The Ambassador's Brief Profile picture
Aug 26, 2019 27 tweets 6 min read Read on X
Weekly Geopolitical Brief

Three stories:

G7: @ColinKahl foreshadowed Trump hates it as (i) its substantiveness exposes his shallowness(ii) there are no parades (iii) it’s multilateral & he can’t play with others & (iv) he has to engage with democratic leaders & he likes despots
And that’s how it’s played so far: per @ishaantharoor “divisions between Trump and his counterparts…flared in private”. Predictable fault lines have included: climate change, trade wars, Iran, and the possible readmission of Russia to the group.
WaPo further reported that leaders were “disappointed during a whiplash [2nd] day of mixed signals”. And some European officials said that they are “beginning to fear that nearly any substantive coordinated work with the US might be impossible in the Trump era.”
Trade war: Trump announced that he will raise tariffs on $250b of Chinese exports from 25% to 30% on Oct 1 & tariffs on the remaining $300b from 10% to 15% - though about half of that $300b has been delayed until Dec. 15 to avoid hurting Christmas shoppers.
Further, Trump via Twitter, “hereby ordered” US companies to “immediately start looking for an alternative to China”. @LizaGoitein explained that Trump can’t do this via Tweet. “But unfortunately, he seems to have discovered” an Act that lets him coerce US firms.
She continued: The International Emergency Economic Powers Act, is “one of the President’s most potent legal weapons—with enormous untapped potential for abuse”. It allows him to declare a “national emergency” – the existence of which “rests on the President’s say-so”.
She continued, “once he declares the emergency, POTUS can take sweeping economic action against persons or entities that he designates. The law expressly allows him to block any financial transactions between US persons/entities and designated persons/entities”.
Japan-South Korea spat: in the latest escalation, the two US allies have nixed an intelligence sharing agreement. @MiraRappHooper explained that the pair “have a long history of troubled relations born of colonialism & wartime atrocities…& these tensions resurface periodically”.
She continued: proximate causes this time included: (i) a re-ignition of wartime tensions (ii) trade disputes (iii) a fundamental mis-match between a left-leaning [South Korean] government & right-leaning Japanese one & (iv) obvious American disengagement.
Costs of the spat include weaker defence & less co-ordinated deterrence. It’s “a win for Kim Jong Un, the CCP, & anyone else who wants weaker US alliances”. And, it “was completely foreseeable & totally avoidable”. Fortunately, it may be reversable under a competent US admin.
Three thought-provoking articles:
.@thomaswright08 argued that it was one thing for Trump to float the cockamamie idea of buying Greenland. But was quite another to use leverage & impose costs on Denmark in pursuit of that goal— & make no mistake, cancelling his presidential visit did just that.
Wright continued, this act marks the defection of Trump to the autocrats: “this is the kind of thing the Russians and the Chinese do. It is territorial revisionism—the use of national power to acquire territory against the desire of its sovereign government and its people”.
.@DeanBaker13 argued that the media get the US-China trade deficit narrative wrong. “For some reason the media always accept the Trumpian narrative that the large trade deficits the US runs with China…were the result of [China] outsmarting our negotiators”.
But this “is not a story of China tricking our stupid negotiators,it is a story of smart negotiators who served the people they worked for well”. Large US corporations which benefited from offshoring jobs to China & increased profits had “little reason to be unhappy”.
He continued: “it would be great if trade reporters could get a bit more serious and give some thought to winners and losers from trade policy and not pretend that everyone in the US is in the same boat”. Instead, we just get this “jingoistic rally around the flag against China”.
.@Nouriel argued that there are three negative supply shocks that could trigger a recession by 2020: (i) the US-China trade & currency war (ii) the US-China tech cold war; and (iii) an oil shock from conflict with Iran.
He continued: “all three of these potential shocks would have a stagflationary effect, increasing the price of imported consumer goods, intermediate inputs, technological components and energy, while reducing output by disrupting global supply chains”.
Three events to watch in the near-future:
Italy: Per Stratfor, after the collapse of the Five Star Movement (M5S) / League coalition, and the resignation of PM Conte, there are three options going forward: (i) M5S form a new coalition with the Democratic Party – as both have an incentive to avoid an election.
(ii) An early general election: here, the League would likely do well, then reach out to like minded parties and form a right-wing coalition; & (iii) reconciliation between M5S and the League: this is the least likely – due to deep animosity and mistrust.
Trump goes to Poland: @melhoop10 and @DaliborRohac explained that the visit takes place at a “fraught moment”: “Poland is headed into a polarizing parliamentary election. Battles over contentious cultural issues are underway, including LGBTQ rights [&] abortion”.
They continued, “any misstep Trump makes – such as inserting himself into the country’s bitter cultural wars…will turn the partnership between the US and Poland into a partisan issue and do irreparable damage once the government in Warsaw changes”.
Kashmir: @rajeshvenugopal reported that it’s in total shutdown: "valley remains in total paralysis; no shops, no internet, no schools, no phones. Nothing is open...large parts…totally empty…Complete nonsense to suggest life is normal or that Kashmiris accept any of it”.
He continued, there’s also a “saturated military presence. [It’s] the most claustrophobic security force presence [he’s] ever seen in a large urban area. It's absolutely maddeningly oppressive. Soldiers, paramilitaries and police are literally everywhere”.
Soumya Shankar reported “the question is how long Kashmiri anger can be contained”. As long as there are constraints, there will be no protests. It’s like a bottle of soda shaken with the cap tightened. Once the constraints are loosened, there “could be an eruption”.
Thanks as always to everyone who has been liking, retweeting and spreading the word. We are continually humbled by the following we are gathering amongst the world’s leading diplomats, journalists, and thinkers.

Have a great week!

The Ambassador’s Brief Editors

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
 

Keep Current with The Ambassador's Brief

The Ambassador's Brief Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @ambassadorbrief

Nov 18, 2019
Weekly Geopolitical Brief

Three stories:

Impeachment Hearings: Bill Burns argued that in their testimonies, “Bill Taylor, George Kent, & Masha Yovanovitch demonstrated professionalism, integrity, & plainspoken courage”. They “upheld their oaths to the Constitution”
He continued, they’ve reminded us that the real threat to US democracy is not an imagined deep state: it’s a “weak state” of hollowed-out institutions – no longer able to effectively compete internationally, or uphold the fragile guardrails of US democracy.
And Trump has is making headway on that hollowing out: it’s not just his “bureaucratic arson, such as the systematic sidelining of career officers or historic proposed budget cuts”. It’s “the cronyism & corruption” that we now “see on full & gory display in the Ukraine scandal”.
Read 29 tweets
Nov 11, 2019
Weekly Geopolitical Brief

Three stories:

30 years since the fall of the Berlin Wall: Andrew Bacevich argued “Three decades into this era of ostensible American primacy, we are in a position to assess what it has yielded. The results, to put it mildly, have been disappointing”.
“The era’s defining characteristics [have been] the emergence of China as a great power, Europe’s long fade into geopolitical irrelevance, much of the greater Middle East succumbing to violence and instability, and a too little, too late response to climate change”.
This record shows that the “American model of global leadership has tended to be either irrelevant or counterproductive”. So, “the anniversary of the fall of the Berlin wall offers an occasion not for celebration but for somber and long overdue reflection”.
Read 29 tweets
Nov 4, 2019
Weekly Geopolitical Brief

Three stories:

Phase one trade deal: @BennSteil & @bdellarocca explained China has offered to buy $20b of US agricultural goods in return for Trump killing both his planned tariff hikes and a round of new tariffs on Chinese imports.
But it’s not an attractive offer. “The right way to evaluate China’s offer is to ask how much US farmers would have exported to China in 2020 had Trump never started his trade war”. The answer: $27b – “China would have bought over $7b more than what it is now offering”.
.@BaldingsWorld argued that the one thing you need to understand about this dispute is: “China is not going to change anything for you. Whether you ask nicely or rudely. Whether it is bilateral or multilateral. GOP or Democrat. It. Does. Not. Matter…Proceed accordingly”
Read 29 tweets
Oct 28, 2019
Weekly Geopolitical Brief

Three stories:

Baghdadi raid: @attackerman argued that ISIS leader Baghdadi is dead, but “the war on Terror will create another…There will be another Baghdadi, and another ISIS, as long as the Forever War keeps going”.
He continued, “the expansive war the U.S. launched does not fight against a static enemy. It generates enemies... Its history shows it yielding further generations of jihadists as long as there are American forces hunting, surveilling, and killing Muslims worldwide”.
And, “as proficient as U.S. special operators have become at manhunting these past 18 years, and as central as manhunting has been during that time, there is no campaign plan, not even a theory, by which the killings of jihadist leaders knit up into a lasting victory”.
Read 28 tweets
Oct 21, 2019
Weekly Geopolitical Brief

Three stories:

Syria: @stephenWalt argued let’s not lose sight of the big picture: US Syria policy has been a "failure for years”. It was “rife with contradictions & unlikely to produce a significantly better outcome no matter how long the US stayed”.
He continued: “As depressing as it is…acknowledging Assad’s victory & accepting his authority in Syria is the least bad option at this point”. The reality is (i)Assad has won (ii) Assad will purge ISIS & (iii) Syria is hardly a major strategic prize; the US has other priorities
As for the Kurds, “Once the Islamic State was under control…the U.S.-[Kurdish] partnership was on borrowed time” as: (i) the partnership was always tactical & conditional, not open ended & absolute & (ii) the Kurds have long been a red line for Turkey.
Read 28 tweets
Oct 14, 2019
Weekly Geopolitical Brief

Three stories:

A trade truce, dressed up as a deal? Trump asserted that the US & China have reached a phase one trade deal. The partial deal purportedly includes China buying more US agricultural goods. But, it hasn’t even been written down.
Stratfor argued that “the partial deal doesn't go beyond the low-hanging fruit previously on the negotiating table. With neither side seemingly willing to make any of the hard, structural concessions…this week's deal is likely fragile at best”.
They continued, “judging by the Trump administration's continued search for leverage — …including threats of divestment and capital controls— a future uptick in hostilities between the United States and China is not only possible but perhaps also inevitable”.
Read 26 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!


This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Don't want to be a Premium member but still want to support us?

Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal

Or Donate anonymously using crypto!

Ethereum

0xfe58350B80634f60Fa6Dc149a72b4DFbc17D341E copy

Bitcoin

3ATGMxNzCUFzxpMCHL5sWSt4DVtS8UqXpi copy

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us!

:(