Thread by @iyad_elbaghdadi

It's been over 24 hours since I tweeted this, about Saud Al Qahtani's fate. Many fine journalists have been on it since. There's been no official confirmation, but perhaps more importantly for me, no refutation either. At this point I'm choosing to post a thread with what I know:

https://twitter.com/iyad_elbaghdadi/status/1166319037942554631

Yesterday morning I received news that Saud Al Qahtani (SQ) had been poisoned to death by Mohammad bin Salman. The source is well placed and has been consistently reliable for nearly a year. I cannot publicly reveal anything else about this source.

In the course of yesterday I came to know that at least two other persons had received the same information, although in a different format. Both of these persons are accomplished professionals. I cannot confirm whether their source is the same as mine.

Additionally, at least two other people known to me had received, three days ago, news that SQ had "disappeared", with no further details. Again I cannot confirm whether their source for this is the same as mine.

I cannot repeat *all* of what I've been told, but highlights follow:
- MBS feels more threatened after @AgnesCallamard's UN report
- There's also been consistent pressure from the US to give up SQ. Pompeo pressuring the King and Kushner pressuring MBS

@AgnesCallamard Cont. what I was told:
- MBS finally took the drastic step of killing his own enforcer
- SQ died six days ago by cyanide poisoning
- MBS seems to have finally understood that SQ is a liability and is unlikely to give any future adviser as much power

@AgnesCallamard Cont. what I was told:
- My source mocked the choice of cyanide. "At least pick a method that's harder to trace"
- US admin knows everything, and are *not* happy
- After all, killing off SQ this way is essentially cognisense of guilt on MBS's behalf, won't make it go away

@AgnesCallamard Cont.:
- Also, going after your won enforcers is *never* a good idea for a dictator
- That said, had SQ been put in trial, he would have fought back and it would have implicated MBS

@AgnesCallamard After I put out the news yesterday, I reached out to two independent US intel linked sources. Within minutes, they both returned to me with confirmations that Saud Al Qahtani is dead and that his death will be spun as an overdose.

@AgnesCallamard Journalists who tried to reach out to official US intel sources did not receive any confirmation. This does not surprise me - my original source told me that while the Americans weren't happy, they promised MBS to keep the news classified until he himself reveals it.

@AgnesCallamard According to this, the US is giving MBS the opportunity to put his story out there first. If true this is consistent with US intel sources privately confirming vs officially "steering away".

@AgnesCallamard Gulf-based journalists are tightly controlled but have also been trying. One who spoke to a Saudi diplomat got this answer: "Someone called Saud Al Qahtani died, but then Qahtani is a big family and there are many people called Saud". I'm not even joking.

@AgnesCallamard Meanwhile activists have noted that the Saudi online propaganda engine has not pushed back against the news. "Twitter has been quiet for a week" - said a prominent Saudi influencer privately. The last time this happened was briefly in October 2018 when SQ was reshuffled.

@AgnesCallamard There's a complicated conspiracy theory (mere speculation, not heard from any source) saying SQ may be trying to fake his own death so that he can escape accountability. You can't be too paranoid about MBS and SQ, but one thing can decisively confirm: a funeral.

@AgnesCallamard Would there be a funeral? Is it possible for MBS to hide the news forever? Highly unlikely he would. Al-Qahtani is a huge and influential family, so if SQ died there will be a funeral. Even MBS opponents who died in the Ritz got funerals.

@AgnesCallamard How confident am I in all of this?
- My primary source has been consistently reliable
- Two US intel linked sources privately confirmed
- No pushback from Saudi propaganda machine on Twitter
- I'm convinced; but then again I'm not a newspaper

@AgnesCallamard Final point: @Twitter can confirm whether or not someone has recently logged into SQ's account (@saudq1978). I'm also pretty sure they won't. But if it's confirmed that he's dead, I think they should immediately lock the account.

@AgnesCallamard @Twitter @saudq1978 I understand journalists are in a very difficult situation on whether to run with the news because they cannot get a confirmation. And given that neither the US nor the Saudis will confirm, I don't think news platforms will be able to state this as a fact soon.

@AgnesCallamard @Twitter @saudq1978 Which brings me to the final point. Why did my original source leak to me? Well, it appears my source wanted the news to be out *before* MBS manages to spin it. They wanted to throw a wrench in MBS's plan/apparent agreement with US admin to allow him to run with it first.

@AgnesCallamard @Twitter @saudq1978 I wonder what MBS is thinking now that the news are out. I also wonder what a post-SQ world would look like for everyone - for the region, for dissidents, for human rights activists, for regular folks, and for MBS himself. So many analysis op-eds in my mind.

@AgnesCallamard @Twitter @saudq1978 SQ said "bring me the head of the dog" during Jamal's murder. This wasn't rhetorical, these were orders. SQ himself has said that he does nothing without orders from MBS - in fact, he tweeted as much:

https://twitter.com/saudq1978/status/898273541367451648

@AgnesCallamard @Twitter @saudq1978 MBS is ultimately responsible for all of SQ's actions. MBS thought he'd get away from a murder by committing another. As for @saudq1978, it's quite a thing that his Twitter account's cover photo will forever be a picture of... his murderer.

@AgnesCallamard @Twitter @saudq1978 This is all I have for now. "End of Text" (as they say in Egypt lol). I'll try to answer your questions on here.

Maybe someone can directly ask the White House? Or Kushner specifically?

For the record this is also true. Khalid bin Salman is in the US, so is the Saudi intel chief. Wonder if this is on the agenda.

https://twitter.com/claytonswisher/status/1166748304203558912

Here's how the story can be refuted: Establish that SQ is still alive. I wonder who's in a position to do so.

I may not get to revisit this tomorrow so here's final note for now. Based upon what I laid out above, I'm convinced. However we don't have decisive confirmation or refutation, and it may take a while. Let's see.