First speaker : G Maran . 25 years of investment experience. From Unify capital.
Observes that markets and economy are not necessarily correlated.
His business idea is : DCM Shriram Ltd
It is in multiple unrelated Biz : Sugar, Chemicals, even Cement.
Digresses into an interesting stat : FII own 20% of India's 2.7 trillion $ Mcap.
In that, 25% is in RIL , TCS, HDFC twins
And 50% in remaining 46 Nifty stocks .
Other words - FIIs aren't big outside Index ...
Delta improvement (positive surprises) expected in Sugar/Ethanol biz of DCM Sriram..
Gives an interesting perspective: FY 2020-21- India IT industry grew 10%+ , Tourism/Travel et al degrew 35% due 2 lockdown. Latter has greater share in GDP than former.
3 IT stocks in index vs no Tourism/Travel stock .
So, GDP can slump but market can go up !
Concludes his speech
Next speaker is Sanjeev Pandya .
His stock idea is GE Shipping
Starts with statistic : 20% of all money in existence has been printed last year.
Strongly bullish on Commodities and thus Shipping .
There is a likely crunch of Ships globally in coming years.
Shipping went through a relentless downcycle since 2008.
70% global shipping cos are under water.
Bankruptcy across Shipbuilders as well.
Demand however growing at secular 2-3%
10% of global fleet is pre 2003.
Shipbuilding deliveries peaked in 2008, down big way since.
Shipping Asset prices at multi year lows.
Fleet growth at lows.
Second Hand prices at 20 year lows.
GE Shipping - Best company in worst business.
Best profitability track record. Is an excellent trader of ships.
Comfortable cash reserves. Has a subsidiary (offshore biz).If oil prices shoot up, value of this biz may soar.
Has 1500 cr debt, just 1 yr EBIDTA.
Compares it with a coiled spring.
Summarizes saying it is difficult to add fresh shipping capacity.
Stock trades at 40% discount.
Next speaker is Ravi Dharamshi.
His stock idea is Prince Pipes.
Plastic pipe manufacturer.
Investment thesis :
RE on cusp of revival.
In that, home improvement and in that plastic pipes is the best way to play.
Home loan rates at all time low.
Observes that in home improvement category, plastic pipes is fastest growing biz segment.
75% of household don't have piped drinking water.
GST and NBFC crisis leading to consolidation of the industry.
Few players losing mkt share (Jain etc), few gaining. Prince one of them.
Gives details of Corp Guv issues in the company and their being resolved.
Concludes his speech.
Next speaker is @vardhiniritesh from Hindu Business Line.
She discusses her selection criteria for stock and looks at a small cap with reasonably good Financials.
Her stock idea : Fiem Industries.
It is 800 cr Mcap biz, into plastic parts, lighting and rear view mirror systems .
LED Lamps, Rear view mirrors are main part of revenues. Client Mix mainly Auto OEMs.
Play on 2W Demand which is highly cyclical.
Company adding clients and new product lines (Canister etc).
Deleveraging and low Capex wrt Fiem.
ATH 1000 Rs in 2016 vs 600 now .
70% utilization.
Debt Equity 0.22
Reasonably cheap.
PE 17 vs 45 for Suprajit Industries.
Concludes the speech.
Next speaker is Prakash Diwan.
Describes his investment philosophy.
Stock idea: Thomas Cook
Core biz : travel biz.
They have outstanding travel brands. Their investments esp digital are good.
Mentions, among others, about "Revenge Travel " and investment theme based on this .
Enuf cash on BS to make inorganic growth acquisitions
Concludes the speech.
Next speaker: Gaurav Sud , Managing Partner, Kanav Capital.He describes his investment philosophy.
His idea : Praj Industries.
Details the industry (industrial bio technology )
Ethanol blending of petrol started in 2003. 5% first proposed
Right now 6.7% achieved.
Target is 20%.
Currently India produces 400 cr Ethanol for 6% blending.
2.5x capacity expansion needed for 20%
Praj is a bet on this expansion.
40% promoter holding.
8% of global Ethanol capacity with Praj into other biz lines as well - Engineering etc.
Details on their RnD investments.
2G ethanol - produced from non food crops, agri waste. Praj to benefit as OMCs asked to invest big.
40000 cr investment lined up to produce Ethanol.
Revenues may double in next 3 years.
Commercial viability of 2G Ethanol is a risk.
Concludes the speech.
Next speaker is @balajispice .
Emphasizes on invest philosophy of his - strong leadership, conservative capital structure.
Shares his framework for identification of investing idea.
S curve adoption- Demat Accounts, ECommerce etc.
His stock idea is Radico Khaitan
IMFL company.
Explains structure of India liquor industry and how its highly regulated at state level.
They (Radico) has built organic brands.
Consistent debt reduction.
Exiting low margin products.
Completes his speech mentioning key risk- State Regulation.
Next speaker is @niteen_india
He is co founder of Aurum capital .
His stock idea is SChand & Co
(Bold Contra idea)
80 year old business. 2400 author's, 90TPD publishing capacity.
Highly cyclical biz .
Max biz in JFM qtr. Receivable cycle is 6/9 months.
IPO at 670 Rs in 2017, slumped to 35 Rs in March 2020, now Rs 99.
Reason was large acquisitions 2012-16 plus digital investments led to cash flow issues etc.
Staff rationalized. Warehouses consolidated.
Sales : 50 million Copies now vs 35 million at IPO.
Other triggers:
Ed Tech, NEP, steps to improve cash flows etc.
Promoter has slightly upped stake in company .
Risks: Guvt policy changes, Cyclical cash flows etc.
Concludes his speech.
Next speaker : Ajay Bagga.
Starts with usual disclaimers.
4% of listed companies create 100% of net wealth, ex US.
"High Priced Assets create low returns "
"You can't eat the cake and eat it too" (Good one if one reads btw lines )
His stock idea: Shivalik Rasayan"
Sound capital allocator, focused on Oncology segment.
Import Substitution/PL1 play.
They partner with Mission Pharma (MNC)
Promoter holding stable.
PE in line with sector. 95x bagger in 7 years. 23x in 5 yrs .
Negligible debt. -ve working capital
Listed competition: Rallis, UPL, BASF, Dhanuka, PI industries.
Concludes the speech.
Next speaker: Aditya Khemka.
His views:
"There is inefficiency in markets and you can make use of it to make superior returns "
"Like to buy great businesses at fair value"
"Pharma cos are conglomerates "
Pharma cos Have a 1. India branded biz - High FCF biz, high ROE biz
2. US Biz.- Cheap generic. Race to bottom market.
High debt, high depreciation, low or no ROE biz 3. Medium ROE biz.
His stock idea is IPCA labs.Breaks biz as 1 and 2.
1 doing as well as FMCG biz, 2 as commodity biz.
Says dont focus on absolute valuations , but on multiples.
Explains ROE cycle. Now on ROE will improve as investment phase is done.
Steel - Demand Supplies both change.
Generic- Only supply changes. Demand always there.
US Generics is now at cyclical upturn. India is lowest cost producer here.
Details on API export opportunities.
BSE Healthcare index beats BSE sensex by 57% in last 17 years.
Concludes the speech.
Post Lunch Session now.
Speaker is Nitin Rao of @alphaideas
He begins with Disclaimers.
His investment is ; Think Real Estate
Real Estate is largest asset class on planet. 228 Trillion $ liquidity.
Why ?
Liquidity, low home loan rates.
US home prices rising fastest on record
Consolidation - In TN/Chennai 78% builders have vanished.
Epic consolidation of RE during 2012-19 due to RERA, GST, Demo, NBFC crisis.
NSE reality index at 9 yr high. Yet,
2008 Jan Reality index was 4x present legend.
Bet on leader, best promoter , cheap valuation.
Embassy REIT owns 3cr sqft space, distributed 1100 cr dividend so far
The investment idea is "IB Real Estate".
IBREL to merge with Embassy.
Post merger Gehlot goes out and Embassy gets 44% stake.
Post merger will be No 1 RE player.
Post merger mix is 53% commercial, 47% residential
Post merger Mcap 9500 cr Rs vs 38000 -75000 cr Rs of peers.
Risks : RE cycle false dawn, Merger delay
Mgmt says merger will be over next 6 months.
Concludes his speech.
Next speaker is @varadhar1
He describes his investment philosophy.
Says Tech sector looks hot/frothy (from investment POV)
His stock idea is Ganesh Benzo.
Owns 80+ Liquid Storage tanks.
Biz generates 70-80 cr FCF. Stable.
Mgmt using surplus land to build more storage tanks.
Started in Chemicals biz , got into liquid storage accidentally in 1993, now mainly in liquid storage biz
Storage tanks around JNPT is an advantage
Stock is valued for all downsides.
Optionality is a stalled demerger.
MnC taken stake and txed railroad biz .
Risks : Past history of BIFR, no history of dividends.
Lot of upside at CMP.
Debt reduction from 155 to 50 cr in 3 yrs.
Peer Aegis Logistics Mcap 10000 cr.
Concludes the speech.
Next speaker- Dhruvesh Sanghvi, co founder, Prospero Tree.
His topic is : Exploring opportunities in Real Estate.
US New Home sales 800K p.a
Vs 400K for India. China is 10 million new homes p.a
Opportunity size very huge in India.
RE unit sales has collapsed from 4L p.a in 2011-13 to 1.5L in 2019.
Discusses on factors such as Large players managing to grow in tough times.
Mentions 27 listed players among 10000+ builders in India.
Collective MCap < 200k Crore Mcap.
Names to comdude: oberoi, Godrej/Sobha.
Says that his thesis not about one specific investment idea but a basket. Says we may be at bottom of multi year RE downcycle.
Summarizes saying good Risk reward ratio for RE cos now.
Concludes the speech.
Next speaker is Shweta Daptardar.
Her investment idea is: SBI Cards.
Describes the opportunity size that will drive Credit card market.
20% CAGR in outstanding cards
15% CAGR in Transactions. 50 day free credit will be driver for CC as payment solution.
SBI Cards high valuation justified by high growth, low penetration..50% card owners are SBI customers.
300 million SBI customers but only 5 million of them are SBI credit card holders .
Proactive follow up on defaults GNPAs 2.4-2.5% pre Covid19.
Shares nos of RBI. 19% mkt share
Why SBI card ?.Credit cost in dbl digits will drop to 8% by FY23.
Moving to Tier 2/3 mkts.
50% Earnings from fees.
Concludes saying going fwd will be valued as HRHR play , with 50+ PE .
Next speaker is @deepakshenoy
His stock idea BSE Ltd.
Begins with Disclosures.
Main LOB : listing (bonds r big part!) , Market and Data.
BSE star - Online Platform for MFs.
Leader in bond mkt with share of 60%.
Calls Star MF as crown jewel in BSE.
Stake sale planned in same.
Why Deepak likes BSE ?
Stake in CDSL, ICCL,
Value from subsidiaries.
No plans to divest stake in ICCL.
Growth triggers include possible introduction of smart order routing.
Risk - Some investment in troubled IL&FS
2.8% dividend yield.
Concludes the speech.
Next speaker- @varinder_bansal
Cash on the cycle.
If u invested in IT sector in 2000, u made no returns in next 10-15 years.
Theme for 2020s - Import Substitution etc
Bullish on Manufacturing. 3x manufacturing value increase predicted by 2030.
Stock idea: Carborundum Universal
No equity dilution. Clean BS
Varinder calls it Infy of Manufacturing sector.
In upcycle ROCE went from 18 to 28% (2009-12)
Now at 19%
Zero Debt Co
Margins 20%.
Overall Financials look clean.
Why Carborundum?
It is a Material Science Technology Company.
Backwards integrated plus innovative. Focussed on Electro minerals.
Triggers : New Tech, Opportunities in Electromineral segment, Export opp and import Substitution
Recommends this as an idea for 4-5 years, not a trading idea.
Concludes the speech.
Next speaker: @bala_vidya Co Founder of @primeinvestorin
Her stock idea is CDSL.
Proxy of Craziness in equity investing.
BSE has 20% stake.
CDSL has now dominance in a duopoly thanks to rise of discount brokers.
Less cyclical than RTA (CAMS) or exchange or AMC biz.
CDSL has higher margins than NSDL.
Annuity income via Annual Issue charges (paid by Equity or Debt issuer)
KYC biz via subsidiary CDSL ventures is also lucrative.
Not cheap (PE 35)
Mgmt may ramp up dividends.
Unlisted cos asked to Demat equity , E Voting also r opportunities
Risk - Employee cost creeping up.
Speaker concludes pointing her call on Adani Ports in Sep 2019 TIA 2020 call given 98% upside.
CDSL may not give as much!!
Next speaker: Sunil Shah.
He says - PSUs , PSBs underperformed for so long.
One PSB privatisation can relate it all.
His stock idea- GRSE (Garden Reach Shipbuilders) - Defense PSU.
Debt Free Cash Rich Co, built 10P warships till date.
25000 Cr Rs order book.
Revenue of co last year < 2000 cr
Why GRSE ?
Current annual revenue will be the quarterly revenue by FY23.
Margins are fixed at 7.5%
Risk : OFS by Guvt.
Mcap of 2300 cr. Order book projects into PE of 3 in FY23.
Exit call needed at right point.
Concludes speech by mentioning that financialisation of savings is an important theme in coming years.
Next speaker Tushar Bohra.
His idea: IRCTC
Thesis:
IPO at 300, listed at 600, Now stock at 1900.
10 year portfolio stock.
Risk- Valuation, Removal of Convenience charge .
Ticketing + Catering + Water biz play.
Growth via : DFC capacity increase, analytics etc etc
Concludes saying : IRCTC is the only significantly profitable platform business in India .
Now the last speaker of day : @subashr232
He prefers large Cap steady compounders. His past TIA 2020 ideas : 2016 Tata Motors, 2018 : Colgate
His stock idea for 2021 is : ICICI Lombard.
LT bet.
Reason for choice: Just 0.9% of GDP is insurance in India
Long growth runway. Pvt players taken all mkt share from PSU GI players.
Combined ratio has improved from 108% in 2011 to 99% in 2020.
Investment book (float) is 24000 crore and 43% corporate bonds, 38% GSec, rest equities.
Investment book is good.
Loss ratio < 100% for all segments except Crop insurance.
Company grabs mkt share.
118% returns since listing.
Concludes the speech.
Tabular Summary of all investment ideas discussed here :
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Vedanta Delisting proposal - A thread.
Disc- Quoting some information out of what I remember, so please cross check . 1. Year 2002. Sterlite Industry, which was just a copper smelter , bidder successfully for Balco and then HZL but stock was very poorly valued.
2. It was not about Sterlite. Entire Commodity index at probably a two decade low, post 1997 Asian Crisis. But China growth theme was building and Sterlite Management rightly acquired Balco + HZL
3. Realising that Sterlite post HZL and Balco buys was dirt cheap, mgmt tried to delist. Got 87% shareholders to accept a low open offer price. But failed ,as LIC (among others refused to Tender)
A PE of huge size invested in an Indian stock (during bull run) and that made many small investors invest. The stock has now collapsed. Now where is the fault : PE fund or the small investor ? Think.
(Thread continues)
The Name is not relevant , be it OE fund or the stock. The PE fund is headquartered abroad and has 100 billion $ AUM. This investment would be not even 0.01 % of their AUM !
Now consider our LIC. AUM of over 400 billion USD and 70% of it in debt (to Guvts). Now they invest some 2 billion $ in IDBI bank to help owner (Guvt) do investors go and buy IDBI bank next day ? No, we condemn LIC !
Why not same for PE funds and their India bets ?
1. Very good to see Taleb point to the real merit of EVs : Not usual EVs are green, eco friendly bhajan (they are not) . But that EVs age slower. Due to less moving parts. That is indeed true.
2. Infact that is the one real diff between EVs and ICE. Not green, not carbon footprint etc. Makes sense.
The vehicle prices in mid 80s cannot be directly compared with today (2018) because many companies mentioned don't exist and many products are not like to like comparable to today. But we can do some quick inferences ! - 1/n
From the data it looks that a low end moped costed Rs 6000 ,a scooter Rs 12000 and Rs 16000 for 100 cc Motorcycle. A sedan (Maruti 800 deluxe) needed a Lakh rupees. All this in mid 80s - 2/n