1. It’s genuinely important for the country that Donald Trump isn’t re-elected to a second term.
2. The task of denying Trump a second term begins in the Republican primary. He might be denied renomination or be persuaded to withdraw (1968). At the very least, arguments will be made different from those in the Democratic primary that could move some voters away from Trump.
3. For now, the more challengers to Trump the merrier, as long as they are responsible public figures or sincerely repudiate past irresponsibilities. If the first wave of candidates weaken Trump and other, perhaps stronger, candidates then get in, so much the better.
4. But we will still owe a debt to those individuals who had the courage to step up at a time of utter moral collapse in the Republican party take a stand on behalf of their party and our country.
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Yesterday Trump, somewhat inexplicably, pivoted from the reason he'd previously offered, one that was innocuous from Trump's point of view, for ending contact with Epstein: Conflict over a real-estate deal.
2. Now he says Epstein "did something that was inappropriate. He hired help and I said don't ever do that again. He stole people that worked for me." Odd to suddenly throw that out there. But Virginia Giuffre was working as a 16-year old spa attendant at Mar-a-Lago in 2000,
3. ...when first approached by Maxwell. Did Trump actually break off relations with Epstein in 2005 because he knew the feds were closing in? Trump presumably knew where Maxwell had recruited Giuffre. Did his comment yesterday reflect a kind of memory of being worried that...
1. Like everyone else who's lived through the last decade, I've learned to doubt that anything Trump does, however gross, or any manifestation of Trumpism, however appalling, will make a difference.
But...maybe?
2. Maybe the disgusting comments about Puerto Rico and Hispanic Americans in general will cause some voters in Pennsylvania to turn away from Trump?
3. Maybe the racism about black Americans will remind some voters in Michigan which candidate respects them and which doesn't.
1. Good for the U.S. (though need to get rid of debt ceiling in 2025).
2. Good for Biden.
Re policy, domestic spending freezes no worse than the CRs that a GOP House would have produced. And over the four years spending on liberal priorities up.
2. Good for Biden (cont.)
Re politics: That it's two year deal very good. And if some on the left are unhappy, that doesn't hurt his case to moderate swing voters that they should vote for him again in 2024. Especially if there'll be a GOP House and/or Senate, which is likely.
3. Bad for Trump and Trumpism.
McCarthy's willingness to make the deal suggests that he (and other GOP elected leaders) will prioritize making the case for a GOP Congress in 2024 as needed to check (but also in a pinch to work with!) a Democratic president, a la Newt in 1996.
"[Delight] runs the risk of neglect at precisely the moment when delight might be most culturally beneficial...Slaves of anxiety and fear, surrounded by reasons for pessimism, we are in need of it. I would like to say a few words in defense of delight."
"The Marriage of Figaro is perhaps the last word on delight...By placing the laurel wreaths of artistic perfection on a comedy, Figaro is an invitation, in its details and in aggregate, to ponder the exquisiteness of delight."
"But it is this same fallible Count who...when confronted with his wife, when recognizing her, steps away from comedy. His request for forgiveness—the music leaves no doubt about this at all—is from the heart."
I'm less certain than @mkimmage that the request is from the heart.
"We must confess to being somewhat alarmed. Do our leaders, in the U.S. and Germany, have the sense of urgency that they ought to have? Do our leaders, in the U.S. and Germany, have the clarity of vision they might have?"
"This is no time for complacency. It’s time to reassert our unequivocal support for President Zelenskyy and the elected government in Kyiv. It’s actually time for more support for Ukraine and more pressure on Russia."
It's understandable that President Biden focused on domestic policy in his State of the Union speech. As a consequence perhaps, much was left unsaid about the state of the world. In the coming days and weeks, Biden should find an occasion to address these topics:
1. Iran. Not mentioned in the State of the Union. The president should express support for the brave women and men of Iran demanding freedom and democracy for their country. He could do so by sending a message to--or dropping by!-- the event Friday at Georgetown University...
1a. ...where leading pro-democracy Iranian activists who are abroad will be joining together to show unity and support for the demonstrators at home. And there are practical steps the Administration could take to increase pressure on the regime and to help the demonstrators.