Sergey Radchenko Profile picture
Aug 27, 2019 9 tweets 1 min read Read on X
Spent a few days in the Crimea, not on government invitation, so free to explore. Conclusions:
1) Massive government infrastructural investments. Locals complain of outrageous corruption but note corruption under Ukraine (with little investment);
2) Overwhelming support for Russia. Locals recounted their enthusiastic involvement in the pre-annexation referendum. Russian flags flying everywhere, etc. If another referendum were held today, it is inconceivable that it would result in a vote for Ukraine.
3) Sanctions were felt. Oddly, Russian mobile operators treat Crimea as a foreign country (for roaming purposes). Foreign cards proved useless. Crimea's is a cash economy, and will likely remain so.
4) Many locals secretly hold on to their Ukrainian passports.
- "Why?"
- "Just in case."
5) Ukrainians are selling their vacation homes in Crimea but the slack is being taken up by scores of Russians (from Siberia etc) buying vacation homes.
6) There seems to be considerable seasonal workforce from Ukraine that continues to service Crimea's vacation industry.
7) No happy end to this story. Crimea is not "returning" to democratic Ukraine any time soon, or ever. This should probably be taken as a starting point for a regional settlement.
One could argue that non-recognition keeps this hope alive, as in the case of the Baltics (their annexation by the USSR was never recognised by the West). But the parallel is a weak one, mainly because Crimea is populated by ethnic Russians.
What else to say? Worth visiting, just to get a better grasp on the political realities.

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More from @DrRadchenko

Apr 23
. This is not dissimilar from Istanbul, and looks pretty good for Putin (if Trump can arm-twist Zelensky into signing off on this, which he may well be able to). Several questions:axios.com/2025/04/22/tru…
Let's distinguish here between U.S. recognition of Crimea as Russian (could be done unilaterally in a declaration), and Ukraine's recognition of Crimea as Russian. The latter would require an "all-Ukrainian referendum" (the outcome cannot be guaranteed). Image
My guess is that "U.S. recognition" is not an accident: the deal would *not* include Ukraine's recognition of Crimea. The other Russia-occupied regions are recognized as "de facto" under Russian control within the limits of current control (no surrender of territory by Ukraine).
Read 15 tweets
Apr 11
A fascinating interview. Here’s the problem. In 1945 the US had skin in the game. It could get things done because it was willing to risk a war with the USSR to protect its position in Germany. It showed that much in the Berlin airlift. thetimes.com/us/american-po…
What we have today is an American government that is “negotiating” like hell over Ukraine, but without pledging itself to the outcome, letting the Europeans sort things out later. This just doesn’t hang together. You are either in or you are out.
Either you commit to defending Ukraine indefinitely in a repeat of Cold War Germany or you shut up and go away. I think this is the trade-off. You can’t have it both ways.
Read 5 tweets
Mar 26
There has been a lot of confusion about what has or has not been agreed in Riyadh. Let me try to summarize where we are now that we have statements from all sides and preliminary reactions. In a nutshell, I don't think a Black Sea truce has been agreed yet.
This is despite statements by the White House (here: whitehouse.gov/briefings-stat… and here: whitehouse.gov/briefings-stat…) that claim that an agreement has been reached with Russia and Ukraine "to ensure safe navigation, eliminate the use of force, and prevent the use of commercial vessels for military purposes in the Black Sea."
The reason why I say no agreement on a truce has been reached is that Russia issued a statement of its own, claiming that it would only go into effect after sanctions on Rosselkhozbank "and other financial organizations" had been removed, and other sanctions lifted. Image
Read 13 tweets
Mar 23
So since everyone (myself included) have been trashing Witkoff, let me offer an alternative view of his interview with @TuckerCarlson, which I think should be watched in full, to give Witkoff the benefit of the doubt. I think he deserves it tbf.
I found several striking elements in the interview. And no, I won't talk about his knowledge (or lack thereof) of the "five regions." The fact of the matter is: even if Witkoff new Eastern Ukraine like the back of his hand and could name every little village...
... even if he studied Ukrainian history and defended his PhD on the subject of Khrushchev's handling of Crimea --none of this would actually change the underlying reality of Ukraine being peripheral to core US interests, and not in this sense being "existential" for the US. So.
Read 12 tweets
Mar 20
Well, @MartinDiCaro since you asked, Alan Kuperman's oped on the origins of the war in Ukraine is not particularly convincing. It's one-sided in its presentation of facts, and omits important information. thehill.com/opinion/519802…
First, Kuperman argues that far-right militants were responsible for violence in Kyiv in February 2014. He draws heavily on Ivan Katchanovski who published several studies to this effect.
Kuperman acknowledges that Yanukovych's ouster "does not justify Russia's invasion," and yet claims that it "provoked" Russian invasion. To translate, Yanukovych's ouster... provoked an unjustified Russian invasion. If it sounds ridiculous, that's because it is. Image
Read 15 tweets
Mar 18
As we are waiting for the outcome of the second Trump-Putin call, let's take a closer look at Putin's comments to Russian businessmen earlier today. Some very interesting points, which I think suggest what Putin thinks he can and cannot accomplish. Full transcript: .kremlin.ru/events/preside…
One thing I found interesting is that Putin did *not* make the recent distinction between "our partners" the Americans and the difficult Europeans. He did not take the opportunity to thank @realDonaldTrump profusely for his commitment to peace (as in the presser with Lukashenka).
Instead, he seemed to have returned to some of his previous rhetoric about the collective West... "the so called Western elites." Image
Read 6 tweets

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