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David Henig 🇺🇦 Profile picture
@DavidHenigUK
Sep 2, 2019 • 17 tweets • 5 min read • Read on X
So these election rumours, credible I'm sure, but there are some real-world issues. For a start officials aren't really supposed to do any new work during purdah - that could easily define to include no-deal preparation, particularly of issues as yet unresolved
Obviously there should be no real negotiations during an election campaign, so essentially we lose 5-6 weeks of at least pretending. Nothing before mid-October, so it will either be no-deal or alternate PM must beg the EU for an extension.
Government public information must be scaled back during an election campaign, so no get ready for no-deal campaign, as this could affect the result.
Basically if we have an election Brexit is put on hold for the duration. It will be a sign of a totally unserious Government to propose such, and an opposition similar to agree to it, given the immediacy of the challenge of a no-deal Brexit. On this basis it could well happen
Some more thoughts on an early election here - there's a lot of problems with the idea relating to Brexit...
Calling an election without seeking an extension to the date on which we leave the EU would be a dereliction of duty on an epic scale for those proposing it, and a test for the opposition who have to avoid the obvious attraction.

Pause for a second to reflect that after just under six weeks in total, and only one day of Parliamentary time, this Government may be about to decide that the Commons is so unmanageable on Brexit that an election is required.
A week before a no-deal Brexit? Not a tweet to fill anyone with confidence that politicians have yet thought through the implications of an early election
Looks like some MPs are at least aware of some of the problems of an early election
Could election talk may be another of Number 10 cunning plans? Having failed previously to get Labour to table a no-confidence vote, he now threatens potential Conservative rebels with an election if they vote against, hoping to either get an election or win the no-deal vote...
The problem so far has been every time Number 10 has laid a trap neither the Labour leadership or Conservative rebels have fallen for it...
If Number 10 are now saying voting against no-deal is a confidence matter then does that equally mean an alternate Prime Minister could be appointed if they lose? Surely anti no-dealers must be tempted to see if they could agree something now they see the alternative...?
Signs that folk in the opposition understand what the Government is planning (@paulmasonnews recorded outside the Doghouse pub in Kennington if I'm not mistaken)
@paulmasonnews If the Government hadn't rushed through the prorogue decision they wouldn't have then had to keep doubling down towards an election. They may be missing a wise old head who would have told them another couple of weeks of Parliament really wasn't the end of the world
@paulmasonnews An election is a bad idea part 94...
@paulmasonnews Looks like another cunning plan starting to fall... Baldrick Cummings?
@paulmasonnews Backtracking on election in progress...?

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More from @DavidHenigUK

David Henig 🇺🇦 Profile picture
Apr 2
Welcome to US tariff day during which a lot will be written and most of it won't be quite right. What we know - the US will impose arbitrary ("reciprocal" only in name) tariffs on most or all goods entering the country, on top of others already announced. 1/n
US tariffs are being imposed because President Trump likes tariffs. There is no economic logic. There are many stated reasons including encouraging US manufacturing, narrowing the trade deficit, due to unfairness of others, and raising revenue. None are convincing.
Tariffs will harm the US economy. All reputable economists will agree to this. As with any populist leader, some individuals will seek preferment over reputation. These tariffs will also be contrary to WTO rules, and trade deals the US including Trump previously signed.
Read 9 tweets
David Henig 🇺🇦 Profile picture
Jan 23
My morning has been pemmed. Which is fine, I've advocated for the UK joining, talked to relevant folk in the EU, heard businesses who it could help, etc. Problem is - this should be completely obvious. Every country in the region is a member. Why is it so hard for the UK?
Leavers don't care about PEM. Few businesses will lose, far more will gain. Third countries like Switzerland and Morocco want the UK to join. Yes nobody knows for sure why we didn't previously join, or why it isn't a priority now.
Until the UK does the obvious stuff like PEM, forget having a meaningful trade policy still less any meaningful EU reset. Got to take the baby steps first...
Read 4 tweets
David Henig 🇺🇦 Profile picture
Oct 3, 2024
What you seem unlikely to read elsewhere - yesterday's Starmer - von der Leyen meeting was successful, and had the right outcome - a commitment to regular ongoing summits, and joint working to prepare them.

No flounces, no talk of special deals. Normality theguardian.com/politics/2024/…
To those complaining about the UK's lack of detail - a lazy, uninformed complaint. The EU doesn't (yet) have a mandate, the UK doesn't (yet) need to have all the asks. Both need to come in time. That will be the test of the next few months, now was not the time. As was agreed.
Those saying this is going nowhere until the UK implements everything in full, that message was received and @NickTorfaen explicitly said this at an EU reception at Labour Conference. Labour's messaging hasn't been perfect to date, it has though been good enough.
Read 10 tweets
David Henig 🇺🇦 Profile picture
Jun 20, 2024
Three days in Brussels mostly talking UK-EU relations after the elections with various folk on all sides, but also hard to get away from US-EU-China talk, or concerns about the direction of travel for the EU. So what were my top 10 findings? Settle down for a thread 🧵
1 - though far from top priority, the EU will happily engage with the UK. There's interest in what a new government will do. But they also expect their own interests - recently youth mobility, and fishing - to be taken seriously. Where there's overlap - security - expect progress
2 - the UK has to prepare for a really tough ongoing engagement with the EU. This will not be a single negotiation but a series of small encounters, mini-deals, cooperations etc. Unless Labour red lines change. A new narrative for the relationship - but only in part.
Read 15 tweets
David Henig 🇺🇦 Profile picture
Jun 12, 2024
There are some very good reasons not to talk about Brexit in the election.

It happened. It was traumatic. It didn't go very well. It isn't easily changed.

Rejoiners tend to forget the 2nd and 4th, Brexiters the 3rd.

theguardian.com/politics/artic…
Like it or not, we are stuck for a while in the technocratic realities of international relations when it comes to UK-EU relations. I'd expect there to be a time when that changes, when there's a rejuvenated campaign for rejoining, but not for a while.
Why are the technocratic realities of international relations not a hot topic in the General Election?

Asked nobody, for good reason. Not that UK-EU relations won't be important to various policy issues. But hardly top-ticket politics.
Read 9 tweets
David Henig 🇺🇦 Profile picture
Jun 12, 2024
Today's big trade news - that the EU will apply additional tariffs of around 25% on Chinese made Electric Vehicles, on the basis that they have benefitted from illegal subsidies. This comes as a result of furious lobbying for higher or lower figures. ft.com/content/0545ed…
The US has imposed higher Chinese EV tariffs, without specific justification, and it was suggested 50% was needed in the EU to remove cost advantage. But some or more of this is natural competitive advantage from far earlier investment. The EU was looking as ever for a balance.
My suspicion has long been that China was broadly aware that politically the EU had to act, and that a 15-20% tariff on EV they were prepared to bear though with some retaliation because that's what happens in such cases. The furious lobbying came against much higher figures.
Read 11 tweets

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