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Eric Basmajian Profile picture
@EPBResearch
Sep 3, 2019 • 5 tweets • 1 min read • Read on X
"Slowest month (July) this year so far in sales." (Transportation Equipment)

#ISM
"Slightly lower rate of incoming orders may be seasonal or a sign of a general slowdown. Monitoring closely." (Fabricated Metal Products)
"Incoming sales seem to be slowing down, and this is usually our busiest season. Concerns about the economy and tariffs." (Furniture & Related Products)
"Business is starting to show signs of a broad slowdown." (Machinery)
"The market for large building structures is slowing." (Nonmetallic Mineral Products)

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More from @EPBResearch

Eric Basmajian Profile picture
Jun 22
Where does the US economy stand today?

Is the economy strong, or is it vulnerable to new geopolitical shocks?

Here's how to analyze exactly where the economy stands at any time 🧵

1/ Image
With endless economic news, it's challenging to grasp the economy's current standing accurately.

A structured process is crucial for filtering data to inform business and investment decisions.

2/
At EPB Research, we utilize a “Four Economy Framework” to understand exactly where the economy stands today and where it is heading tomorrow by categorizing and sequencing incoming economic data into four buckets based on the order in which they move in the business cycle.

3/ Image
Read 22 tweets
Eric Basmajian Profile picture
Jun 14
Cracks Are Spreading in the U.S. Labor Market

The labor market hasn’t collapsed.

But beneath the surface, key employment metrics are deteriorating 🧵

1/13
I analyzed 5 critical labor market ratios, and they tell a consistent story.

Labor demand is falling, but layoffs haven’t meaningfully started yet.

Here’s what that means for the broader business cycle 👇

2/13
Let's first focus on the 25–54-year-old “prime-age” population, as this filters out distortions from retirement and demographics.

3/13
Read 13 tweets
Eric Basmajian Profile picture
May 30
National data shows a housing market in perfect balance, but extreme regional differences exist.

Some states have low inventory and continue to show strong pricing.

11 states have high inventory and major price pressure.

Here's the breakdown of the US housing market 🧵

1/25 Image
Inventory in the new construction market is at the highest level since the 2008 housing crisis, and this is leading to a massive divide in the housing market.

2/25 Image
Whenever analyzing the housing market, it’s important to look at what’s going on in the existing housing market as well as the new construction market.

3/25
Read 26 tweets
Eric Basmajian Profile picture
Apr 21
New residential building permits is one of the best leading indicators of recessions.

Here's how you can easily make it even better.

(And what it's saying now)...

1/
Building permits are a great leading indicator because they are an early step in the residential construction process.

We know that residential construction is a critical part of the business cycle, so getting an early lead on this is important.

2/ Image
Big declines in building permits lead recessions because it anticipates declines in construction activity and therefore, residential construction related employment.

3/
Read 13 tweets
Eric Basmajian Profile picture
Apr 9
Tariffs on, tariffs off.

No one knows the next policy move.

But here's the economic reality of how tariffs impact the economy and why they should be used carefully...🧵

1/
The arguments or the stated goals of tariff policy are clear – protecting current American jobs from unfair foreign competition, reshoring manufacturing plants and high-paying jobs, and closing large trade deficits.

2/
However, the economic reality of tariffs is unlikely to achieve these goals for the following reasons.

3/
Read 11 tweets
Eric Basmajian Profile picture
Mar 31
The labor market is holding together on the surface, but concerning details appear under the hood.

No quitting and no hiring, but also no firing yet.

Here's the real story behind the US labor market.

1/
To start, the health and vibrance of the labor market comes from the goods economy of construction and manufacturing.

So this is where we focus.

If you need a primer on why, check this out:

2/
When we look at the BLS employment report, the combination of construction & manufacturing continues to increase.

If these cyclical jobs were declining, that would be a major step towards recession.

So far, they are increasing, which is a good thing.

3/ Image
Read 14 tweets

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