Unfortunately for the Fed, their focus on the unemployment rate was an analytical error, which is forcing them to play catch up at a time that economic growth is likely to slow. Note our leads below.
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Russia invasion adds material upside pressure to medium- and LT inflation assuming sanctions prohibit Russian oil cos to flip rubles for dollars. Opex in rubles. Lack of crude capex/assets already an upside factor. Puts the Fed in a corner to address inflation. Cc Mike T.
Thread on our recent piece (Unintended Consequences), which we sent out to our network last month:
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We think there are large unintended consequences of the most recent fiscal and monetary policy -- primarily in the form of a 12% nominal GDP print -- which has significant implications for the bond market.
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There is no cyclical impairment today, as job losses were policy induced (shut downs) vs. a credit tightening cycle. This view is clear via jobs data, as 40% of jobs lost are leisure and hospitality (2008 =9%, 2001 net gain) while the cyclical sectors = 9% (08=48%, 01=100%)
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