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David Henig πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡¦ Profile picture
@DavidHenigUK
Aug 28, 2019 β€’ 39 tweets β€’ 30 min read β€’ Read on X
πŸ˜€in response to the prorogue parliament today rumours
If true, is this terribly clever? Rebels meet at Chruch House during prorogue creating regular media story, then amendment to Queens Speech creates chance to vote against the Government without having to no-confidence... then convention says Gov falls...?
Apparently the convention on Queens Speech amendment may no longer hold. But the broader point does. The Government, having failed to persuade Labour to table a no-confidence vote in Sept so an election could be called for Nov 1, just called its own no-confidence vote in October.
So now to see whether no-deal opponents hold good with their promise to keep meeting as an alternative Parliament, perhaps taking evidence of no-deal impacts...? Also, far from my area, can Parliament overturn the prorogue decision in September?
This story will develop. So many impacts - from an EU negotiating point of view Johnson can now not say he has a majority for a deal. So no-deal goes up in probability. From a UK precedent point of view, a clear hit to parliamentary sovereignty.
Also this, would there now be any time to pass a Withdrawal Agreement? Ultimately though start counting the numbers for a Vote of No Confidence around Oct 21.
Will keep adding some of the bets comments in response to today's prorogue / Queens speech news
This. Always this. The numbers. And also whether MPs opposed continue to meet while Parliament is not sitting.
Well. (sorry @davidallengreen). New theory, prorogation to spark the early election Number 10 actually wanted?
@davidallengreen My twitter feed....
@davidallengreen A key question for the EU negotiations is this - is the EU more likely to make concessions to avoid no-deal, or to get a deal through Parliament? Serious EU watchers think the latter, making today's announcement a move towards no-deal
@davidallengreen "Member States are watching what Parliament does with great interest and it is only by showing unity and resolve that we stand a chance of securing a new deal that can be passed by Parliament". True. Impossible to do if not sitting. Blatantly contradictory
@davidallengreen MPs who don't want no-deal have to home in on this point - he is saying one thing and doing something completely different. And there's no realistic chance of a deal on the basis of what he is doing.
@davidallengreen Questionable as to whether this is Government's plan
@davidallengreen Thinking - wouldn't the easiest thing be for Parliament now to pass an emergency bill next week to continue sitting until the Queens Speech? Bound to pass you would think, and avoid the VONC trap. (how about extra 3 weeks and give Parliament control?)
@davidallengreen Basically Parliamentary opponents of no-deal need to sidestep this. Really quite feasible. Every chance today's Government plan soon looks like one of Baldrick's cunning plans...
@davidallengreen Sorry / not sorry, but the reactions keep coming...
@davidallengreen A plan... from @GeorgePeretzQC
@davidallengreen @GeorgePeretzQC They might want to give this impression, but if this is really the strategy they are naive about the EU and prepared to take on their own party. Doesn't seem likely. More likely a move towards no-deal and an election soon after.
@davidallengreen @GeorgePeretzQC Like @lewis_goodall never saw a difference between the two sides in their willingness to define themselves as noble and the other as vandals. But this misses what's been the crucial issue for two years - the Government does not have a majority
@davidallengreen @GeorgePeretzQC @lewis_goodall The theory behind today's announcement. Like several others of recent weeks doesn't feel as clever as it is clearly meant to be.
@davidallengreen @GeorgePeretzQC @lewis_goodall Brilliant short thread by @Sime0nStylites - the worst thing about this prorogue decision is that provokes further division rather than trying to unite
@davidallengreen @GeorgePeretzQC @lewis_goodall @Sime0nStylites Turns out Government may actually not be able to fully prorogue through early October thanks to an earlier Grieve amendment...
@davidallengreen @GeorgePeretzQC @lewis_goodall @Sime0nStylites So if I'm not mistaken the Government has made an announcement today about proroguing Parliament which they can't fully deliver due to the previous Grieve amendment, but have galvanised the anti no-deal crowd in doing so. Garvan may be right here...
@davidallengreen @GeorgePeretzQC @lewis_goodall @Sime0nStylites And meanwhile this...
@davidallengreen @GeorgePeretzQC @lewis_goodall @Sime0nStylites There's some debate on whether Parliament needs to return on 9 October or that's covered by the timetable announced... we'll see. More broadly today's announcement seems to have galvanised anti no-deal MPs and ensured all attention returns to Brexit, not sure that was the plan
@davidallengreen @GeorgePeretzQC @lewis_goodall @Sime0nStylites This as well... I think there will be a lot of mumbling around Number 10 today, are you sure Cummings is a master strategist?
@davidallengreen @GeorgePeretzQC @lewis_goodall @Sime0nStylites Meanwhile, red herring alert. Since we're promised a different Withdrawal Agreement if one returns at all this would not actually be relevant. There are circumstances this would be relevant, but hard to see them. And still why such a long delay?
@davidallengreen @GeorgePeretzQC @lewis_goodall @Sime0nStylites Similarly the theory that Johnson is serious about negotiations, which some in EU still hope, doesn't really hold. Double-crossing the very people cheering his announcement today to get the votes of those denouncing him doesn't feel credible
@davidallengreen @GeorgePeretzQC @lewis_goodall @Sime0nStylites As expected, not all in Government completely convinced...
@davidallengreen @GeorgePeretzQC @lewis_goodall @Sime0nStylites Not really an anti-democratic coup. More the actions of a Government without a majority on the key issue of the day taking advantage of the space given in our constitution to usually majority Governments. Sign of weakness Gov have to run from MPs, and it can still be outvoted.
@davidallengreen @GeorgePeretzQC @lewis_goodall @Sime0nStylites A reminder that the Government's decision to prorogue affects more than Brexit (it also takes away the Trade Bill, Agriculture Bill among others)
@davidallengreen @GeorgePeretzQC @lewis_goodall @Sime0nStylites Apparently Parliament can in theory at least overturn the decision to prorogue. So emergency debate granted by speaker given his role, and vote to overturn? But then does that need to be turned into law, which is more difficult...
@davidallengreen @GeorgePeretzQC @lewis_goodall @Sime0nStylites Am finding the reaction to today's announcement from elsewhere to be interesting - with less emotional investment they are focusing squarely on the democratic implications, and it doesn't look good for the UK
@davidallengreen @GeorgePeretzQC @lewis_goodall @Sime0nStylites And I know we're focused on the UK, but meanwhile the Irish have been making clear, again, that the backstop is not being taken out of a UK-EU Withdrawal Agreement. Argument Parliament being prorogued to allow Johnson to make a deal utterly unconvincing
@davidallengreen @GeorgePeretzQC @lewis_goodall @Sime0nStylites Lots of noise but I wonder whether the only thing that has really changed today is that opponents of no-deal are angrier. There will still be a legislative attempt to prevent it, but ultimately it may all depend on enough anti no-deal MPs agreeing on a new PM around Oct 20...
@davidallengreen @GeorgePeretzQC @lewis_goodall @Sime0nStylites Ancient history this letter of course, but the point made within about the bills that fall, and the secondary legislation that doesn't happen. How can we be assured that all is on track when Parliament will only sit a handful of days at the end of October?
@davidallengreen @GeorgePeretzQC @lewis_goodall @Sime0nStylites From the optimistic branch of the Conservative Party...
@davidallengreen @GeorgePeretzQC @lewis_goodall @Sime0nStylites Ok, drawing this thread on what happened to a close, and await the more sober takes on what it means and what happens next. My own starter on that, borrowing from @Sime0nStylites, it has been another divisive day in UK politics, and that is dangerous. /end (for now)

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More from @DavidHenigUK

David Henig πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡¦ Profile picture
Apr 18
Increasingly thinking that Labour is going to need some clever way to handle the EU issue otherwise there is going to be a lot of difficulty and frustration spilling into government. And judging by my inbox, affecting negotiations. theguardian.com/commentisfree/…
Problem with these "we can't talk about it but we always talk about it" issues is that they don't go away, and particularly when they involve international talks with a player like the EU, you simply add levels of complexity potentially making it unmanageable.
Worse with UK-EU is the sheer number of players and subjects involved, and that both sides have unfinished emotional business. More on the EU side to come, but the fact every UK story generates reaction tells you this isn't all forgotten...
Read 20 tweets
David Henig πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡¦ Profile picture
Jan 31
I see we're predicted to be back in the realms today of hurrying through Parliament another Brexit change without debate just to show we haven't really learnt anything, but from the tail end of yesterday's thread here's some of what I'm expecting on Northern Ireland, plus...
There are briefings that either / both - new EU law will no longer automatically be applied in Northern Ireland (it never was) / the UK will agree not to diverge from relevant EU law to avoid UK divergence (wouldn't necessarily remove SPS checks but will keep UK alignment).
As with the Windsor Framework and before, expect an enormous amount of spin that will mostly be reported without challenge, and a handful of us unfortunate enough to read it all (@Usherwood and @JP_Biz are usually good bets in that department).
Read 21 tweets
David Henig πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡¦ Profile picture
Jan 30
And the morning news is a deal over Northern Ireland and Brexit. But... this statement isn't true under the Windsor Framework. Even if the UK government decide to align food and drink regulations with the EU. So is this really all settled? theguardian.com/politics/2024/…
Image
Now under the Windsor Framework entry checks to Northern Ireland were reduced. But these are not eliminated by UK alignment. Possibly the DUP has finally decided to agree that these are not so different to those of pre-2016. But equally, be wary of false promises unravelling.
Obviously good news for Northern Ireland if Stormont returns. As long as that can be sustained. That's going to quite possibly mean a lot more days like yesterday, because the issues around Brexit aren't going away given Northern Ireland is the entry point to the single market.
Read 22 tweets
David Henig πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡¦ Profile picture
Jan 25
UK trade news! Canada have proved persistently tough negotiating partners for the UK, and this comes as little surprise. The existing replica of the EU agreement is presumed to hold for now, but must also raise a question on CPTPP ratification.
Worth noting that UK refusal to change food standards has been an issue for Canada, while UK access to dairy is an inevitable issue the other way. But still a blow to the government's trade story.
At this stage we have no update on Canada's approach to making tea...
Read 7 tweets
David Henig πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡¦ Profile picture
Jan 19
Good piece on Northern Ireland. Clearly the DUP take some blame for refusing to return to Stormont. But their position is pretty predictable, and the UK government has consistently failed in efforts to change that, digging the hole deeper as they go. politico.eu/article/no-gov…
Doesn't seem like the government ever had a Plan B for the entirely predictable (and widely predicted) situation in which the DUP rejected the Windsor Framework. They were so confident that they had negotiated brilliantly (heard someone involved bragging exactly this).
Can't help thinking I've heard this before (and yesterday's version was there wouldn't be any agreement for a long time), but let's see if the DUP are prepared to suddenly fold on their stated reasons for not being in Stormont...
Read 5 tweets
David Henig πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡¦ Profile picture
Jan 19
To be clear because I've read this twice already today, a UK-EU SPS agreement would almost certainly NOT remove all barriers to trade in food and drink products.

It could ease some of them. But that difference between the single market and lesser arrangements will remain.
Thing is, loose talk in the UK on EU deals has consequences, because when the Commission read that the UK is going to remove all food and drink barriers while staying out of the single market they think "unacceptable cherry picking / they haven't learnt anything".
There's a realistic UK-EU SPS deal to be had based on substantive but not dynamic regulatory alignment in which trade barriers are lowered but not removed but even this will be a tough negotiation requiring a lot of mutual understanding and could easily fail.
Read 5 tweets

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