1.) Short thread on the unseen costs of evading resource costs of money; many are the educated economists that in their naive attempts to design and implement clever schemes to evade resource costs of money, find themselves unwitting creators of much worse monsters.
2.) John Law saw the high costs of gold- and silver mining as a curse for that money. And at a glance, the argument seem to make sense. Is it not true that annual precious metal mining costs must be deducted from the general economic growth in a world under such standards?
3.) Friedman shared Law's view of the wasteful nature of such money, and contrasted it with the negligible cost of producing paper money. Similar arguments are now again echoing strong in countless newspapers, and among many PoS-altcoin camps. 'Bitcoin is boiling the oceans'.
4.) Here is what they all miss: even though a low resource cost leads to a smaller deduction from economic growth (meaning higher surpluses, all else equal), the economic growth itself is subject to a new type of risk. This risk may hide in the shadows, for years or decades.
5.) It is called 'easy money'. Law and Friedman said it; the new, modern money is easy to produce and thus cheap. From history we know that this property sporadically will manifest itself in money production that destroys wealth, meaning the efficiency improvements are offset.
6.) But the clever economists never think so far ahead. They see the short term cost cuts, not the long run, low probability, massive cost increases. Bitcoin's PoW is not wasteful; it secures the long term mitigation of much higher costs stemming from easy money production.
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1.) One of the most overlooked aspects in economics, it seems to me, is the role of capital in the economy. Most think that capital is just another word for money. It is not; capital is simply goods of higher order, meaning production goods.
2.) A lemon is capital to the bakery making lemon pies, or to the kid who sells lemonade. A lemon is not capital if it is grown or bought for direct consumption. The definition of capital is strict, but what goods are capital at any given time varies constantly.
3.) My favorite example of capital is a tower crane. No one on Earth commissions one to gaze at it, or climb it. Tower cranes are goods of higher order, made for one purpose: to produce other goods (buildings etc). It is the epitome of capital and the antithesis of stagnation.
1. The Great Misery (also known by some as The Great Reset) will have at least three economic aggregate components. These are not the economic aggregates the central planers fetishize about and tinker with to maximize on paper.
2. The first aggregate is the amount of man hours wasted on unprofitable green projects financed with unnaturally cheap credit. These investments will like parasites siphon workers and capital from sound projects that would have been financed by the free market.
3. The second aggregate is the amount of man hours spent in apathy and idleness when the artificial Austrian boom-bust cycle runs its course and we enter a depression despite all attempts toward full employment.
1.) The fourth chapter of 'Money Dethroned - A Journey through Ashes', deals with the British Restriction of 1797 - a much more interesting episode than its boring name would have you think. The Napoleonic Wars prompted the suspension of free conversion of paper money into gold.
2.) It was promised, of course, to be of temporary character, with an initial time frame of a month and a half. It lasted a full generation. The episode was investigated by William Graham Sumner in late 19th c, simply due to American inflationists praising it as a success story.
3.) Looking at accounts from contemporary British lords, that appears far from the truth. The suspension led to paper declining up to 20% against gold - something deemed near unimaginable since the paper was of the Honorable Bank of England. Contracts were thrown into disorder.
1.) Have you heard of gold backwardation? It seems a fairly under researched subject, to put it mildly, despite it being relevant in today's financial markets. It is also relevant for #Bitcoin . I will try to break it down in this thread.
2.) Futures contracts can be in contango or backwardation. Contango is pretty normal for commodities in need of expensive storage, and means that for example the spot price is lower than the futures price. Backwardation on the other hand means the spot is higher than the futures.
3.) An example of perfectly normal backwardation is grain futures, where just before a large harvest, the spot price is higher that of a future delivery. It simply means there is rather high demand and low supply in the near term. Ok, so what about gold backwardation?
1.) The third chapter of 'Money Dethroned - A Journey through Ashes', details the rise and fall of the Assignat paper currency in Revolutionary France. Dickson White's sources prove that two or three generations were enough to forget the threat of hyperinflation.
2.) Burdened by debt, plans were drafted by the revolutionaries to confiscate Church property and issue currency "backed" by income from this land. Hard money conservatives published pamphlets warning of the upcoming monetary degeneracy long before it descended on France.
3.) One was Nicolas Bergasse: 'I saw them, these perverted and detestable men that ignorance and intrigue have elected in the provinces. I have heard these frenzied orators, I have seen all the evils that their stinking voices will spread on my Homeland.'
1.) The second chapter in 'Money Dethroned - A Journey through Ashes' details the monetary system introduced by John Law to France. I've tweeted about it before, since it's highly relevant both when it comes to our failing fiat currencies and to #Bitcoin . It's about tinkerlust.
2.) France had been through harsh wars, and so had amassed large debts and deficits. Under such conditions, a monetary system is ripe for capture and tinkering by economically illiterate vultures, as seen in the US with Kelton and her MMT disciples. John Law was such a vulture.
3.) France's millenia old silver coinage system was in practice abolished and replaced with silver backed paper. The backing initially stood at 25% silver, but deteriorated later. The other 75% consisted of failing government bonds, booked at nominal value.