Ani Profile picture
Aug 27, 2019 8 tweets 4 min read Read on X
Your savings lie in 2 bank acs - Bank B (for contingencies) & in Bank A (for daily expenses).

Due to an externality, you estimate that your expenses > than income + Bank A savings.

You have surplus savings in Bank B.

Will it be a good move to transfer the surplus from B to A?
In absence of this transfer, you may have to borrow to meet the expenses for the contingency.

Would it not be preferable to minimize increasing the debt burden when surplus savings can help partly meet the contingency?

That essentially is what’s happening with RBI transfer.
1. On behalf of We The People, Government manages the Public Exchequer. (Bank A)

2. Government (We The People) is the shareholder of RBI (Bank B)

3. Transferring Surplus from Bank B to Bank A does not alter claim of We The People.

4. It is an accounting entry for WTP!
“Government looting RBI” sounds as intelligent as claiming “I looted myself” by transferring my surplus from Bank B to Bank A!

Oversimplification?

Well of course yes!

For refined nuances, refer to @teasri’s thread.

Transferring Surplus to the Government in form of Dividends or One Time Gains is normal practice.

In India, and globally!
The BIS Paper on Central Bank Finances can be referred for understanding in detail which component of the Equity is distributable and which part should be left untouched.
The Bimal Jalan Committe has undertaken a comprehensive review of the Economic Capital Framework of the RBI in line with the Global Central Banking Standards.

Even after the transfer, RBI stands as a central bank with one of the highest levels of financial resilience globally!
So why is this transfer required?

Opens up fiscal space for Govt to Capitalize SOE Banks or Undertake GST Rate Cuts to give the Growth Stimulus to the Economy.

(Wasn’t this being demanded until last week? ₹5 ParleG?)

Stimulus with minimal incremental borrowing now possible!

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More from @anavrta

Mar 5, 2022
The asymmetry of this Event is quite stark!

And the unintended consequences of this event aren’t fully understood by Markets, Investors and Policymakers alike.

An Unprecedented situation in Global Financial History where $500bn of Reserves have disappeared for a Sovereign!
The Allure of holding treasuries can reduce dramatically post this event for Non-Western Nations.

Should Central Banks buy US/EUR Treasuries?

Should they diversify into other Assets?

Gold?

Can this event put RMB in prominent position in World Finance?

Questions that matter!
As the War excitement settles down, these questions will take center stage in Global Finance.

Wars have historically been periods catalyzing structural shifts in Currency usage – GBP to USD

Allure of Gold to increase materially with this event in International Monetary System.
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Mar 20, 2021
Maharashtra Power Play

This development gives the NIA, compete investigative control of the #AntiliaCase.

How can the MH Power-Play evolve from here?

While the news-flow regarding the cases will continue, the potential political realignment will be the lasting outcome.
After Sachin Vaze, the next in line for interrogation could likely be the ex-Mumbai CP Parambir Singh.

The change of guard was likely a measure by the MH Government to avoid the embarrassment of NIA interrogating a sitting CP.

NIA meeting Mumbai CP could be in this regard.
With both the key cops under NIA interrogation, the emerging details had the potential to be politically inconvenient for the MVA Sarkar.

Change of stance of MVA in its arguments in MH Assembly v/s it’s firefighting actions now is instructive.

It’s the Damage Control mode.
Read 23 tweets
Mar 11, 2021
The Ertugrul Turn in the Indian Subcontinent.

The next stage of the top-down Pakistan-Turkey geopolitical engagement and deepening of ties has started to take shape.

While the National Strategy may get formulated at the Top, its dissemination downwards requires a Cultural Turn.
PM Imran Khan is on record, of wanting Pakistan to replicate the Turkey model under his leadership.

The Ambassadors of distilling the strategic change into the cultural consciousness of a geography are often the National and Local Celebrities.

Turkish Game of Thrones is key. ImageImage
PM Imran Khan had been urging Pakistani’s to watch the 2014 Turkish TV Series Dirilis: Ertugrul.

COVID lockdown, gave the opportunity to plant the seeds of Pakistan’s cultural integration with Turkey with Imran Khan urging Pakistani youth to watch “Resurrection: Ertugrul”
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Feb 1, 2020
Ok let’s tackle the elephant in the room first. And primarily there are two of them.

1. Non Starter Personal Income Tax Cuts; and

2. Cues from Equity Markets.

The non starter personal income tax is disappointing for the middle class. It’s unlikely many will opt for new rates
For people to shift to new structure, their effective tax rate should have been lower than the proposed new structure.

While it doesn’t make sense for high income earners availing housing loans/HRA exemptions to shift, even many below 15lakhs won’t likely shift to new rates.
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Rather than giving ones earnings to the government, one would rather invest, even at the inconvenience of lower near term personal disposable income.

Proposed DTC rates fail the threshold.
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Jul 15, 2019
Borrowing rates for most developers have surged to the highest in more than a decade, in some cases about 20%.

Mortgage lenders struggling to roll over debt amid downgrades in their credit ratings.

Limited disbursals from committed Pre-sanctioned limits

livemint.com/industry/banki…
Tough time to be a lender.

Even tougher to be a Regulator!

RBI can at most ensure systemic liquidity remains well provided.

How can the RBI enforce last mile liquidity which has dried up due to loss of risk appetite among lenders amidst defaults/rating downgrades?
Real Estate and Real Estate Funding has been one of the least transparent and complex areas of Indian lending.

Disclosures by Dewan Housing, a AAA rated entity Jan-19, highlight the sources or risk aversion among banks/investors towards NBFCs and Real Estate financing at large.
Read 19 tweets
Jul 4, 2019
Dr. Urjit Patel’s presentation at Stanford is an extremely detailed and thoughtful analysis of Indian Banking.

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From Subbaro to Patel, all governors have called for this correction
Dr. Patel has dispassionately analyzed why Indian Banks have been structurally challenged.

He rightly calls out the failures on part of key stakeholders: Banks, RBI and Government.

The analysis has been broken down into Pre 2014 and Post 2014.

The buck stops with Pre 2014 Govt
The Post 2014 Analysis makes for an insightful read to understand the building blocks of the measures taken to structurally rebuild Indian Banking.

Interesting to note the challenges in the systematic turnaround despite the Legislative, Regulatory and Financial interventions.
Read 8 tweets

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