"You can't change history - unless you're a historian." So said Mario Draghi yday in his final @ecb press conference. Except some (not him) have been attempting to re-write history recently, suggesting that the handling of the euro crisis was a triumph, not a disaster
For some, the fact that the eurozone made it through the crisis should be viewed as proof of the single currency's invincibility. It was tested and for all the scepticism, it survived. But this isn't right. The euro really did come dangerously close to collapse
I remember on the very day, at the very conference where Draghi pledged to do "whatever it takes" to save the €, being told by another v v senior European policymaker that some of the bigger € members were facing financial chaos that might force them out of the currency
The reality is the euro was saved through a combination of economic pain (Greece et al) and monetary anaesthetics, delivered by Draghi. Not fundamental reforms that addressed the deeper problems with the currency area. Those are still IN NO WAY resolved
The absence of a fiscal union, the lack of a properly funded banking union with joint deposit insurance, the inability to issue eurobonds. These were and still are the issues that mean in practice the euro is not irreversible
Why, you might ask, is even lifelong eurosceptic Matteo Salvini now saying the euro is irreversible? In large part because of charts like this. Since Brexit € popularity has soared to all time highs. One product of #EUref was to unite the rest of Europe as never before
Political and popular support is important, but it won't prevent another crisis. And the evidence is far from narrowing the economic and cultural divergences within the EU and eurozone are widening rather than narrowing. Eg see brookings.edu/wp-content/upl…
None of this means euro will inevitably collapse in the next crisis. But unless it introduces some form of fiscal transfers to share the burden and redistribute from rich to poor areas, it won't be safe. One chink of light: German enthusiasm for tight fiscal policy is diminishing
Brexit may change things. Macron hopes once UK leaves balance of power shifts and door opens to deeper integration. But while Europeans love the euro it's not clear they love sharing national wealth with poorer members. More in today's @thetimes column thetimes.co.uk/article/the-eu…
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
🧵How worried should we (and @RachelReevesMP) be about the slightly nervy reaction from financial markets towards her first Budget?
Short answer: certainly a bit worried.
But perhaps not for the reasons you might expect...
Worth saying at the outset: these markets are volatile.
Trying to interpret movements in govt bonds is v tricky.
They're moved by all sorts of factors - fiscal, monetary, economic and structural - from all over the world.
So yesterday's Budget is only one of many factors here...
Even so, there has been a marked rise in UK bond yields following the Budget which is greater than what we're seeing in other markets.
This morning the UK 10 year bond yield hit the highest level in nearly a year. It's up 1.7% since yday - far more than US or German equivalents
🚨Latest UK population numbers just landed.
Two headlines:
- The UK natural population (eg domestic births minus deaths) is now FALLING - at the fastest rate in modern history.
- Yet OVERALL population is rising at the fastest rate since 1948 🤯
How? Lemme explain...
🧵
Nearly every year since records began a century and a bit ago, more people in the UK were born than died.
In the year to 2023, that changed.
664k births. 681k deaths.
The net drop of 16k is the biggest on record (also in % terms).
It's a watershed moment for UK demographics.
Yet the overall UK population rose.
& not by a little:
...at the fastest rate in 76 years! A near 1% increase.
That's a massive change in the number of people in the country.
How? You probably already know the reason...
🚨This is the story of how UK & EU goods are STILL going into Russia in vast quantities, despite sanctions.
Of how the economic war waged by the G7 is failing.
Of how I witnessed sanctions rules broken in plain sight.
But above all else it’s the story of a chart... 🧵
Here’s the chart in question. It shows you UK car exports to Russia.
And there’s a clear story here.
Look: when Russia invaded Ukraine, the UK (and for that matter most of the G7) imposed sanctions on Russia. So exports of cars to Russia stopped.
End of story, right?
Wrong, because now look at what happened to exports of UK cars to countries in the Caucasus and Central Asia.
At precisely the same moment as sanctions were imposed on Russia, exports of these cars to Russian neighbours suddenly ROSE.
🧵Here’s the extraordinary story of a Frenchman who came up with an invention that changed the world, before events took a twist.
It’s a rollercoaster story that just might help us solve one of the biggest challenges facing humanity.
Sounds far-fetched, I know, but read on…
The man in question was Nicolas Leblanc.
Born in 1742, he trained as a doctor but was always short of cash. He became the physician to Louis Philippe II, Duke of Orléans - a minor French royal. Like many enlightened intellectuals, his hobby was scientific experimentation.
And when he heard about a scientific competition, launched by the French Academy of Sciences and backed by none other than King Louis XVI, he jumped at the chance. The prize of 2,400 livres (quite a lot - a few years of earnings) would go to whoever could turn salt into soda ash
🧵Want to understand why weaning ourselves off fossil fuels like oil is such a tricky challenge?
Best place to start is with this ubiquitous toy👇
This is a thread about what I call the LEGO conundrum.
It begins when you ponder what a LEGO brick is actually made of...
Standard Lego bricks are made of something called Acrylonitrile Butadiene Styrene.
ABS is a tough thermoplastic you often find in the handles of scissors or the frames of hard carry-on baggage cases.
But Lego bricks are prob the most iconic application. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Acrylonit…
It's worth saying btw not all Lego pieces are made out of ABS.
Baseplates are moulded from high impact polystyrene. Gearwheels are polyamide.
The small, flexible green pieces that look like plant stalks or flags are polyethylene, and so on and so on. lego.com/en-us/sustaina…
🧵
It might look like something from space, but some folks think lumps of rock like this could help us solve one of the biggest problems facing the planet.
Others fear they could trigger ecological catastrophe.
Presenting the weird, unsettling story of polymetallic nodules
These potato-sized mineral lumps form over millions of yrs on the ocean floor as metals accrete around organic fragments.
Up until 150 years ago no-one knew polymetallic nodules even existed. Today they're a very big deal.
So. Here are the 2 main things you need to know abt them
1. These nodules contain ASTOUNDING concentrations of certain metals - esp nickel, manganese, cobalt and copper. The grades of metals are multiples better than anything you can find on land (esp now we've mined out most of the easy stuff).