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Luis Garicano 🇪🇺🇺🇦 Profile picture
@lugaricano
Aug 27, 2019 • 11 tweets • 3 min read • Read on X
Muchos "libertarios" en mi TL diciendo idioteces sobre impuestos y sobre Irlanda. Vamos a aclarar algunas cosas básicas
1. Los impuestos no son un robo. La riqueza que tienen los "libertarios" depende de la existencia de un sistema que reconoce y defiende la propiedad y la libertad: policía, jueces, ejército. Sin ellos, somos bandas de monos robando y siendo robados
2. El valor de tu casa no lo debe a tu increíble trabajo y a tu inteligencia. Lo debe al ayuntamiento que ha construido una calle para llegar y la mantiene limpia y segura, a que otros ciudadanos han decidido vivir allí porque el país prospera.
3. Nada es gratis. Las cosas que necesitan nuestros países para prosperar, las calles seguras, el aire limpio, no se pueden generar por el mercado. Sin bienes públicos en sentido estricto, ni se puede excluir a nadie de su uso, ni se agotan cuando otros los usan.
4. Luego los impuestos son necesarios. El nivel, por supuesto, es debatible. Es notorio que a mí me parece que hay mucho desperdicio en las administraciones y que, en particular, sobra un nivel (diputaciones). Pero hacen falta. Y las leyes al respecto deben cumplirse
5. Si estamos de acuerdo en que son necesarios, debemos estar de acuerdo en que no podemos permitir que haya países que se dedican a desviar la recaudación fiscal de otros países hacia ellos para permitir que haya personas o empresas que evadan sus obligaciones
6. Por ejemplo: en Irlanda se paga si se tiene a los administradores de una empresa. En EEUU de paga si hay residencia fiscal. Moraleja: basemos la empresa en Irlanda,dejemos a los ejecutivos en EEUU, y no pagamos en ningún sitio
7. Escribo sobre este tipo de comportamientos en "El dilema de España", con ejemplos concretos y referencias. Ayer puse nuevos datos del economista que mejor conoce el tema que apuntan en la misma dirección
8. Los eslóganes chorras y mal informados, con apoyo de economistas que deberían saber de lo que hablan contribuyen poco al debate. No, Irlanda no tiene un enorme GDP. Irlanda usa el GNI porque su GDP es un sinsentido precisamente por esta razón en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Modified_…
9. Y no, no es "de Podemos" el pedir que personas y empresas cumplan sus obligaciones sin que haya países que les ayuden a evitarlo. Lo liberal es en el imperio de la ley "no taxation without representation", no "no taxation". Menores impuestos, pero no qué la gente haga trampas
Explicación de @EnriqueFeas del double Irish y demás ingeniería financiera. No, No consiste en tipos bajos. Consiste en múltiples falsedades contables permitidas por esos paraísos para evadir la imposición. Vía @frdelatorre amp.vozpopuli.com/opinion/parais…

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More from @lugaricano

Luis Garicano 🇪🇺🇺🇦 Profile picture
Apr 19
New data shows that the EU Commission has blown the chance the NextGen gave it to get the EU on a growth path. Two key elements.
1. Pensions in Spain.
2. Reforms in italy.

The new data is from the ageing report of the EU Commission on the budgetary impact of the pension "reforms"- more below

( h/t @rdomenechv @fernandosols with official data from the Spanish government.)

Small THREAD (1/7)economy-finance.ec.europa.eu/publications/2…
The EU NextGen plans gave an unprecedented and powerful stick to the EU Commission to demand reforms and investments in exchange of money. Never has the Commission had the chance to get states to get some reforms going.

In Spain, the EU Commission has been complicit (in spite of numerous warnings) in setting Spain on an unsustainable Fiscal path
(2/7)
Under cover (!!!) of the "reforms" required by the European NextGen plan, the Spanish government abrogated the 2012 reforms of pensions (the single reform done by the Rajoy government), based on an automatic adjustment mechanism, without putting anything else meaningful in place.

The cost is 3.3 points of GDP higher than before the reform.

(3)Image
Read 7 tweets
Luis Garicano 🇪🇺🇺🇦 Profile picture
Mar 15
Some reactions to the (wonderful) Levitt interview.
1) On the @uchicago PhD program and the atmosphere in the department in the 90s (toxic?).
2) On Price Theory and its future at @uchicago and beyond.
3) On the "technification" of economics and the blurring of the "theory-empirics" boundaries.
(link to interview: )
(Thread)
1/npodcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/ste…
1) On the Econ PhD Program. I went in 1992, graduated in 1998. I did not feel the ambiance was toxic. It was tough work, almost brutal, not toxic. I was given a chance I would not have gotten elsewhere. There was nothing personal about the standards. We were getting trained by the best and that was intellectually invaluable -we got the chance of a lifetime. Here are some profs of my first two years (note 5 nobels):
Macro: Sargent, Lucas, Cochrane, Woodford, Stokey, Townsend.
Micro: Becker, Rosen, Murphy, Scheinkman
Metrics: Hansen, Heckman, Zellner.
It was extremely hard, by far the hardest thing I have ever done. But it should be hard. They were trying to put a bunch of kids at the frontier of knowledge.
It was not for everyone, but we knew what we were getting into. My admired supervisor, Sherwin Rosen, then department chair, gave us a "superstar" (he wrote THE paper after all) talk on the first day. He told us half of us would fail in the first year Core (and exit with an MA, is that so bad?), half of the rest would not make the prelims. Of the 50 we were there, maybe 10 would finish the PhD, most of those would never get any citation.
And yet we persisted. We wanted to learn, and were grateful for the hance.
2/n
2) On Price Theory. What is the Chicago Price Theory style? Best thing I can recommend is to experience it yourself by listening to the playlist of Kevin Murphy's classes. . He is an amazing teacher, and makes economics come alive.
Is it true as Levitt says, quoting Mulligan to Friedman, that this style of Micro lost in the market place of ideas?
3/nyoutube.com/@chicagopricet…
Read 10 tweets
Luis Garicano 🇪🇺🇺🇦 Profile picture
Oct 1, 2023
Prometí hacer un pequeño hilo con datos sobre el estancamiento de la economía española, al hilo de mi entrevista en @elmundoes.
Aquí van 4 gráficos. Al final del hilo, el texto de la entrevista completo.
La economía crece por demografía o por productividad.
Demografía: somos 47 millones.

La ONU estima que a finales de siglo seremos 30.8 millones, con una orquilla entre 21m y 43m: en el mejor caso (con mucha inmigración) estancamiento de la población.

data.un.org/Data.aspx?q=Sp…
Image
Productividad: estancada desde 2006. Ha crecido 0.5% en total en 16 años. Image
Read 6 tweets
Luis Garicano 🇪🇺🇺🇦 Profile picture
May 22, 2023
We have seen much about Bob Lucas' macro contributions these days, but he also had a highly influential contribution to the theory of the firm: the "assigment theory of the firm", which explains, for instance, why Musk earns so much (and controls so many resources).
THREAD Image
Before Lucas 1978, we had Marshall-Viner: individual firms have U-shaped long-run average cost functions. In equilibrium, each firm produces at the minimum point of this curve, with firm entry or exit adapting to get aggregate production. Resonable for plants, but not for firms! ImageImage
The size distribution which emerges is a solution to the problem: allocate production over firms to minimize total cost.
It goes without saying that this is counterfactual for firm size.
Here is the actual firm size distribution (Axtell, Science 2001). Image
Read 25 tweets
Luis Garicano 🇪🇺🇺🇦 Profile picture
May 4, 2023
🚨Stunning document, leaked today supposedly from GOOGLE, on whether there is a "moat" (Barrier to entry) in the LLM space.
The author argues neither Google nor OpenAI have a moat, and open source wins. Thread with critical comment at end:
semianalysis.com/p/google-we-ha…
The question of whether one-three players dominate the industry (like Operating Systems or Search) or it is perfectly competitive is hugely important:
1) For consumer welfare: more competition is better.
2) For control of direction/ethics: more competition makes it harder.
To answer the question requires answering: what are the barriers to entry protecting the incumbents? What can their competitive advantages be?

If there are huge barriers, then the winner (Google in search) takes it all in AI, like Google did in search or MSFT in Office.
Read 11 tweets
Luis Garicano 🇪🇺🇺🇦 Profile picture
Apr 19, 2023
Where are we on Climate Change?

Mike Greenstone @UChi_Economics gave a great talk @ChicagoBooth. I will post a few of his charts.

1. Including battery back-up, cost of electricity from renewables is 3x/4x more expensive than from fossil fuels. Image
2. Same for cars. Oil prices need to be quite high for EVs to be less costly: you need oil price at €129 for battery powered car to be more economical. Image
3. Fossile fuels will not just run out on their own.
On the contrary we are finding oil faster than we can use it:

We had 30 years worth of oil in 1980, 40 years today. Huge reserves of coal and gas. ImageImage
Read 12 tweets

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