This past weekend commemorated the 80th anniversary of the Molotov-Ribbentrop pact between Nazi Germany and Stalinist Russia.
Why did it matter?
[THREAD]
The pact had two parts:
1) a non-aggression provision. As we now know, that didn't last very long (e.g. Operation Barbarossa in 1941).
2) More critically, it was an offensive pact. The offensive provisions were in a secret protocol.
Those provisions sought to divide up Eastern Europe between the two powers.
Following the signing of this pact, the way was clear for the invasion of Poland on September 1, 1939
But here's the thing...it didn't have to be this way.
Following Hitler's invasion and dismemberment of Czechoslovakia earlier in 1939, the other European powers knew that Hitler couldn't be trusted
Throughout the summer of 1939, the British, French, and Soviets planned negotiations to form a pact to deter Hitler.
The August negotiations in Moscow were opened by Soviet Defense Minister Kliment Voroshilov
He opened the meeting with a blunt statement of their objective:
"Our aim is clear-cut: to defend the peace-loving countries headed by Britain, France, and the Soviet Union against the aggressive bloc in Europe. That, I think, is the aim...
"...and we must now discuss the means of achieving it...The aggressive European bloc, if it attacks one of the countries, must be smashed at all costs, and for this we must have an appropriate military plan."
So why didn't the sides reach an agreement on a plan to deter Hitler?
The major dispute erupted over the ideal approach for Russia: offensive or defensive? In other words, should Russia take the fight to Germany or sit back and wait?
Complicating the matter was the lack of common border
between the Soviet Union and Germany: Poland and Romania separated the two powers.
Russia wanted Britain and France to pressure their ally, Poland, to grant Russia "pass-through rights"
Needless to say, Poland wasn't too keen on that idea. They had been partitioned by Russia before & had fought a war with Russia in 1920 (below is a Polish propaganda poster).
When coupled with perceived "dithering" by the British and French (mostly because they were "slow walking" making a tough decision), the Soviet's lost patience.
Indeed, Voroshilov chastised the British and French for wasting his time:
The negotiations ended without an agreement on August 21. The Molotov-Ribbentrop pact was signed on August 23.
Since that time, historians have debated the sequence of events. Namely, were the Soviets sincere when negotiating with the British and French?
For a sense of the debate, see this @HDiplo review (and the comments by Geoffrey Roberts)
Regardless of who was at fault, the failure of these negotiations gave Hitler a "clear path" to pursue his objectives in Europe. Quite frankly, he now viewed all sides as feckless.
And the broader humanitarian consequences of the pact (and even before the pact) were profound, as @TimothyDSnyder illustrated so vividly in his "Bloodlands"
The profound consequences of French, British, and Soviets failing to reach agreement is why this case motivated the writing of my forthcoming @CornellPress book, "Arguing About Alliances"
Which of these two men is most responsible for World War II?
Short answer: not Churchill
Long answer: [THREAD]
To be clear, in this thread I am dealing with the onset of the war in Europe. The War in Asia was just as important and obviously connected to Europe. But that is for another thread. For now, I do highly recommend Paine's book "The Wars for Asia"
Solving the "Europe Problem" has vexed US foreign policy since the beginning.
[THREAD]
As I wrote last week, a key trait of US "grand strategy" since the founding of the Republic was "Go West" either by expanding US territory west or seeking to maintain trade with China.
Since the founding of the republic, US foreign policy has been about one thing:
Go west (and don't let Europe get in the way).
[THREAD]
I'll write more about "don't let Europe get in the way" in another 🧵. This one will focus on the "Go west" part (which will also touch on the Europe part).
One could go so far as to argue that the Republic itself was founded because of a desire to go west. Specifically, the colonials were forbidden to go west of the 1763 Proclamation line.
When you hear "Liberal International Order", just think "the G-7, for better and for worse"
[THREAD]
While some scholars and policy makers like to speak of the "Liberal International Order" as the collection of post-World War II international institutions.... cambridge.org/core/journals/…
...the phrase itself is much more recent in origins, largely a product of the mid-1990s.
As I wrote in my latest for @WPReview, shifting patterns in population growth will inevitably influence international politics. worldpoliticsreview.com/global-demogra…
This isn't a new idea. It's one found in classic works on change in world politics.