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Eric Basmajian Profile picture
@EPBResearch
Sep 3, 2019 • 5 tweets • 1 min read • Read on X
"Slowest month (July) this year so far in sales." (Transportation Equipment)

#ISM
"Slightly lower rate of incoming orders may be seasonal or a sign of a general slowdown. Monitoring closely." (Fabricated Metal Products)
"Incoming sales seem to be slowing down, and this is usually our busiest season. Concerns about the economy and tariffs." (Furniture & Related Products)
"Business is starting to show signs of a broad slowdown." (Machinery)
"The market for large building structures is slowing." (Nonmetallic Mineral Products)

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More from @EPBResearch

Eric Basmajian Profile picture
Mar 25
Are new home prices declining, or is the size of a new home just getting smaller?

A bit of both.

Here's some data.

1/5
The median sq ft of a new single-family housing start has declined in recent years, falling from 2,335 sq ft in 2022 to 2,156 sq ft in Q4 2023.

The median sales price of a new single-family home has been declining since Q3 2022, falling from ~$480,000 to $422,000.

2/5 Image
This is a back-of-the-envelope method, but if we divide the median sales price of a new single-family home by the median sq ft of a new SF home start, we get a proxy for the price per sq ft of a median new home sale.

There's been a ~10% reduction in price per sq ft.

3/5 Image
Read 5 tweets
Eric Basmajian Profile picture
Mar 7
Is the quality of the BLS jobs data worsening?

Let's talk about the response rate to the BLS data and some ways we can get a more complete answer on the labor market.

A quick thread:

1/ Image
The BLS Employment Situation report has two major surveys: the Household and the Establishment.

2/
The Household Survey is the lesser-used measure of employment, although it contains critical measures like the unemployment rate.

The overall response rate for this survey has declined from 90% to 70%.

3/ Image
Read 15 tweets
Eric Basmajian Profile picture
Mar 3
Historically, when nominal growth is lower than overnight policy rates, capital is sucked out of the real economy and into short-term government securities (crowding out), which starves the real economy of resources and furthers the deceleration in nominal growth.

1/4 Image
We see this dynamic unfolding in real-time as real bank loan growth has contracted since August 2023.

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There are many competing theories for why the US economy has been able to continue expanding while lending has been shut off at commercial banks.

On an inflation-adjusted basis, M4 remains slightly above the pre-pandemic trendline, before the large money mountain was created.

3/4Image
Read 4 tweets
Eric Basmajian Profile picture
Mar 2
How does this Business Cycle compare to cycles of the past?

That depends on what part of the Business Cycle Sequence you are looking at.

The following charts map the performance of Leading, Cyclical, and Aggregate Indicators compared to past Business Cycles 👇

1/
Traditional Leading Indicators continue to perform poorly, worse than the average of past cycles.

This chart maps the cumulative monthly performance of the Leading Economic Index after the 10YR3M spread initially inverted.

2/ Image
The Cyclical Economy has contracted over the last 14 months, but fractionally so.

The Cyclical Economy is performing better than the average cycle and is on par with the 2001 Business Cycle.

3/ Image
Read 8 tweets
Eric Basmajian Profile picture
Feb 11
State-level Coincident Indexes tell us about how trends in economic growth are spreading across the country.

Montana is a disaster!

One key element of Business Cycles is the spreading or "diffusion" of trends.

Let's see what the most recent state-level data is saying 👇

1/ Image
As a reminder, Coincident Indexes tell us what's happening right now. They are not Leading Indexes.

Coincident Indexes define recessionary periods so a negative coincident growth rate is definitionally a recession.

2/
The Philadelphia Fed provides state-level Coincident Indexes, which are baskets of:

nonfarm payrolls, unemployment rate, average hours worked in manufacturing, and wages & salaries

The trend for each state index is set to match the trend for gross state product

3/
Read 10 tweets
Eric Basmajian Profile picture
Jan 17
Manufacturing production has contracted for 14 consecutive months.

The average growth rate of manufacturing production in 2022 was 2.0%

In 2023, growth averaged -0.7%.

1/4 Image
Manufacturing production has been down about 1% since the yield curve inverted in November 2022.

On average, manufacturing production rises for about 9 months after the yield curve inverts.

Today's trajectory is weaker than average.

2/4 Image
In the 2008 cycle, manufacturing production didn't turn down until 16 months after the yield curve inverted (Dec 07).

Recession fatigue is at an extreme today about 13 months post 10YR3M inversion.

It's been quickly forgotten how long the 08 cycle took across all coincident data.

3/4Image
Read 4 tweets

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