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Charles Gaba ✡️ Profile picture
@charles_gaba
Aug 26, 2019 • 3 tweets • 1 min read • Read on X
Un fucking believable. “The candidate who WASN’T a Hitler-wannabe deserved no votes from any state she didn’t happen to visit.”

When the choice is Hitler vs. NotHitler, YOU FUCKING VOTE FOR NOTHITLER, PERIOD.
Would it have been WISE for her to visit Wisconsin a couple of times? Sure. Would it have guaranteed her winning the state? No...after all, she outperformed Russ Feingold, for God's sake. And she still would've narrowly lost MI & PA, so I've never understood this argument.
But this "if the candidate doesn't knock on my door in person, I'm not voting for them" stuff is bullshit. Christ, even in Wyoming, where she lost 4:1, 56,000 people still voted for her, and I guarantee they weren't expecting her to hold a rally in Cheyenne.

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More from @charles_gaba

Charles Gaba ✡️ Profile picture
Nov 3
As the guy who obsessed over precisely this data for nearly 3 years, let me address this:

My best estimate is that around 150,000 more Trump 2020 voters than Biden 2020 voters died between Nov. 2020 & Nov. 2022.

That's a lot of people. HOWEVER... 1/

acasignups.net/22/09/17/eleph…
...the vast majority of this discrepancy happened in districts/counties which were heavily red to begin with, which is why the MAGA COVID Death Cult factor only ended up making a decisive difference in exactly one statewide race: Arizona Attorney General:
acasignups.net/22/12/29/updat…
At the House district level it didn't make a decisive difference in any races at all. To understand why, let's look at two extreme examples...

acasignups.net/22/12/13/updat…
Read 10 tweets
Charles Gaba ✡️ Profile picture
Oct 31
People have started asking why I'm still pushing fundraising for Dems just 5 days before Election Day. All the ad time has been purchased & the lit pieces printed & mailed out already, right?

There's several reasons: 1/
1. For state legislative races in particular, a last-minute cash infusion of even $50 can mean an extra few pizzas for tired & hungry canvassers or an extra burner phone for phone banking.

Blue24.org/state-leg
2. After the polls close, there's going to no doubt be some races which require recounts...which may or may not have to be paid for by the campaign requesting it, depending on the state and the margin. That's gonna cost money.

Blue24.org/endgame
Read 4 tweets
Charles Gaba ✡️ Profile picture
Oct 31
🧵THE DEAD POOL: Since @MikeJohnson and @JDVance are promising to Concentrate folks w/pre-existing conditions into separate Camps, let's talk about that. 1/
acasignups.net/24/10/04/dead-…
Let's go back to the pre-ACA healthcare landscape. This is what it looked like in 2012...*before* the ACA's major provisions went into effect.

Half the US had employer coverage. Another third had Medicare or Medicaid. ~11M had "individual" insurance; ~48M had nothing at all. 2/ Image
The ACA had 2 main goals:

1. Reduce the number of uninsured Americans as much as possible by making coverage more affordable & accessible;

2. Provide protections from insurance industry abuses, *especially* for the individual market where the abuses were the most blatant. 3/
Read 40 tweets
Charles Gaba ✡️ Profile picture
Oct 6
(sigh) OK, here we go again: Trump's Butler, PA rally crowd size.

Here's the best aerial view shot I've seen of the crowd at its peak. (the arrow shows the stage). 1/ Image
A standard dry U.S. trailer van is around 53' long. 2/
schneiderjobs.com/blog/semi-truc…
As it happens, the aerial shot shows several presumably standard trailer vans lined up neatly in a row just outside the perimeter in the lower right.

By copying & pasting one of them, it looks like the venue runs around 7 trailer vans x 4 trailer vans. 3/ Image
Read 9 tweets
Charles Gaba ✡️ Profile picture
Oct 3
🧵📣 THE DEAD POOL: Since @JDVance wants to Concentrate folks w/pre-existing conditions into separate Camps, let's talk about it. 1/

acasignups.net/24/10/02/dead-…
Let's go back to the pre-ACA healthcare landscape. This is what it looked like in 2012...*before* the ACA's major provisions went into effect.

Half the US had employer coverage. Another third had Medicare or Medicaid. ~11M had "individual" insurance; ~48M had nothing at all. 2/ Image
The ACA had 2 main goals:

1. Reduce the number of uninsured Americans as much as possible by making coverage more affordable & accessible;

2. Provide protections from insurance industry abuses, *especially* for the individual market where the abuses were the most blatant. 3/
Read 67 tweets
Charles Gaba ✡️ Profile picture
Sep 18
OH DEAR GOD.

This LITERALLY DEFEATS THE ENTIRE CONCEPT OF HEALTH INSURANCE: SHARED RISK.
AGAIN: This graph is the single most important explainer of how risk pools work & the dangers of separating people out into risk pools based on their CURRENT health.

5% of the population racks up over 50% of total healthcare spending. Image
If you throw them under the bus, healthcare costs for the other 95% of the population drops in half, except for one small problem even IF you don't care about Grandma or Cousin Fred Who Was Just Diagnosed With Cancer:

You never know when YOU'RE gonna become Cousin Fred.
Read 14 tweets

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