My point about voters is that everyone you EVER interact w on political twitter, at political events falls into the tails of this distribution (2.5%). Most people who watch mainstream major networks news, read @nytimes or @WAPO,watch Sunday shows would fall within the 13.5% bands
Although there are certainly some primary voters who hail from the two 34% areas, the bulk of the two party's primary electorates come from the right & left flank of this graph, which means the far left & right are far more extreme than average & even the center and mods are more
conservative and liberal than the average electorate. For all the convo about the Dem primary, polling consistently shows only about 40% of all people who plan to cast ballots in it, people who as a group are already non-representative of the whole country, have watched a debate
Much of the people sitting in those two 34% bands are America's "disengaged" (as @pewresearch calls them). They aren't particularly ideological, but bc of that, they aren't all that inclined to participate (although this is NOT the only thing driving our low participation rates).
So when I give public lectures and interviews I try to remind my audiences that if they are hearing me talk, they are in the 1%. And when they look around confused I clarify, "no, no, not the income 1%, the information 1%. Th engagement 1%. And this is the crisis that underlies
every other crisis we have in American politics."
I want to add this follower Q to the thread in case other people need this frame of reference. Very good Q!
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🧵STAT of the Week
Voters Have No Idea What Democrats Stand For
I want to show you something very important.
You know I talk non-stop about how Republicans have intentionally trashed the Democratic Party’s brand, but today I want to focus on how Democrats help them get away with it.
Last week David Shor from Blue Rose Research released their election autopsy. You can find the entire presentation this slide comes from here in a conversation between Ezra Klein and David Shor.
But I want to focus on just one key chart in Shor’s data, this. 👇
And I want to talk about it differently than Shor does in his interview. He doesn’t even notice what I am am going to show you.
🧵What is the Overton Window and Why Is Elon Musk Breaking It?
Elon Musk Bought Twitter to Make the Unacceptable Acceptable. And It's Working.
So many political science terms, so little time.
As I meet with more and more people from the upper tiers of Democratic Party politics it is becoming clear to me that there are key findings from peer-reviewed political science research that simply never trickled down to the general public.
Long time subscribers to this distinguished ‘Stack should know two of those political science concepts well by now: 1. the strength of party identification on public opinion and vote choice for the vast majority of the electorate and 2. the stunningly low levels of civic knowledge of American voters.
🧵STAT(S) Of the Week:
Never Interrupt Your Enemy When They Are Making a Mistake
I think, and I believe many of you must agree, it is best to live and strategize in the world we actually live in and not the one we wished we lived in.
Unfortunately, in the real world, even after two months of the terrible headlines we have been reading, the average public still likes Donald Trump way more than Democrats.
He still beats us by 20 points!
As I explained in a prior post, some of that low approval rating is coming from Democrats who don’t think the party is doing enough and saw the CR fight as the first chance to put up a fight.
Now, I want you to keep our 29% favorability rating in mind while considering last week and the decision by 9 senate Democrats to vote for the CR rather than shut down the government.
🧵Here's Why Democrats Can't Meet This Moment
And How We Can Fix It
Folks, for a long time I’ve wanted to introduce you to a book that came out a year or two ago by a journalist named Tina Nguyen called The MAGA Dairies.
There are a lot of reasons to read this book and for a long time I’ve held out hoping to get the author onto the podcast to talk about it with me, but I can’t afford to wait any longer.
Why?
Because this book is the perfect illustration of how and why the Republican Party has managed to radicalize 50 million people into wanting autocracy AND also the perfect explanation of why Democrats seem completely lost in response.
For quick background, Nguyen is now a professional journalist (or as she calls it, a real journalist) but she got her start in conservative media. Hers is a first person account of how Republicans attract, woo, and then network extensively young conservative talent.
Plenty of Parallels between MAGA and the NAZI Movement
Folks, sometimes when I’m waging war against the MAGA Nazis on the twitter machine I come across something I read and then want you to read too.
This is why I am going to copy and paste this short piece from someone who would prefer to remain anonymous (with their permission!)
This analysis shows the parallels between MAGA and another fascists movement from 100 years ago who you know as the Nazis.
Here it is:
The comparison to Nazi Germany isn’t just a stretch—it’s a direct historical parallel unfolding in real time. Trump’s playbook is eerily similar to Hitler’s rise to power, and the signs are all there for those willing to see them.
Hitler exploited economic hardship and blamed outsiders and minorities for the country’s problems—Trump does the same with immigrants, refugees, and political opponents.
Hitler rose to power through democratic means, then dismantled democratic institutions from within—Trump is following the same script, stacking courts, gutting federal agencies, and openly threatening to imprison political opponents.
🧵The Tipping Point Is Upon Us:
Will MAGA Simply Ignore the Courts?
Ok folks, we’re three weeks in and have already entered the “constitutional crisis” phase of things.
I want to draw your attention to something critically important in the coming week. The federal courts have started to respond to Elon Musk’s illegal attack on federal agencies and programs like USAID.
This is going to create a real litmus test for the survival of our democracy.
Much of what Trump and Elon are doing is so flagrantly illegal, it is hard to imagine much of it surviving judicial review, even at the Supreme Court level.
Yes, the Federalist Society controls the Court, but on occasion at least three of their justices, Gorsuch, Barrett, and Roberts have ruled on the side of the Constitution against Trump. There is one major exception and that is the immunity case where they not only did their best to create an untouchable presidency, but also did it in a way to drag the case out of being tried before the election. So we know they have it in them.
I expect the lower courts to reject most of Trump’s power grab. All we can do is hope that those 3 justices recognize by creating the Imperial Presidency, they are rendering their own power obsolete.
The sitting Vice President went public with what us MAGA watchers already knew: there is a forceful movement within MAGA that argues federal court orders should simply be ignored.