Sergey Radchenko Profile picture
Aug 27, 2019 9 tweets 1 min read Read on X
Spent a few days in the Crimea, not on government invitation, so free to explore. Conclusions:
1) Massive government infrastructural investments. Locals complain of outrageous corruption but note corruption under Ukraine (with little investment);
2) Overwhelming support for Russia. Locals recounted their enthusiastic involvement in the pre-annexation referendum. Russian flags flying everywhere, etc. If another referendum were held today, it is inconceivable that it would result in a vote for Ukraine.
3) Sanctions were felt. Oddly, Russian mobile operators treat Crimea as a foreign country (for roaming purposes). Foreign cards proved useless. Crimea's is a cash economy, and will likely remain so.
4) Many locals secretly hold on to their Ukrainian passports.
- "Why?"
- "Just in case."
5) Ukrainians are selling their vacation homes in Crimea but the slack is being taken up by scores of Russians (from Siberia etc) buying vacation homes.
6) There seems to be considerable seasonal workforce from Ukraine that continues to service Crimea's vacation industry.
7) No happy end to this story. Crimea is not "returning" to democratic Ukraine any time soon, or ever. This should probably be taken as a starting point for a regional settlement.
One could argue that non-recognition keeps this hope alive, as in the case of the Baltics (their annexation by the USSR was never recognised by the West). But the parallel is a weak one, mainly because Crimea is populated by ethnic Russians.
What else to say? Worth visiting, just to get a better grasp on the political realities.

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More from @DrRadchenko

Oct 19
Well, this here is certainly worth reading this morning: . The biggest takeaway is that Witkoff leaned on Zelensky during the meeting with Trump to surrender Donbas to the Russians (because they speak Russian in Donbas, according to Witkoff).washingtonpost.com/politics/2025/…
I wonder if Trump and Putin already reached an agreement on this point in their phone call on Oct. 16, and Trump promised Putin to arm-twist Zelensky. I would think this is a definite possibility.
Kyiv is in a bind here. If Trump concludes that a Ukrainian withdrawal from Donbas is the only thing that is blocking an ever-lasting piece a la Gaza, he'll lean on Zelensky to do it, and Zelensky will have few options. He'll plead with the Europeans of course.
Read 7 tweets
Oct 16
An interesting choice of a location (though previously discussed). Remarkable optics here. Budapest--with its decidedly "neutral" position in the war--is like the new Helsinki. Zelensky and the Europeans won't be thrilled but @PM_ViktorOrban stands tall and proud.
For Putin, a trip to Budapest is a finger in the EU's eye. Here he is, a criminal wanted by the ICC (Hungary btw is still a member of the ICC despite voting to withdraw), kicking Europe's door open with his boot. It'll be something else.
A bad idea? It depends. As we have seen, the U.S. has in fact provided substantial assistance to Ukraine over the last few months, and the Tomahawks and more sanctions are definitely an implied threat. Close coordination with Zelensky ahead of the meeting will help Kyiv.
Read 6 tweets
Sep 24
My view on this is that it does not represent a new departure for Trump or the United States. Trump is doing here what he has already threatened to do many times: wash his hands of the whole Ukraine situation and let the Europeans sort it out.
As long as the Europeans are willing to purchase US weapons for Ukraine, he is willing to sell them. That's good. But the financial burden will fall on Europe, and Ukraine for its part will have to come up with the necessary manpower.
But there is no backstop. There is no promise of direct US support, just "good luck to all."
Read 5 tweets
Aug 18
So here's the bizarre thing. Steve Witkoff, Marco Rubio et al are now arguing that Russia's acceptance of Art. 5-style guarantees for Ukraine is some kind of an incredible breakthrough that amounts, per Rubio, to Russia's major concession.
However, if you follow this story, as, for instance, Sam Charap and I have, over the years, you'll see that the idea of something *like* Art. 5 was being negotiated at Istanbul in 2002, and that the key obstacle was *not* Russia but U.S. unwillingness to offer such guarantees.
In other words, what today Trump is presenting as Russia's major concession is actually a major concession by the United States, because up to now the U.S. was unwilling to offer viable security guarantees to Ukraine. This below is from our recent piece for @ForeignAffairs. Image
Read 4 tweets
Jun 2
A few reflections on where we are after another meeting in Istanbul. Since we now have both the Ukrainian and the Russian documents in full, I will do a full analysis on my Substack () tomorrow morning, so subscribe, but for now, here are some thoughts.profradchenko.substack.com
The fact that we have both documents already means that neither side is currently prepared to seriously negotiate. Recall we didn't have this at Istanbul 1.0: those were secret talks, and it was only much later that we obtained the leaked documents.
Now the positions are being leaked in real time, which means that they are not actual positions: just propaganda. Even so, is there any room at all for compromise?
Read 13 tweets
May 6
On Putin's obsession with history, an interesting quote. He says here: "Clearing out of the historical memory dissolves our very selves, we lose our identity... A nation that has no past, has no future. This attempt to dissolve us in an amorphous state is not accidental." Image
In other words, Putin understands history-writing as a nation-building exercise. His history is by necessity propagandistic. History that is not, as he describes it, "patriotic" is automatically suspect as a probable foreign imposition.
What he is describing here is not history in any sense that a historian would recognize and describe it. Putin's "history" is basically propaganda employed by the state for the purposes of the state. Still, such references offer a window into Putin's thinking.
Read 4 tweets

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