#BTC update - similar to previous cycles, #Bitcoin closed below the logarithmic regression trendline this week reaching towards the lower band. In addition, long-term monthly returns remain in negative territory. 1/
From a historical perspective, #BTC should find intermediate support at these levels. The strength of the upcoming bounce will provide more insight. From a weekly POV, the lower confidence band is steadily rising. Note that so far price has never closed below these bands. 2/
Admittedly, #BTC hit 4800 almost two months faster than previously forecasted and hit the bottom of the current proportional cycle in a hurry. Unfortunately, on a relative basis, on chain transaction volume is weaker than typically witnessed during previous trend changes.
2/ @CathieDWood has a saying that you buy over time until you feel like you want to puke.
Then, when feeling like puking, you buy all you can.
Despite yesterday crushing $6K, it doesn't feel like #bitcoin has gotten most hodlers to the puking stage yet.
3/ While people who trade for a living will have granular price targets for $BTC in the interim, as a long-term venture investor the $3K mark (200 week MA) is where I'd expect to start feeling like puking.
0/ Alright $crypto, let me post a theory on why $BTC cannot disappear to zero. Or should I say, it is in nobody's interest. To be fair, I wouldn't be surprised if it actually happens but that is another story.
1/ There is a ton of money to be made by companies, going from wallets, to projects (you know, your favorite ICOs), to exchanges and trading, to large funds, to derived products/merchandise, etc., numerous ways to make huge money off crypto. This comes with a catch though.
2/ Let's also not forget that crypto has created a large amount of jobs, has reshuffled some universities' directions, has had a impact on the world that cannot be undone. I.e. you feel the sense of responsibility yet?
1.1/ Few thoughts on on-chain governance:
Ability to update state via on-chain governance bypassing the state-transition function is super dangerous and invalidates the core idea behind smart contracts.
Yet it is necessary since things like TheDAO will be happening.
The reasonable solution is to have a flag in smart contracts indicating whether their state can be tampered with via on-chain governance.
This is not my idea, @timothanke suggested it for DFinity couple years back (medium.com/dfinity/the-df…, search for "Omnipotence")
1.3/ @dominic_w argues that it doesn't solve the problem since the client code can be changed through on-chain governance to have a hardcoded state transition anyway (like, again, TheDAO).
I disagree with @dominic_w, the increased complexity will make it significantly more rare.
1/ Below is a Q3 2018 update on the global monetary base, or base money. This is certainly not the M1 money supply. Not M2. Not M3. The distinction is important. What is base money? Is it #gold? Is it government fiat? #Bitcoin?? Have some charts to share. This is installment #2…
2/ To begin, it's important to understand the universal accounting identity: Assets = Debt + Equity. Today, it's true that all fiat money is debt-based. But before exploring fiat money, let's look at asset-based money.
3/ Traditionally, commodity money has been asset-based, most notably gold. Gold is a true asset of the holder. If you own gold free and clear, it is your asset, and no one else's debt, no one else's liability.
Another super dishonest study. Using the metric “energy to mine one dollar’s worth” is very dishonest because it depends on the current market price of the asset. They conveniently used 2018 data for Bitcoin, but 2017 for precious metals to fit their predetermined FUD narrative.
If you look back at December, Bitcoin’s difficulty was actually about 1/4 of what it is now according to blockchain.com/charts/difficu…. Also the price was 3x as much. Since the block reward has not changed we can calculate the estimated energy usage last year to mine one dollar’s worth
19 MJ (current energy to mine $1 from article in 2018) / 4 (lower difficulty) = 4.75 MJ / 3 (higher price per Bitcoin) = 1.58 MJ of energy to mine one dollar’s worth in December 2017. Which happens to be significantly lower than Platinum (6 MJ), Gold (5 MJ), and Copper (4 MJ).
I’ve just written this. I’m passionate about Twitter - always have been. I love how it is tackling fake accounts and hoping to reduce the amount of extremism online. But these adverts should be a priority.
Each of the accounts used in the scams are @verified and, last time this happened, I copied in @TwitterSupport so they knew it was happening. It looks like it takes about 30 mins-1 hour to take down these scams but that is long and the damage to innocent accounts lasts longer.
1/ Let's take a trip down #Crypto memory lane together !🗓️
The year is 2014. In the middle of the bear market, #Bitcoin enthusiasts are still optimist about the potential of their cryptocurrency and a book "Bitcoin for the Befuddled" is published to explain it to novices.
2/ One specific extract from this book was then published as a blog post and stood out in my memory: “A Typical Day in a Blockchain-Enabled World Circa 2030”. ⛓️
1/ So, as mentioned by Joseph Young yesterday, the South Korean finance minister gave crypto exchanges the okay to allow crypto exchanges to open up accounts with them so long as they ensure those exchanges have a KYC/AML process:
3/ Many see this as a big deal because there was a banking prohibition on allowing crypto exchanges to host crypto accounts in South Korea in the beginning of this year that effectively cut off fiat on ramps in the nation:
1/ 10 years ago today (Fri 6:10pm 2008-10-31 UTC) Satoshi Nakamoto announced the creation of #Bitcoin to the cryptography mailing list. Satoshi's creation is the most important innovation to money (itself the most important good in any society) in a thousand years.
A thread 👇
2/ When the Bitcoin network launched in 2009, very few people understood its significance. Today, ten years later, Bitcoin's market capitalization stands at over 100 billion dollars.
The great Hal Finney RIP, the first person to receive bitcoins from Satoshi, grokked its import:
3/ Never in the history of the world had it been possible to transfer value between distant peoples without relying on a trusted intermediary, such as a bank or government.
Nakamoto’s invention allowed this for the first time ever.
Not to be a negative nelly 😂 but I feel like we're on the edge the next big global recession. I can't ignore the matching mahosive bear div on the big 5 global markets. Which is interesting since we haven't had one like that since 2008.
From the serpent's mouth, we get #RedOctober. Q knew. This crash is designed my the Cabal. But from the ashes there will be no Phoenix or SDR. This crash, decades in the making, will be used by the Alliance to restore freedom. First comes some Pain. #gold nzherald.co.nz/business/news/…
1/ @rogerkver has agreed to debate me on #Bitcoin vs BCash and the importance of merchant adoption. To avoid the fiasco of prior debates, I'll do the debate only if we have an impartial moderator.
I think Roger would agree @laurashin is impartial. Laura, would you moderate?
2/ Several people have warned me not to debate Roger because of his debate shenanigans (mic snatching, bringing hecklers, constantly interrupting opponents), however I'm a strong believer that good ideas always triumph - Magna est veritas et prævalet.
3/ And while I think Roger is beyond redemption from his BCash ways, there are many others who are trying to understand what Bitcoin is, and what path it should take in the future. It is those people I hope to reach.
2/ I'm not sure how many are familiar with TradingView, but if you do use the fib wedge chart drawing tool, then you must pick a 'middle point' for your wedge. For me, this was obviously at the all-time high (the center).
3/ Once you do that, you must extend the wedge out to the left to the date that you believe the price run started at. In this instance, I picked September 2015 because the price never looked back ever since.
Check out my article analyzing #bitcoin powerful price and time dynamics via logarithmic regression analysis. See how $BTCUSD growth curve is similar to Facebook’s adoption S-curve, the proportionality of bear/bull cycles, plus future price forecasts. medium.com/@Awe_andWonder…