Share this page!

Enter URL or ID to Unroll

You can paste full URL like: https://x.com/threadreaderapp/status/1644127596119195649
or just the ID like: 1644127596119195649

How to get URL link on X (Twitter) App

  1. On the Twitter thread, click on or icon on the bottom
  2. Click again on or Share Via icon
  3. Click on Copy Link to Tweet
  4. Paste it above and click "Unroll Thread"!
  5. More info at Twitter Help
Sergey Radchenko Profile picture
@DrRadchenko
Aug 27, 2019 • 9 tweets • 1 min read • Read on X
Spent a few days in the Crimea, not on government invitation, so free to explore. Conclusions:
1) Massive government infrastructural investments. Locals complain of outrageous corruption but note corruption under Ukraine (with little investment);
2) Overwhelming support for Russia. Locals recounted their enthusiastic involvement in the pre-annexation referendum. Russian flags flying everywhere, etc. If another referendum were held today, it is inconceivable that it would result in a vote for Ukraine.
3) Sanctions were felt. Oddly, Russian mobile operators treat Crimea as a foreign country (for roaming purposes). Foreign cards proved useless. Crimea's is a cash economy, and will likely remain so.
4) Many locals secretly hold on to their Ukrainian passports.
- "Why?"
- "Just in case."
5) Ukrainians are selling their vacation homes in Crimea but the slack is being taken up by scores of Russians (from Siberia etc) buying vacation homes.
6) There seems to be considerable seasonal workforce from Ukraine that continues to service Crimea's vacation industry.
7) No happy end to this story. Crimea is not "returning" to democratic Ukraine any time soon, or ever. This should probably be taken as a starting point for a regional settlement.
One could argue that non-recognition keeps this hope alive, as in the case of the Baltics (their annexation by the USSR was never recognised by the West). But the parallel is a weak one, mainly because Crimea is populated by ethnic Russians.
What else to say? Worth visiting, just to get a better grasp on the political realities.

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
　

Keep Current with Sergey Radchenko

Sergey Radchenko Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @DrRadchenko

Sergey Radchenko Profile picture
Jul 11
This here is pretty entertaining (and I have never seen anything like this). Russia's foreign intelligence (SVR) publishes fake "declassified" reports by its rezidenty in Kyiv, Paris, Riga, and Washington who are identified as "Aleks," "Feliks," "Diaz," "Stone," and Nora.
These fake reports promote conspiracy theories like one here that claims that the Americans are secretly hiring Latin American criminals to fight in Ukraine. Image
Why do I say it's quite unprecedented? The Russian intelligence have previously faked documents for public consumption (they do it regularly, it's a trademark). Consider the Tanaka memorandum etc etc. But I don't think they have ever faked their own documents.
Read 5 tweets
Sergey Radchenko Profile picture
Jun 9
I am a little bit late to the discussion of this important article by Matt Pottinger and Mike Gallagher: . Let me weigh in on the core argument, however, because it is all about one of the central themes of my book - detente.foreignaffairs.com/united-states/…
I both agree and disagree with Pottinger and Gallagher in how they draw the parallel between the failure of detente and our own days. First, let me talk a bit about where I disagree with them. This here. Image
We have to understand what it was that Moscow sought to accomplish. I argue in To Run the World that Brezhnev was *genuinely* interested in detente, i.e. it was not meant to be some secret plan to undermine the United States. Brezhnev wanted American recognition as a co-equal.
Read 25 tweets
Sergey Radchenko Profile picture
May 16
A few thoughts on the Putin-Xi presser.
1) Xi described his conversation with Putin as "frank, friendly, and substantive". "Frank" is the usual codeword for disagreements; "friendly" suggests that disagreements were nevertheless secondary to the broader alignment of views. Image
2) "Friendship forever" Image
3) A short bit on Israel/Gaza: immediate action to end the fighting, a two-state solution. Image
Read 8 tweets
Sergey Radchenko Profile picture
May 2
An interesting thread, which comes to different conclusions about the March-April 2022 peace talks than @scharap and I do in our article. There are several problematic aspects to this thread. I'll point out three.
First this. @dszeligowski claims that "it is not ... true that Russia agreed to Ukraine's accession to the EU." He then corrects himself by saying that "it expressed its consent in principle, but subject to conditions that Ukraine rejected."
Sadly @dszeligowski does not provide any evidence for this claim. Our article, on the other hand, was based on the wording of the communique, which we cited, and on the wording of Art. 3 of the draft treaty, which noted that Ukraine's neutrality was "compatible" with Ukraine's possible membership in the EU.
Read 9 tweets
Sergey Radchenko Profile picture
Apr 20
So allow me to respond to this in detail because this is very interesting.

First, the argument that "I know quite a few people in the loop and everyone of them disagrees with the article" is completely unconvincing, and can be easily countered with the following equally unconvincing argument: "I know quite a few people in the loop, many of them directly involved in the negotiations, and everyone of them thinks the article is spot on."

Now that the unconvincing arguments have been presented upfront, let's turn to a more serious discussion.
First, about the article.
Our article with @scharap constructs a very complex set of arguments, so if you agree or disagree with the article, it's useful to explain what aspect of the argument you agree or disagree with.

- That at the negotiators prepared the text of a draft treaty on security guarantees that provided for Ukraine's permanent neutrality, which had a number of issues still unresolved, which we meticulously elaborate in the article?

- That the negotiations continued for weeks after Bucha and Irpin, which unambiguously suggests that Bucha and Irpin did not lead to the breakdown of negotiations, even if the Russian atrocities steeled Zelensky's resolve to continue the fight?

- That nevertheless the negotiations broke down eventually, and that was for the three reasons we elaborate, including the prospects of winning the war (which seemed brighter after the Russians retreated from Kyiv)?

- That the Ukrainians counted on a Western buy-in in the security guarantees process, and that it wasn't forthcoming for reasons that we explain?

- That Boris Johnson did *not* force Ukraine to abandon negotiations, and that the claim that he did is a caricature (the word we use in the article)?

- That the Ukrainians had not consulted with the US on the US buy-in before Istanbul?

- That the draft treaty contained a number of interesting ideas, proposed by the Russians, about changing specific Ukrainian laws on historical memory and language, and that these proposals amounted to a face-saving measure that would cover Putin's insistence on "nenazification"?

- That while we don't know whether Putin and Zelensky negotiated in good faith, it is at least conceivable that the negotiators themselves thought so because an advanced version of the draft and the multiple attached protocols point to a serious negotiation?

So which one of these arguments do the esteemed experts disagree with? All of them? Good. But at least we have the evidence upon which we rest our claims.
Now to the Polish role.
The screenshot presented here by @dszeligowski (evidently posted to highlight that the author of the thread knows his stuff) actually supports our narrative. It is an early version of the draft treaty on security guarantees. In fact, it appears to predate the Istanbul communique, and is dated March 16, 2022 (so that's immediately after the March 14 Zoom meeting between the delegations, the one when @Podolyak_M commented: "The sides are actively expressing their positions, which have already been clarified. Communication continues, albeit with difficulty" ().

So we can see that this document (which is similar in format to the later drafts that we have seen, although this one is in English), was being passed around, including to the Poles (we do say, on the basis of our evidence, that it was being passed around, since Naftali Bennett and Lukashenko have both claimed seeing drafts).

In any case, what would be interesting is to have the entire document, similar to what we had, so that one can compare the similarities and differences to the later versions and see what concessions were made and by whom. If @dszeligowski can prevail on his friends to share the entire document, then this would usefully contribute to the scholarly discussion and help map out the negotiations process with greater detail. As a historian, I would personally welcome this, though I fully understand that it's unlikely because there are issues here around trust between parties (in this case Ukraine and Poland). Eventually we'll find out more!pravda.com.ua/rus/news/2022/…
Read 4 tweets
Sergey Radchenko Profile picture
Apr 17
Hmm okay well let's address this (with apologies to @slantchev, I overlooked the original critique). I now found it: .
This long thread is actually contradictory. Thus, here @slantchev argues that the Ukrainians were negotiating in good faith (I would agree btw). However, later in the same thread, he claims that the Ukrainians were simply trying to deflect the blame for the failure of the talks.
Image
Image
The latter, of course, would be the definition of bad faith. But, as I mentioned, I don't agree with @slantchev, and I do think it's a) - keeping in mind, of course, that the Ukrainians were in a terrible predicament. This may well explain the lack of coordination with the West.
Read 11 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!

This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Don't want to be a Premium member but still want to support us?

Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal

Or Donate anonymously using crypto!

Ethereum

0xfe58350B80634f60Fa6Dc149a72b4DFbc17D341E copy

Bitcoin

3ATGMxNzCUFzxpMCHL5sWSt4DVtS8UqXpi copy

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us!

Send Email!

:(