I shall be live tweeting on TIA 20-20 ideas summit for 21 Sep 2019 - hosted by @TIA_Investors
Last year's TIA Summit (2018) thread here :
https://twitter.com/jaganmsna/status/1053487571462803456?s=19
Stock idea : Alkyl Amines .
Speaker mentioning sales doubled , no debt taken but ROCE growing !
Speaker mentioning sales doubled , no debt taken but ROCE growing !
Promoters are thorough technocrats.
Amines are used in pharma and chemicals.
India competitors are Balaji Amines and RCF.
4 billion $ opportunity.
Lot of entry barriers per speaker.
Amines are used in pharma and chemicals.
India competitors are Balaji Amines and RCF.
4 billion $ opportunity.
Lot of entry barriers per speaker.
40% market share , India's 2 biggest manufacturer.
Key products : Alphatic Amines, derivatives and Speciality chemicals.
Key products : Alphatic Amines, derivatives and Speciality chemicals.
250 crores for expansion capex next 2 years.
They have environment clearance for capex (very important in this industry)
They have environment clearance for capex (very important in this industry)
Strong Bal Sheet, no equity dilution ever and ROCE in 20% range
Promoter holding 74+% and nil pledge . Operating in a tight margin band of 13-18%(EBIDTA)
Raw Material - Methanol, Ethanol , Acetic Acid etc.
Risk - Limited Industry, Capex by global players.
Thus concludes speaker @varinder_bansal
Raw Material - Methanol, Ethanol , Acetic Acid etc.
Risk - Limited Industry, Capex by global players.
Thus concludes speaker @varinder_bansal
Remark - @shyamsek(past president TIA) says we get angry when markets are bad, it must be other way around 😊
Next speaker @niteen_india . 20 years experienced investor
His stock Idea is Hikal.
Btw the first speaker was Raunak Onkar and his stock idea was ITC. Missed to tweet on same.
Back to @niteen_india . He is co founder of @CapitalAurum
Hikal - Does RnD, manufacturing and marketing of fine chemicals for pharma and agrichem industry .
CMP 154, BV 63 and PE 16, MCap 1900 cr around EV 2500 cr around
Profit from 40 cr to 100+ cr 2016 to 2019. Never missed a dividend.
CMP 154, BV 63 and PE 16, MCap 1900 cr around EV 2500 cr around
Profit from 40 cr to 100+ cr 2016 to 2019. Never missed a dividend.
For companies like Hikal compliance with regulatory bodies most important.
Speaker says - they did great on all USFDA inspections (5/5 cleared in 15 years)
Speaker says - they did great on all USFDA inspections (5/5 cleared in 15 years)
Kalyani group company - Kalyani Investment Co and BF Investment own 31 and 2%. Nil promoter pledge .
PAT from 37 Crore in 2005 to 103 cr in 2018. No equity dilution.
Investment Thesis - Offers value. Stock down but business doing well. 350 cr Capex on going. Will grow 15+% this year. Chinese supply distribution to help.
Risks - High working capital intensity.
Investment Thesis - Offers value. Stock down but business doing well. 350 cr Capex on going. Will grow 15+% this year. Chinese supply distribution to help.
Risks - High working capital intensity.
70% revenues are from exports .
Thus concludes the speaker .
Thus concludes the speaker .
Next speaker - Diganth Haria from Antique Research.
His stock idea - Muthoot Finance - India's Largest Gold Loan Company.
Test for finance company - Must survive 3 cycles of 3 types - Asset cycle, regulatory cycle and regulatory cycle.
Muthoot survived all .
They survived the Gold price correction /fall of 2012-2014
Now we have rising gold prices which is good for Muthoot.
Muthoot survived all .
They survived the Gold price correction /fall of 2012-2014
Now we have rising gold prices which is good for Muthoot.
Some common myths on Gold Loan business :
1. It is a distress loan.
Reality is Gold loan - business purpose is 70-80% , distress some 20-30% only .
2. Interest rates high in gold loan.
Reality - Gold loan is a Poor Man's credit card so rates need to be high.
1. It is a distress loan.
Reality is Gold loan - business purpose is 70-80% , distress some 20-30% only .
2. Interest rates high in gold loan.
Reality - Gold loan is a Poor Man's credit card so rates need to be high.
Interesting point : Breakeven int rates are : Banks 11%, NBFC 16% and Money lender 25%
Myth - High NPA leads to losses
Reality not the case
My view - Since loan value is only some 50-60% of gold prices risk NPA risk is low.
Myth 4 - Banks can enter this business.
Myth - High NPA leads to losses
Reality not the case
My view - Since loan value is only some 50-60% of gold prices risk NPA risk is low.
Myth 4 - Banks can enter this business.
Digant Says - Banks look at this biz only as another part business, can't compete much with specialist Muthoot/Manappuram .
Auction/fraud risk is main in Banks .
Muthoot Fin - 34000 cr gold loan book vs 5000 cr of HDFCBank.
Only 700 out of their 5000 branches offer this !
Auction/fraud risk is main in Banks .
Muthoot Fin - 34000 cr gold loan book vs 5000 cr of HDFCBank.
Only 700 out of their 5000 branches offer this !
TIL - Muthoot has 4500 branches.
Operates on 3x debt to equity
Tier 1 capital is 24% vs 12% by regulator .
Most cost efficient player !
Quite interesting !
Operates on 3x debt to equity
Tier 1 capital is 24% vs 12% by regulator .
Most cost efficient player !
Quite interesting !
No longer a South India only Biz. Majority of biz is now outside of South .
Marketing by Icons like Amitabh /Dhoni et al have helped .
Marketing by Icons like Amitabh /Dhoni et al have helped .
They are also trying to diversify outside Gold Loan biz.
Risk - 20% gold price can hurt them..
Thus concludes the speaker.
Risk - 20% gold price can hurt them..
Thus concludes the speaker.
Next Speaker - Jigar Shah - Fund Manager + Co Promoter in Banyan Tree Advisors.
Jigar Shah strategy - Growth at Reasonable Price .
His stock is : Akzo Nobel.
World's second largest and India's fourth largest Paint Company.
7800 cr MCap, Nil Debt .
Their brand is Dulux.
211 cr MCap, 2% dividend yield .
Focus now on premium segment.
Parent owns 75%.
His stock is : Akzo Nobel.
World's second largest and India's fourth largest Paint Company.
7800 cr MCap, Nil Debt .
Their brand is Dulux.
211 cr MCap, 2% dividend yield .
Focus now on premium segment.
Parent owns 75%.
Market share in India .
Asian Paints 55%
Nerolac 17%
Berger 15%
Akzo Nobel 10%
55000 Crore Paint biz market in India.
80% decorative paint , 20% industrial
Global it is 50-50 !!
Asian Paints 55%
Nerolac 17%
Berger 15%
Akzo Nobel 10%
55000 Crore Paint biz market in India.
80% decorative paint , 20% industrial
Global it is 50-50 !!
For Azko Nobel decorative to Industrial is 65:35
Mentions about recent management changes. Will it be positive for the business here ?
Mentions about recent management changes. Will it be positive for the business here ?
Observation - The speaker was showing comparison of 4 big India paint biz players. One cannot but wonder the kind of Dominance Big Daddy Asian Paints has on this business !!
Valuation : Says is cheaper than peer paint cos and justifies valuation based on its margin being 10+ %.
Thus concludes the speaker.
Thus concludes the speaker.
After the Tea break - Now speaker is G Maran.
GMaran was the speaker in Last TIA Summit and his stock idea last year was a super star performer - 2x in a year !!
👍👍
GMaran was the speaker in Last TIA Summit and his stock idea last year was a super star performer - 2x in a year !!
👍👍
Introduces himself - MSE broker in 1991.
Speaks about the current GDP and average income . The long runway for growth that exists across multiple consumption products.
Consumption is not Colgate and Levers .
Like Colgate -53% market share is gr8 but product penetration is already 94% . (Good point).
Likewise Footwear!
Consumption is not Colgate and Levers .
Like Colgate -53% market share is gr8 but product penetration is already 94% . (Good point).
Likewise Footwear!
Need to check on those consumption categories which can grow 2-4x the GDP growth (meaning where penetration is low).
Like plywood .
Like plywood .
Greenply - 90 cr MCap in 2009 vs 5000 cr in 2019( that is after spinoff of Greenlanm). 60 bagger !
70% population below 34.
In consumption products will take time to scale in Tier 2 cities.
Stock idea is : Greenply Industries.
3000+ outlets to distribute.
Has early mover advantage.
Thus he concludes !!
In consumption products will take time to scale in Tier 2 cities.
Stock idea is : Greenply Industries.
3000+ outlets to distribute.
Has early mover advantage.
Thus he concludes !!
Next speaker - Rishi Maheswari of AKSA capital.
Speaks of themes - One is Overseas Indians. 4 Crore of them in world. They spend a lot.
(Is he hinting at Tasty Bites stock)?
Most NRIs in Mid East, North America, UK !!
(Is he hinting at Tasty Bites stock)?
Most NRIs in Mid East, North America, UK !!
Second theme - Time and Health as a theme.
Unadulterated food but packaged food.
Third Theme - Vegetarian Food
Mentions about Beyond Meat IPO success.
TIL - 10000 Indian Restaurants in US.
Unadulterated food but packaged food.
Third Theme - Vegetarian Food
Mentions about Beyond Meat IPO success.
TIL - 10000 Indian Restaurants in US.
Ok it was not Tasty Bytes but ADF foods.
Stock discussed : ADF foods.
230 cr revenues. Mostly from US and UK and Mid East.
Principle products : Pickles, Sauces, Frozen Vada Pavar etc.
Started as a dry Fruits company expanded into frozen and packed foods.
2 plants in India
Stock discussed : ADF foods.
230 cr revenues. Mostly from US and UK and Mid East.
Principle products : Pickles, Sauces, Frozen Vada Pavar etc.
Started as a dry Fruits company expanded into frozen and packed foods.
2 plants in India
Competition from : Tasty Bytes, Kitchen of India (ITC brand)
Numbers - 29% 3 year CAGR.
PAT margin now in double digits
40 days of receivables and 70 days Working capital cycle.
ROE has doubled from 7% to 14% last 3 years (still low)
45 cr dispersed as dividend/buyback in 3 yrs
Numbers - 29% 3 year CAGR.
PAT margin now in double digits
40 days of receivables and 70 days Working capital cycle.
ROE has doubled from 7% to 14% last 3 years (still low)
45 cr dispersed as dividend/buyback in 3 yrs
MCap 500 cr ish, 22 PE seems okish !!
My Observation - Stock price stagnated from 2017.
Opportunity - Some biggie may acquire at premium.
Thus speaker concludes.
My Observation - Stock price stagnated from 2017.
Opportunity - Some biggie may acquire at premium.
Thus speaker concludes.
Next Speaker - Saurav Basrar - Author of MasterClass with Super Investors book.
His Investment idea is PolyCab India
+Ve : Industry leader, good capital allocator, becoming B2C biz.
Risk : Recent IPO, aggressively priced.
+Ve : Industry leader, good capital allocator, becoming B2C biz.
Risk : Recent IPO, aggressively priced.
Discusses company history - Cables biz to FMEG (Fast Moving Electric Goods)
Cables biz growing slowly
Vs rapid growth in FMEG business.
Wire and Cable biz grows at 11% CAGR historically .
Comparison with peers - Havells, Finolex cables done .
Cables biz growing slowly
Vs rapid growth in FMEG business.
Wire and Cable biz grows at 11% CAGR historically .
Comparison with peers - Havells, Finolex cables done .
No promoter pledge .
Esop dilution there but small.
Low leverage .
No RPTs .
Esop dilution there but small.
Low leverage .
No RPTs .
Finolex Cables is gold standard wrt working capital allocation in this industry .
Suggests PE can be in 12-20 range.
Currently Cable Is 52 % vs 48% wire biz.
To watch : Growth, Working capital change etc .
Thus concludes the speech.
Currently Cable Is 52 % vs 48% wire biz.
To watch : Growth, Working capital change etc .
Thus concludes the speech.
Next speaker is @aveekmitra . Founder of Aveksat Financial advisory .
LSPS Investing - Low Stress Per Share Investing !
His stock pick : TCI Express
Global mkt for express cargo: US 60 billion $, UK 15 billon $ , India 3 billion $
Global express cargo CAGR 4% in 12 years . But China is higher.
India mkt is 20K cr domestic and 5KCr Export.
His stock pick : TCI Express
Global mkt for express cargo: US 60 billion $, UK 15 billon $ , India 3 billion $
Global express cargo CAGR 4% in 12 years . But China is higher.
India mkt is 20K cr domestic and 5KCr Export.
Key market - Auto, electronics, pharma ...
TCI Exp is mostly B2B, focus on SMEs.
Doesn't focus on FCart, Amazon biz
B2B express logistics had Brand salience
B2C doesn't
C2C too small + slowing (Blue Dart here. So BDart has underperformed ?)
Slowing as most doc sent online ?
TCI Exp is mostly B2B, focus on SMEs.
Doesn't focus on FCart, Amazon biz
B2B express logistics had Brand salience
B2C doesn't
C2C too small + slowing (Blue Dart here. So BDart has underperformed ?)
Slowing as most doc sent online ?
Industry is 10% organised
But Express Logistics is 80% organized .
TCI has huge memory (brand recall) + long time client association.
Competitors : Gati , TVS Logistics, Mahindra Logistics etc.
TCI is highest in terms of ROI (31%). Asset Light model .
But Express Logistics is 80% organized .
TCI has huge memory (brand recall) + long time client association.
Competitors : Gati , TVS Logistics, Mahindra Logistics etc.
TCI is highest in terms of ROI (31%). Asset Light model .
Good customer /client list + access to 2 lakh SMEs/MSMEs.
Handle upto 50 kg cargo .
400 cr capex planned mainly sorting centres .
Working capital light, hard to replicate..
Says it's not cheap stock . 30 PE , stock price history short .
Concludes the discussion.
Handle upto 50 kg cargo .
400 cr capex planned mainly sorting centres .
Working capital light, hard to replicate..
Says it's not cheap stock . 30 PE , stock price history short .
Concludes the discussion.
Next speaker is Chetan Phalke - CIO of Alpha Invesco research.
@alphainvesco is his Twitter handle .
@alphainvesco is his Twitter handle .
Talks about biz model in QSR space . Assembly line approach in QSR . States how it is more scalable + profitable if Delivery based.
Stock idea - Speciality Restaurants.
IPO in 2012. Stock hasn't gone anywhere.
104 restaurants . Mainland China, Sigree, Oh Kolkatta chains
Stock idea - Speciality Restaurants.
IPO in 2012. Stock hasn't gone anywhere.
104 restaurants . Mainland China, Sigree, Oh Kolkatta chains
Mcap - 330 Crore.
Shareholder value destruction post IPO.
Because pre IPO too many restaurants opened .
Last 4 years - Mainland China revenues have dropped.
Revenue from liquor/Zomato/Uber eats has grown .
Lot of capex incurred to do this transition.
Debt Free Co. 70 cr on books.
Shareholder value destruction post IPO.
Because pre IPO too many restaurants opened .
Last 4 years - Mainland China revenues have dropped.
Revenue from liquor/Zomato/Uber eats has grown .
Lot of capex incurred to do this transition.
Debt Free Co. 70 cr on books.
Delivery share 8% in 2018 to 12-13% now n growing. Last few years cost restructuring etc. That's the thesis for betting on this stock .
40-45% restaurants don't even survive first 3 years .
Thus he concludes the discussion.
Next speaker will be after lunch .
40-45% restaurants don't even survive first 3 years .
Thus he concludes the discussion.
Next speaker will be after lunch .
Next Speaker Arunagiri Nallasivam
Story of a simple commodity business(synthetic leather) transformed into a high quality business over 3 decade period
Name not revealed . (Mayur Uniquoter?)
Name not revealed . (Mayur Uniquoter?)
Not yet revealing the name but speaks about business .
Simple business, (synthetic leather)
Long operating history , operating efficiency etc.
From FY12 to 19 low margin Footwear has fallen and other segments have grown.
23% EBIDTA in a commodity ish business is good.
Simple business, (synthetic leather)
Long operating history , operating efficiency etc.
From FY12 to 19 low margin Footwear has fallen and other segments have grown.
23% EBIDTA in a commodity ish business is good.
Global biz size is 28 billion $.
Margin superior to all competition . Bad debt to debtors ratio has fallen.
Cash to Net worth growing
FCF to PAT > 45%
Likewise OCF to PAT ratio pretty good.
Management Competence is key :
Capacity increased 48% last 5 years
Margin superior to all competition . Bad debt to debtors ratio has fallen.
Cash to Net worth growing
FCF to PAT > 45%
Likewise OCF to PAT ratio pretty good.
Management Competence is key :
Capacity increased 48% last 5 years
61% promoter stake. Very little RPT(Related Party Transactions).
Future Trigger - Footwear moving to organized . PU capacity ramp up next few years. Merc and BMW as customers (Mayur.....??)
Future Trigger - Footwear moving to organized . PU capacity ramp up next few years. Merc and BMW as customers (Mayur.....??)
Headwinds - Auto distress, PU commissioning delay. Keyman risk , depending on Crude oil derivative.
And yes - Stock name is : Mayur Uniquoters.
Speaker is from Trustline Holdings.
Speaker concludes saying fair price is 400 but CMP of 212.
And yes - Stock name is : Mayur Uniquoters.
Speaker is from Trustline Holdings.
Speaker concludes saying fair price is 400 but CMP of 212.
Next speaker - Abhishek Basumallik, founder Intelsense Capital.
His stock Idea : IPCA Labs.
17 manufacturing units ; Leading API exporter. Supply API to big global Pharma MNCs
17 manufacturing units ; Leading API exporter. Supply API to big global Pharma MNCs
Great domestic growth last 5 years. Export growth bit fallen but reversing in US per speaker.
Recent Update : Awaiting re inspection from US FDA for Pithampur + Ratlam facilities.
Small acquisitions : Ramdev Chemicals, Bayshore Pharma LLC.
Recent Update : Awaiting re inspection from US FDA for Pithampur + Ratlam facilities.
Small acquisitions : Ramdev Chemicals, Bayshore Pharma LLC.
2014 to 2019 flat revenue, profits fell n recovered to same level. (Kind of lost 5 years )
My view : Stock price reflects same 2014 to 19 same level
Speaker points recent tax change by @nsitharaman won't impact as they pay lower tax 😊
My view : Stock price reflects same 2014 to 19 same level
Speaker points recent tax change by @nsitharaman won't impact as they pay lower tax 😊
Summarises says : Investing thesis is on reasonable valuation, strong domestic growth, FDA clearance can be a additional booster. Kind of says even w o that Biz will do well on domestic side.
Concludes the presentation.
Concludes the presentation.
Next speaker Sahil Jain of Moneycurves.
His theme- piped water connection for every house
50-60% of expense for water supply is on pipelines
3 types
SAW/MS pipes - Water transport (inter city?)
DI Pipe - Within a city .
PVC - End user
Goes to describe Manufacturing of DI pipe.
His theme- piped water connection for every house
50-60% of expense for water supply is on pipelines
3 types
SAW/MS pipes - Water transport (inter city?)
DI Pipe - Within a city .
PVC - End user
Goes to describe Manufacturing of DI pipe.
DI pipe critical for a intra city distribution despite cost. Y ?
Leakage not there, can bear load. Can handle pressure n surge . 80-100 yr life .
Stock idea : Sri Kaalahasthi pipes.
Owned by Electrosteel pipes
3 ltpa capacity. 350 acre facility in that 200 acre unused.
Leakage not there, can bear load. Can handle pressure n surge . 80-100 yr life .
Stock idea : Sri Kaalahasthi pipes.
Owned by Electrosteel pipes
3 ltpa capacity. 350 acre facility in that 200 acre unused.
End to End integrated facility. Own everything - Cement to rail siding to water treatment plant to furnace.
Industry capacity 25 lakh tonnes SKP Is 3 l tonnes.
Tata Metalliks competitor.
SKP more backward integrated..
Competition - Tata Metalliks, Jindal Saw and many weak players
Industry capacity 25 lakh tonnes SKP Is 3 l tonnes.
Tata Metalliks competitor.
SKP more backward integrated..
Competition - Tata Metalliks, Jindal Saw and many weak players
Coming coal key input.
End customer is Guvt but EPC players are direct customers.
ROE has fallen last one year due to coming coal price rise(Risk)
Insider buying seen.
PE 6, 870 cr MCap, 150 cr profit, 15% of PAT is dividend as a policy.
3 % div yield. Concludes the presentation.
End customer is Guvt but EPC players are direct customers.
ROE has fallen last one year due to coming coal price rise(Risk)
Insider buying seen.
PE 6, 870 cr MCap, 150 cr profit, 15% of PAT is dividend as a policy.
3 % div yield. Concludes the presentation.
Next Speaker is Vidya Bala , Co Founder Redwood Research. Written in @businessline .
Her idea is an Infrastructure stock.
(Quite a surprise)
Stock name is : Adani Ports
High beta stock but good wealth creator.
77000 cr MCap.60+% promoter stake, very high capex .
Her idea is an Infrastructure stock.
(Quite a surprise)
Stock name is : Adani Ports
High beta stock but good wealth creator.
77000 cr MCap.60+% promoter stake, very high capex .
25% of India's port capacity..their Mundra asset holds 70% of North India bound container cargo !!!
Ports r high margin business if one is efficient. Well diversified across commodities .
10 ports across India.
Port + SEZ+ Logistics . High OPM.
5 year 18% revenue + profit CAGR
Ports r high margin business if one is efficient. Well diversified across commodities .
10 ports across India.
Port + SEZ+ Logistics . High OPM.
5 year 18% revenue + profit CAGR
Point - Has port assets in all states except Karnataka and West Bengal .
Ports - less cyclical Infrastructure sector .
Advantage : Shorter distance to Delhi (700 km less) than JNPT. 17-18 m draft vs 15 for JNPT.
Able to buy port assets and turn around. Eg Dhamra, Kattupalli
Ports - less cyclical Infrastructure sector .
Advantage : Shorter distance to Delhi (700 km less) than JNPT. 17-18 m draft vs 15 for JNPT.
Able to buy port assets and turn around. Eg Dhamra, Kattupalli
Capex 17000 cr in 5 years . Plan to expand from 395 MT to 570 MT.
Debt is 3x EBIDTA. Debt maturity has been successfully extended .
Forward PE 18.
ROE better than Pipavav.
Concludes the session.
Debt is 3x EBIDTA. Debt maturity has been successfully extended .
Forward PE 18.
ROE better than Pipavav.
Concludes the session.
Next Speaker Shagun Jain.
Corporate Banker.
His stock Idea - Galaxy Surfactants
It is a proxy to consumer staples.
2/3 revenue from outside India. Its Like owning a basket of consumer staples.
Growing faster than industry . Operating margin 13%
33 cr profit in 2012 now 190 cr.
Corporate Banker.
His stock Idea - Galaxy Surfactants
It is a proxy to consumer staples.
2/3 revenue from outside India. Its Like owning a basket of consumer staples.
Growing faster than industry . Operating margin 13%
33 cr profit in 2012 now 190 cr.
Debt equity ratio from 1.79 in 2012 to 0.34 in 2019.
400 cr FCF generated last 5 years .
Speaker narrates about other positives.
One of them is : No Criminal proceeding against promoters.
The times we live in !!
🤔
400 cr FCF generated last 5 years .
Speaker narrates about other positives.
One of them is : No Criminal proceeding against promoters.
The times we live in !!
🤔
Products they do kind of are input to staple FMCG products - Soaps to Shampoos .
Risks - Currency and Raw materials. If not pass thru contract then risk of cost escalation.
75% export to US + EU.
Concludes the presentation.
Risks - Currency and Raw materials. If not pass thru contract then risk of cost escalation.
75% export to US + EU.
Concludes the presentation.
Next speaker - Madhu Malik , independent equity analyst. Her stock idea is SreeLeathers.
Explains how she shortlisted this stock
Restricted to stocks with 500 cr. ( To check on growth cos)
Elaborates on process filters. Revenue, Debt equity ratio, zero pledge etc
Explains how she shortlisted this stock
Restricted to stocks with 500 cr. ( To check on growth cos)
Elaborates on process filters. Revenue, Debt equity ratio, zero pledge etc
Positives - strong Bal Sheet, good cost control , not much retail presence, no Corp governance issues.
CAGR 20% but consistency . +Ve FCF most years. Near zero debt . No governance issues .
Margins better than peers
(Khadim seems to have lowest margins..y ?) Forward PE 12.5 .
CAGR 20% but consistency . +Ve FCF most years. Near zero debt . No governance issues .
Margins better than peers
(Khadim seems to have lowest margins..y ?) Forward PE 12.5 .
Drivers for overall footwear market - Young population, preference for branded products . They r well positioned in online space . Unlike physical retail where they are small in presence.
Concludes the presentation.
Concludes the presentation.
Next speaker is @nbalajiv CEO of Crest Wealth .
Stock idea of his is : Ultramarine And Pigments (Chennai based) . 550 crore MCap, 480 cr EV , zero debt co part of Thirumalai group.
Pigments and Surfactants are their products .
CAGR in double digits .
Describes pigments. 22 billion $ market . Is input to paints, inks, plastic .
Pigments and Surfactants are their products .
CAGR in double digits .
Describes pigments. 22 billion $ market . Is input to paints, inks, plastic .
Describes Surfactant biz, will undergo expansion shortly.
Financial - 10 yr, 3x top line and 5x growth in bottom line.
Crossholdin in group company Thirumalai Chemicals.
Generated Cash flow of 230 crores cash flow in last 10 yrs , in that 140 cr given as dividend.
Financial - 10 yr, 3x top line and 5x growth in bottom line.
Crossholdin in group company Thirumalai Chemicals.
Generated Cash flow of 230 crores cash flow in last 10 yrs , in that 140 cr given as dividend.
Stock PE trailing single digit, 30 ROIC, 10+% CAGR and corrected 50% from all time high..simple company . Is cheapest among peers including Galaxy Surfactants.
Will see more topline growth from 2020 due to capex completion. Risk - Crude Oil is input
Concludes the presentation.
Will see more topline growth from 2020 due to capex completion. Risk - Crude Oil is input
Concludes the presentation.
Next speaker is @Dinesh_Sairam
From Crisil . His stock idea is Ion Exchange India .
Blogs at : valuationinmotion.blogspot.com
From Crisil . His stock idea is Ion Exchange India .
Blogs at : valuationinmotion.blogspot.com
Discusses about shortage of freshwater globally . And water shortage in India.
Driver is likely water investment in Nal Se Jal.
Water Processing chain - ion exchange serves entire chain.
Co established in 1964. Focus on B2B not B2G. Mostly take small projects.
Driver is likely water investment in Nal Se Jal.
Water Processing chain - ion exchange serves entire chain.
Co established in 1964. Focus on B2B not B2G. Mostly take small projects.
Have Engineering -58 %, Chemicals 32% and Consumer division 10% .
Out of 20 desal plants in India,12 built by Ion Exchange !
Interesting - RailNeer is supplied by Ion Exchange.
Comp with Va Tech Vabag. IEIL scores better.
On ROIC scores better than Thermax (competitor)
Out of 20 desal plants in India,12 built by Ion Exchange !
Interesting - RailNeer is supplied by Ion Exchange.
Comp with Va Tech Vabag. IEIL scores better.
On ROIC scores better than Thermax (competitor)
6000 cr bid pipeline in engg division.
Has invested in RnD facility in Hyderabad.
Consumer division - RailNeer.
DCF valuation as probablity curve. Fair value around 870.
Risks -. Currency, legal.
Concludes saying good buy at or below CMP.
Has invested in RnD facility in Hyderabad.
Consumer division - RailNeer.
DCF valuation as probablity curve. Fair value around 870.
Risks -. Currency, legal.
Concludes saying good buy at or below CMP.
Next speaker - Bhavna Acharya, Co Founder Redwood Research .
VMart Retail is her stock idea.
VMart Retail is her stock idea.
Discusses about drivers in retail industry.
Key is converting footfalls to revenues
Retail is low margin..So efficiency matters.
Geography - Focussed on North India .
Store mix across tier 1/2/3 towns .
+ Not mindlessly expanding but controlled expansion. 94% apparel sales rev.
Key is converting footfalls to revenues
Retail is low margin..So efficiency matters.
Geography - Focussed on North India .
Store mix across tier 1/2/3 towns .
+ Not mindlessly expanding but controlled expansion. 94% apparel sales rev.
Sales price average is going up over years.
5 year revenue and profit CAGR 20+ %
5 year revenue and profit CAGR 20+ %
Valuation - PE high due to depressed earnings..MCap to sales and EV to Sales r better metrics to judge .Stock 40% down from top.
Concludes presentation.
Concludes presentation.
Next (Last speaker of day ) is yet to come so another speaker VS Venkatesan to present his thought Multibaggers - One parameter is low equity capital.
(Something that may not be always right IMO)
Then Promoter holding high
High reserve& surplus. Zero debt inelastic demand .
(Something that may not be always right IMO)
Then Promoter holding high
High reserve& surplus. Zero debt inelastic demand .
Shares his technical views as well.
Last Speaker Yogesh Sundaram. Insolvency professional, registered valuer. Director Srinidhi Investment Advisors..
Suggests a stock in boring old sunset (so-called) industry
Seshasayyee Paper Mills.
100% revenue from writing and print paper.
Revenues 1285 cr, Export 200 cr.
Suggests a stock in boring old sunset (so-called) industry
Seshasayyee Paper Mills.
100% revenue from writing and print paper.
Revenues 1285 cr, Export 200 cr.
Stock price 200+. Roce 30%. PE 6.
Globally EV to EBIDTA of Paper is 4x.
Mentions about public shareholding as well.
CAGR for paper industry last 10 years is 6+% . Stable LT outlook.
Segment growth will vary.
800 paper mills in India. Lots are insolvent ,will be acquired .
Globally EV to EBIDTA of Paper is 4x.
Mentions about public shareholding as well.
CAGR for paper industry last 10 years is 6+% . Stable LT outlook.
Segment growth will vary.
800 paper mills in India. Lots are insolvent ,will be acquired .
Last capex and expansion was happening 10 years back (2009-11).
A decade gone ,now time for interest to return ? Can be a trigger.
Sesh Paper fortunes tied to wood pulp prices, water/monsoon situation .
Shares financial performance and concludes .
A decade gone ,now time for interest to return ? Can be a trigger.
Sesh Paper fortunes tied to wood pulp prices, water/monsoon situation .
Shares financial performance and concludes .
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