This is actually a math question, its opportunity cost.

The cost of buying the opportunity cost of investing N300m in say Treasury Bill paying 17%

Why is the Naira Gaining

If you exchanged your Naira for USD in 2015 and held it until September 2025, that $1, when converted back to Naira, would be worth about 644.14% more.

However, the exchange value of the Naira has depreciated over the years as inflation has eroded its ability to serve as a reliable store of value.

If you exchanged your Naira for USD in September 2024 and held it, the $1, when converted back to Naira, would be worth 11.12% less. The Naira has strengthened

So, the question naturally is Why has the Naira gained strength? And what can sustain its strength?
First, an introduction to currencies

A currency note represents a legal means to trade in goods and services. If I want to buy a luxury flat in Nairobi, I need Kenyan shillings or US Dollars. I can pay with US dollars because the US is the global settlement currency. Similarly, if Kenya’s want Nollywood movies, they will need Naira or US dollars.

Thus, if I am in Nigeria and buy Kenyan goods, the value of the Kenyan shilling will rise, and the value of the Naira will fall.

Currency notes issued by the Nigerian Government.

Look closely, the Nigerian pound has "promise to pay on demand one pound" What does that mean? The note says One Pound already, so what is being promised?

Let's talk about money. The paper you have in your wallet is Money... It's not actually "money".

Money is the gold, silver, or assets held by the Central Bank or nation that issues the currency. A Naira note is simply the Central Bank of Nigeria saying, "if you give us gold, we give you Naira" and "if you give us our Naira, we will give you back gold".

Household Consumption in Nigeria Has Declined

The alarming drop in consumption rates in Nigeria is not discussed enough. According to a report by the Nigerian Bureau of Statistics titled "Nigerian Gross Domestic Product Report (Expenditure and Income Approach) (Q1, Q2 2024)," published in July 2025, the data reveals a troubling trend: real household consumption expenditure has been declining since Q3 of 2023. Specifically, household consumption expenditure fell by -42.28% in Q1 2024 and -61.18% in Q2 2024, reflecting lower rates compared to the same quarters in 2023. On a quarter-on-quarter basis, real household consumption expenditure decreased by 45.71% in Q1 2024 and plummeted by 99.24% in Q2 2024.

These figures are difficult to digest. This sharp decline in consumption is one reason why many foreign multinationals are exiting Nigeria; Nigerians today struggle to afford anything priced in dollars, including imported PMS (Premium Motor Spirit).

Two points on Iran and the Strait of Hormuz

1. Crude oil accounts for about 85% of Iran's government revenue. Iran exports approximately 90% of its oil via the Strait of Hormuz

2. China is the largest purchaser of Iranian oil. Closing the Strait of Hormuz means China gets less oil than it needs from Iran; thus, China will go elsewhere, possibly to Russia. Not smart to lose a key export market to a swing exporter

Closing the Strait of Hormuz to 90% of your oil exports is like resigning from your high-paying job so you don't pay alimony to your ex-wife
Instead of typing one liners, do some research. You are seriously comparing the volume an oil tanker can carry with the volume a train can carry?

I asked Grok

“Approximately 90% of Iran’s oil exports are transported via sea. Iran produces around 3.2 million barrels per day (bpd) of crude oil, with about 2.6 million bpd exported. Of these exports, roughly 2.34 million bpd are shipped through maritime routes, primarily via the Strait of Hormuz from Persian Gulf terminals like Kharg Island. The remaining 10% (around 260,000 bpd) can potentially be exported via the Goreh-Jask pipeline to the Jask terminal on the Gulf of Oman, though actual usage of this route has been minimal, dropping to less than 70,000 bpd by September 2024 and ceasing thereafter. Non-maritime exports, such as via rail or land routes, are negligible for oil due to infrastructure limitations”

A Financial plan is a process

You go from A, to B then C

So whats Lets review the steps 1. Have a Plan

First and foremost, it's important to define your purpose for investing or delaying consumption.

Understanding the “why” behind your decisions informs the “how” you should proceed.

For example, if you're investing or postponing consumption today in order to spend during retirement in 20 years, your investment strategy will differ significantly from if you're saving to consume next year.

Being clear about your goals will help you create an effective investment strategy

Let's compare assets during these turbulent times.

I have picked five asset classes:

Gold, represented by GLD ETF
US Stocks, represented by VTI
US Property, represented by VNQ
Digital Assets, represented by Bitcoin BTC
US Bonds, represented by UCITS

Let's track performance for one week, one month, a Year, and Five years. What if I bought 5 years ago?

One word, Bitcoin. It's not even close; BTC killed the competition, went to the moon and back.

It's risk on, so cash rotated from bonds to stocks and, curiously, gold.

Property posted anemic returns.

The US Markets are on a diet.

What makes the GDP rise or fall?
.
It's a combination of spending and net exports

1. Consumptuin rises, GDP rises
2. Investment rises, GDP rises
3. Government Spending rises, GDP rises
4. More Exports than Imports, GDP Rises A recession, two negative quarters, happens when consumption or investment falls.

Take the US, for example. Personal consumption (buying cars, stoves, healthcare, etc.) is about 70% of the US GDP. If there is economic uncertainty or inflation, households stop spending, which causes a fall in consumption that fuels a recession.

The US economy shrank by 0.9% between April and June 2022, meaning a recession, because the earlier quarter was also negative. The Biden team denied there was a recession. Sec Yellen said "growth is slowing"
,

Let's review the recently published Q4 GDP numbers for Nigeria.

In summary, the headline figures look good

Quarter on Quarter, GDP growth posted 3.84%
Year on Year, GDP growth posted 3.40%

These are good trends, shows the economic resilience of the Nigerian economy in spite of persistent double digit inflation and falling consumption,

But.......the dangers show up when you dig deeper First of, Nigeria's GDP growth is driven by the non oil sector.

The Non-Oil sector contributed 95.34% to the GDP growth for Q4 2024 in Nigeria

The Nigerian economy is not driven by crude oil, the Nigerian economy is diversified, the Nigeria FX revenue are not diversified.

...stay with me

Lets review the Q3 2024 GDP report for Nigeria

In simple terms, GDP means Gross Domestic Product, look at it like output. If a bakery makes 100 Agege loaves of bread and each loaf costs N100, then the GDP of that bakery is N100,000.00

In Nigeria's case, the total amount of "output" this quarter is N71t, if we factor in inflation, it becomes N20t

good? next slide If you compare the GDP growth in Q2 2024 to Q3 2024, the growth is just 0.27%. This is anemic

Nigeria needs to grow her GDP faster than population growth which we can estimate to be 3%. Thus to grow at 4% per annum, Nigeria has to post a growth GDP 1% GDP growth per quarter

Looking at annual GDP, Nigeria posted 2.74% for 2023 to compare Ethiopia grew by 7.9%, and Ivory Coast grew by 6.5% in 2023

On Domm Accounts, Please Cease and Desist

In May 1998, The Government of Pakistan froze all foreign currency accounts (FCA) estimated to hold $7.56b in an emergency action declared to protect the economy. The Government of Pakistan instructed banks to pay Pakistanis receiving $ salaries from offshore companies in local currency at inter-bank rates. All dollar assets were converted to the local currency.

The effect of these actions was devastating to the economy of Pakistan.

NNPC Ltd Project Gazelle Funding Limited Explainer

1. Nigeria needs forex to settle her FX obligations including an outstanding obligation of over $7b; thus, the NNPC arranged a $3.3b emergency loan from AFRIEXIMBANK (AFEX) on behalf of the Federal Government of Nigeria. 2. The loan structure involves the NNPC Limited receiving cash today via an SPV called Project Gazelle Funding Limited, sponsored by the NNPC Limited. The NNPC promises to repay AFEX with crude oil, equivalent to the principal borrowed plus an interest element of 11.85% APY.

Let us talk about inflation and my small town in a Local Government Area called Ohafia in Abia State.

My Town In Ohafia
In my town, there is one big shop. It's got everything: groceries and also a fridge. In the evenings, locals gather for a cold beer in front of the shop. It's the "mall", the centre of entertainment.

In regular times, prices in that shop reflect prices in Nigeria with a bit of margin for the cost of transportation. My town is an agrarian community with little disposable income.

Urban Myths

1. Local refining will reduce the cost of local PMS. FALSE. PMS pricing is based primarily on the cost of crude priced in $, not the cost of refining

2. Currency float will make $ flow in. FALSE. A float is a necessary but not sufficient measure to attract $ inflow 3. A strong currency translates to a strong economy. FALSE. A Strong currency means exports from that county are not competitive. Exports boost GDP and a weak currency makes exports competitive.

South Korea and Japan have weak currencies

What most have missed is the peg, they see only the devaluation

Peg removal means the Naira can go to $1:1000 or $1:300

It's now based on Supply of $.

If remittance people vex and send $25b in August alone then $1: becomes N300

If it devalues, it means it can appreciate. The difference is in the past CBN tried to make it appreciate by restricting demand, thus your naira card stopped working

Now the strategy is to focus on Supply (SS) by incentivizing holders of $ to inflow to Nigerian banks at the market rate

It won't happen in 1 month

1. CBN removes peg, so CBN rate is market driven

2. CBN is not the "market" , FMDQ/banks/BDC are the market, the determine prices via demand and supply

3. You want $, you go to your bank, you bank gives you bid and offer based on their $ supply, that's the bank rate. 4. Your bank card will work IF your bank has sufficient credit to fund your card. Its no longer CBN funding, it's banks/BDC buying and selling

5. CBN is publishing the "average" of what the banks and BDCs sell. It won't reflect equally immediately, supply is lagging

1. Should the PMS subsidy go?
2. Yes. Why?
3. It's a waste of resources. In economics, there is always a scale of preference. "Cheap" PMS is good but not as important as health care or education. Currently, Nigeria spends more on PMS subsidies than on health 4. So to be clear, it's not a waste to subsidize PMS cost but as per scale of preference it's not top

5. PMS subsidy is currently more than the combined budget allocation to health & education. Removing subsidies means Nigerians pay market prices for PMS.

Economic points in Abia State Governor inauguration speech

"Our government shall be 100% pro-business. Government shall not be in competition with the private sector. It shall instead remain a facilitator"

Good baseline focus on PPP "Our government shall, launch a N10b MSME financing scheme, which will comprise conditional business grants and low interest loans to support a minimum of 20,000 MSMEs over the next 2 years and generate 100,000 direct jobs and another 200,000 indirect employments in the State"

Economic points in speech.

"The Central Bank must work towards a unified exchange rate. This will direct funds away from arbitrage into meaningful investment in the plant, equipment & jobs that power the real economy"

A devaluation of the Naira to remove arbitrage in works "Interest rates need to be reduced to increase investment and consumer purchasing in ways that sustain the economy at a higher level"

Interest rates react to inflation and growth. To reduce by FIAT is possible, but more "cheap" funds must be absorbed via output or inflation

In Genesis 25:29, we learn deferred compensation

In Jewish tradition, the first son receives a double portion of his father's estate.

Esau was the first son of his father, yet, he failed to understand the intrinsic value of his position (first son) & sold it.

#ChurchOfMoney Esau was granted stock options that would vest to him later. He sold those options to Jacob, stating in Gen 25;32 "What use to me are my right as the firstborn"

Esau then attempted to retain the future dividends of that sold position by not disclosing he sold them.

In Genesis 23, the Bible teaches how to negotiate business contracts to buy an asset

Abraham's wife Sarah has died in a foreign land, and Abraham decides to bury her there; thus, he needs land. As a foreigner, Abraham had no claim to any land; he decided to buy

#churchofmoney In Genesis 23:3, Abraham goes to the elders at the gate where contracts are made & offers to buy land; he is counter-offered to take any grave for free.

Abraham insists on paying for land (not a grave) & eventually is given land for free. Abraham persists in paying & does