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Eric Basmajian Profile picture
@EPBResearch
Sep 3, 2019 • 5 tweets • 1 min read • Read on X
"Slowest month (July) this year so far in sales." (Transportation Equipment)

#ISM
"Slightly lower rate of incoming orders may be seasonal or a sign of a general slowdown. Monitoring closely." (Fabricated Metal Products)
"Incoming sales seem to be slowing down, and this is usually our busiest season. Concerns about the economy and tariffs." (Furniture & Related Products)
"Business is starting to show signs of a broad slowdown." (Machinery)
"The market for large building structures is slowing." (Nonmetallic Mineral Products)

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More from @EPBResearch

Eric Basmajian Profile picture
Aug 8
The "Duncan Leading Index" was created from the idea that changes in the economy stem from a few sectors.

The pandemic roiled many of these sectors, and we can still see the impact.

Let's check on the momentum of these sectors and what it says about the economy today.

1/17
Generally speaking, the economy has four primary categories: private consumption, private investment, net exports, and government spending.

2/17 Image
The Duncan Leading Index involves tracking three narrow segments of the economy: durable goods consumption, residential investment, and non-residential investment.

3/17 Image
Read 18 tweets
Eric Basmajian Profile picture
Jul 16
A visualization of the US debt situation:

Where does all the debt sit?

Where are the problem areas?

Let's break down the sectors with the largest and fastest-growing debt burdens 👇.

1/16 Image
At the top of the stack, we have total debt, which includes all public and private sources.

Total debt is 351% of GDP.

In 2007, total debt averaged 351% of GDP so there's been no aggregate deleveraging at all.

2/16 Image
While there's been no aggregate deleveraging, there's been a shift from private to public.

Private debt is equal to 233% of GDP, down from 290% in 2007.

Public debt is 117% of GDP, up from 61% in 2007.

3/16 Image
Read 17 tweets
Eric Basmajian Profile picture
Jul 7
Existing home inventory: near record low.

New home inventory: near record high.

What's the real story?

Let's explore the true US housing inventory situation and what it means for the construction sector and the broader economy going forward 👇

1/x Image
In order to get the most accurate reading on the US housing market inventory situation, we need to consider both supply and demand.

Supply, in this case, is the level of inventory for sale, and demand is the current pace of sales volume.

2/x
If we start with sales volume, we can see that the existing home market sells roughly 3.7 million homes per year while the new home market sells 619,000 homes per year.

3/x Image
Read 34 tweets
Eric Basmajian Profile picture
Mar 25
Are new home prices declining, or is the size of a new home just getting smaller?

A bit of both.

Here's some data.

1/5
The median sq ft of a new single-family housing start has declined in recent years, falling from 2,335 sq ft in 2022 to 2,156 sq ft in Q4 2023.

The median sales price of a new single-family home has been declining since Q3 2022, falling from ~$480,000 to $422,000.

2/5 Image
This is a back-of-the-envelope method, but if we divide the median sales price of a new single-family home by the median sq ft of a new SF home start, we get a proxy for the price per sq ft of a median new home sale.

There's been a ~10% reduction in price per sq ft.

3/5 Image
Read 5 tweets
Eric Basmajian Profile picture
Mar 7
Is the quality of the BLS jobs data worsening?

Let's talk about the response rate to the BLS data and some ways we can get a more complete answer on the labor market.

A quick thread:

1/ Image
The BLS Employment Situation report has two major surveys: the Household and the Establishment.

2/
The Household Survey is the lesser-used measure of employment, although it contains critical measures like the unemployment rate.

The overall response rate for this survey has declined from 90% to 70%.

3/ Image
Read 15 tweets
Eric Basmajian Profile picture
Mar 3
Historically, when nominal growth is lower than overnight policy rates, capital is sucked out of the real economy and into short-term government securities (crowding out), which starves the real economy of resources and furthers the deceleration in nominal growth.

1/4 Image
We see this dynamic unfolding in real-time as real bank loan growth has contracted since August 2023.

2/4 Image
There are many competing theories for why the US economy has been able to continue expanding while lending has been shut off at commercial banks.

On an inflation-adjusted basis, M4 remains slightly above the pre-pandemic trendline, before the large money mountain was created.

3/4Image
Read 4 tweets

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