Thread by @areacode416

Here's my first-look at the TREB monthly stats released today. In every way you look at it, the aggregate GTA stats show a tighter market than last year.
Sales ⬆️ Prices ⬆️
Listings ⬇️ DOM ⬇️
As I keep reminding, comparing to weak year, but still. 1/ #torontorealestate #TREBstats

First time I can remember in a while that all housing types in both 905 and 416 being ⬆️ YoY in terms of average price. (July was ⬇️ in 416 Detached, June was ⬇️ in 416 & 905 Detached) /2

And everything but 416 semis is ⬆️ in sales volume (but we're talking only 188 transactions so the smallest of all the types so more subject to big swings). /3

Can see 905 has made big improvement in the "strength" of the market (i.e. more of a seller's market) vs 2018. Many say Sales to New Listings Ratio is neutral at 40-60% and a seller's market above that (and buyer's below that). /4

416 didn't really drop so much after 2017 height. Can see 905 is still below where 416 was last year. But it sucking longer makes its comparables look stronger this year. (Also note I don't like "new listings", or the way TREB tracks it, which isn't very clean.) /5

So I prefer Months of Inventory (MOI). That uses Active Listings (snapshot of homes avail at end of month) divided by Sales for the month. GTA for August was 15,870/7,711 = 2.1 MOI. That's low. Especially for a summer month. Recent Augusts:
2019 - 2.1
2018 - 2.6
2017 - 2.6 /6

416 MOI for August:
2019 - 1.81
2018 - 1.97
2017 - 1.91
So you can tell 416 market has been more competitive than 905 in recent years, from showing lower MOI. /7

YTD sales are ⬆️11% YTD. You can see that's largely driven by 905 (again, coming off of low 2018 numbers). /8

The final holdout in House Price Index for YoY comps is York Region, but detached and townhouses are <1% off now so they're almost there. (Not up from 2017 peaks - which many are obsessed about although relatively small % of housing stock changed hands in those few months) /9

As usual, my monthly deeper dive with a full set of stats is forthcoming, and I'll post when it drops. Note the public can always see TREB's comprehensive Market Watch and other official TREB stats here: trebhome.com/index.php/mark…
#TREBstats /10