Teddy Vallee Profile picture
Aug 28, 2019 11 tweets 3 min read Read on X
Some charts on relative performance confirming out leads.
US chemicals / $SPX -- new lows
US autos / $SPX -- new lows
US Machinery / $SPX -- new lows
US Electrical equipment / $SPX -- new lows
US Banks / $SPX -- new lows
Global financials / $ACWI -- lows
Global materials / $ACWI -- lows
US Micro caps / $SPX -- no comment
High beta / Low vol -- new lows
$EEM bonds / US bonds -- new lows

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More from @TeddyVallee

Sep 4, 2022
. @EPBResearch coincident employment index just went negative [payrolls, u3, hours worked, etc].

Employment the most lagging indicator (ex inflation) and fading pretty fast.

Confirmed by full time employment (-ve 3mos in a row), as well as daily treasury wage withholding data.
Total hours worked via VP
Read 8 tweets
Jun 20, 2022
% of $SPX members above 50d sub 2%.

LeFaceRip#
Net leverage back to '09 via MS
CTA's in 1.8 %tile.
Read 6 tweets
Mar 15, 2022
Finishing up my quarterly letter, but a couple off thoughts off the top:

Move in rates and equites (tech) largely played out nicely as we outlined in our last quarterly below.


1/x
Unfortunately for the Fed, their focus on the unemployment rate was an analytical error, which is forcing them to play catch up at a time that economic growth is likely to slow. Note our leads below.

2/x Image
Russia invasion adds material upside pressure to medium- and LT inflation assuming sanctions prohibit Russian oil cos to flip rubles for dollars. Opex in rubles. Lack of crude capex/assets already an upside factor. Puts the Fed in a corner to address inflation. Cc Mike T.

3/x Image
Read 9 tweets
Mar 9, 2021
Thread on our recent piece (Unintended Consequences), which we sent out to our network last month:
1/n
We think there are large unintended consequences of the most recent fiscal and monetary policy -- primarily in the form of a 12% nominal GDP print -- which has significant implications for the bond market.
2/n
There is no cyclical impairment today, as job losses were policy induced (shut downs) vs. a credit tightening cycle. This view is clear via jobs data, as 40% of jobs lost are leisure and hospitality (2008 =9%, 2001 net gain) while the cyclical sectors = 9% (08=48%, 01=100%)
3/n
Read 12 tweets
Jan 9, 2020
Some internals to pay attention to:
$XME / $SPY through the lows
$XLI / $SPY off lows but rolling back over.
Read 11 tweets
Dec 9, 2019
US retail sales coming up this week. Credit card data showing further weakness.
Ladies - what's going on here? Cosmetics YoY
Mens/boys clothing
Read 9 tweets

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