My point about voters is that everyone you EVER interact w on political twitter, at political events falls into the tails of this distribution (2.5%). Most people who watch mainstream major networks news, read @nytimes or @WAPO,watch Sunday shows would fall within the 13.5% bands
Although there are certainly some primary voters who hail from the two 34% areas, the bulk of the two party's primary electorates come from the right & left flank of this graph, which means the far left & right are far more extreme than average & even the center and mods are more
conservative and liberal than the average electorate. For all the convo about the Dem primary, polling consistently shows only about 40% of all people who plan to cast ballots in it, people who as a group are already non-representative of the whole country, have watched a debate
Much of the people sitting in those two 34% bands are America's "disengaged" (as @pewresearch calls them). They aren't particularly ideological, but bc of that, they aren't all that inclined to participate (although this is NOT the only thing driving our low participation rates).
So when I give public lectures and interviews I try to remind my audiences that if they are hearing me talk, they are in the 1%. And when they look around confused I clarify, "no, no, not the income 1%, the information 1%. Th engagement 1%. And this is the crisis that underlies
every other crisis we have in American politics."
I want to add this follower Q to the thread in case other people need this frame of reference. Very good Q!
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🧵There are serious implications to the end of Elon and Trump’s partnership.
I have mentioned before, even having Elon exit stage left was great news for us, but having him kill off Trump’s Big “Beautiful” Bill.
Well, that could change everything.
Not only may we end up in a 2026 scenario where a major player (and his money) have removed themselves from the game, now we might even see Elon actively undermine Republicans up and down the ballot.
I would forfeit every Christmas gift I get from now to the end of time if we could only get Elon spending and working against Trump.
But wait….because it gets even better!!
🧵Trump's Executive Orders Serve One Sinister Purpose:
Inside Team Trump's Shrewd Strategy to Kill Democracy
Many times I’ve asked you to imagine what it would be like, what your thoughts, feelings, and beliefs about contemporary America would be like, if you were one of the 100 million plus Americans who can’t name their own state’s senators.
Vox dropped a recent piece that is firewalled, but I want you to read this short excerpt from their reporting:
Now, don’t focus on the particular demographics of this particular disenchanted voter.
She could be anyone: a man, a woman, old, young, Black or White. Believe it or not, there are even college educated Americans who have this kind of limited, simplistic frame for interpreting political events.
🧵STAT of the Week
Voters Have No Idea What Democrats Stand For
I want to show you something very important.
You know I talk non-stop about how Republicans have intentionally trashed the Democratic Party’s brand, but today I want to focus on how Democrats help them get away with it.
Last week David Shor from Blue Rose Research released their election autopsy. You can find the entire presentation this slide comes from here in a conversation between Ezra Klein and David Shor.
But I want to focus on just one key chart in Shor’s data, this. 👇
And I want to talk about it differently than Shor does in his interview. He doesn’t even notice what I am am going to show you.
🧵What is the Overton Window and Why Is Elon Musk Breaking It?
Elon Musk Bought Twitter to Make the Unacceptable Acceptable. And It's Working.
So many political science terms, so little time.
As I meet with more and more people from the upper tiers of Democratic Party politics it is becoming clear to me that there are key findings from peer-reviewed political science research that simply never trickled down to the general public.
Long time subscribers to this distinguished ‘Stack should know two of those political science concepts well by now: 1. the strength of party identification on public opinion and vote choice for the vast majority of the electorate and 2. the stunningly low levels of civic knowledge of American voters.
🧵STAT(S) Of the Week:
Never Interrupt Your Enemy When They Are Making a Mistake
I think, and I believe many of you must agree, it is best to live and strategize in the world we actually live in and not the one we wished we lived in.
Unfortunately, in the real world, even after two months of the terrible headlines we have been reading, the average public still likes Donald Trump way more than Democrats.
He still beats us by 20 points!
As I explained in a prior post, some of that low approval rating is coming from Democrats who don’t think the party is doing enough and saw the CR fight as the first chance to put up a fight.
Now, I want you to keep our 29% favorability rating in mind while considering last week and the decision by 9 senate Democrats to vote for the CR rather than shut down the government.
🧵Here's Why Democrats Can't Meet This Moment
And How We Can Fix It
Folks, for a long time I’ve wanted to introduce you to a book that came out a year or two ago by a journalist named Tina Nguyen called The MAGA Dairies.
There are a lot of reasons to read this book and for a long time I’ve held out hoping to get the author onto the podcast to talk about it with me, but I can’t afford to wait any longer.
Why?
Because this book is the perfect illustration of how and why the Republican Party has managed to radicalize 50 million people into wanting autocracy AND also the perfect explanation of why Democrats seem completely lost in response.
For quick background, Nguyen is now a professional journalist (or as she calls it, a real journalist) but she got her start in conservative media. Hers is a first person account of how Republicans attract, woo, and then network extensively young conservative talent.