Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #EUref

Most recents (24)

Let's pause for a minute, and review just what happened to The #LibDems at #GE2019.

Unlike the recent hand-wringing internal review, I don't believe for a second that the policy to #RevokeArticle50 was toxic to the majority of potential #LibDems voters.
1. The Labour Party's refusal to enter into stand-down pacts.

History is already being rewritten, placing the blame for non-cooperation on The #LibDems.

This simply isn't true.

Even Labour MPs at the time, admitted it was LABOUR whom refused.

businessinsider.com/labours-rosie-…
2. Fear of a Corbyn-led government outweighed concerns regarding Brexit.

In polls during the weeks preceding #GE2019, it was clear that Boris Johnson wasn't very popular...

But it was also clear that Jeremy Corbyn was EXTREMELY unpopular.

thestreet.com/.amp-mishtalk/…
Read 13 tweets
@DPJHodges Just read your piece.

Difficult to cut thru all YOUR hate, scorn & vitriol, but I discern the kernel of an idea — that people want to be respected & *feel* Remainers don't.

That's actually a fair point, but don't you think you'd convey it better if you didn't hate-coat it?
@DPJHodges Is it actually *true* Remainers don't respect Leavers, or is it just folk like you putting that narrative out there?

a) you prime your readers' reaction by starting with the word *bitter* & using a string of pejoratives (As BITTER REMOANERS RANT... FRUITCAKES & LOONIES)

/cont.
@DPJHodges Was Campbell being "bitter" when he mocked a 50p coin? Or was he merely thinking, like millions of us, that the inscription felt rather at odds with "17 million F*** Offs" proponents of the #Brexit ideology pride themselves on giving to the EU?

Was that just you editorialising?
Read 17 tweets
@Bebe111 @derekjames150 a) if we stop paying £7.9bn/yr (official figure) to EU dues, we also lose the £80bn/yr in benefits it yields. What's the plan to compensate our economy for that?

b) the UK govt divied up the quotas & OUR fishermen sold them. Those contracts will still apply post-#Brexit.

/cont.
@Bebe111 @derekjames150 cont...

Why will those contracts still apply? The #RuleOfLaw is a cornerstone of our constitution. Contract law is local, UK law. Without it nobody who trades or transacts business of any kind could have confidence in engaging in any form of commerce in the UK.

/cont.
@Bebe111 @derekjames150 cont...

Furthermore UK will still have to operate fishing quotas to protect the sea from overfishing and the fish from extinction - something our govt has kept v. QUIET about!

/cont.
Read 40 tweets
Donald Tusk's diary, 12th June 2016:

"Farage & his people, but also many Tories incl. Boris Johnson who until recently had been offering Cameron his support, are now outdoing each other in lies about the EU and promises about the how wonderful its going to be once they leave."
Tusk, 26th Sept 2017:

"After the meeting [with May] there's a short media statement, where I expressed my hope that this 'have a cake and eat a cake' attitude is now gone. It's linked to Boris Johnson's departure in July, who was the main proponent of the cakeism philosophy'
Tusk, 4th December 2017:

"I feel sorry for her [Theresa May], because she took on an almost hopeless mission [to whip the Conservative Party into backing her deal]
Read 16 tweets
A number of people (n > 2) have now asked me about the effect of rain on turnout, given that it is forecast to be wet on Thursday (1/n).
This is not a stupid question. There is academic research on the precipitation/turnout link, either for its own sake or as an instrumental variable (2/n).
The most cited paper on this topic finds that *an inch* of rain over the course of the day reduces turnout by almost one percent: myweb.fsu.edu/bgomez/GomezHa… (3/n)
Read 16 tweets
I want to share a new paper. Its relevant to #GE2019. The findings are quite exemplary of the misguidedness of much of economic & social policy under the #ConservativeParty. It should be a harbinger to wary voters: there is more of the same under the Tories & with #Brexit. 1/..
The short summary: the reform to housing benefit from 2011 onwards was intended to save the public purse hundreds of millions. But quite the reverse happened: not only did it create huge amounts of misery and agony, it also ended up not saving the public much money at all. 2/..
What happened? From April 2011 onwards, local housing allowance was massively cut from covering up to the median level of rents, to only cover up to the 30th percentile of market rents. Here is a map of how this affected households in terms of expected losses per week. 3/..
Read 17 tweets
So why I think the #GE2019 is really not done yet. A short thread. The summary: I think a hung parliament is still a very likely and a desirable outcome for the UK. I first present some evidence on the former, and then my view on the desirability on the latter. #Brexit
1. Most opinion polls now point to a #Cons maj, including yesterday's @YouGov MRP. MRP is great in the tool box, but still relies on raw polling data. Here, bit.ly/2q0iSFW, I argue here that YouGov samples for BES do appear structurally different and potentially biased
2. Opinion polls are still mostly conducted at national level, ignoring constituency-level factors. My PhD student @EleAla shows that in UK, turnout tends to be systematically lower the "safer" a seat is. And this effect is increasing in the poll national lead of the incumbent..
Read 18 tweets
Just days away from a #GE2019 which will shape UK for many generations to come!

Some incontrovertible facts:

1/ UK GDP% growth has stalled, at just 0.1% over the 6 months to 30sep19 (so, virtually flat-lining). This is the worst 1/2 year performance since the financial crash.
2/ Three plus years on from the disastrous #EURef, we now KNOW that destabilising Russian influence/cash was a material factor in driving the #Leave Vote. So, #RussiaReport MUST be released BEFORE we vote again in #GE2019.
3/ Russian agents also freely KILL (when directed & funded to do so) on the streets of Britain, so let's not readily 'pooh pooh' their ambition & reach to destabilise both the #UK & #EU.
Read 17 tweets
In the grand arc of Farage's political career, today marks an important moment

1/
Until now, a key part of his rhetoric has been based on the argument that none of the other parties offer an acceptable EU policy, tapping into wider discontents with politics and disconnection with elites

2/
Sure, that meant a long time standing on the edge of the debate, chipping away at CON internal tensions, but ultimately it brought him to a much more consequential level of importance in the 2010s

3/
Read 13 tweets
Flying back from abroad into UK political news is unreal. Cabinet members on Grenfell, No.10 brazenly burying a report on Russian interference, Tory party doctoring a video on Starmer, govt reversing a promise to give the Commons a vote...

Brexit has turned Britain inside out.
And that’s just today.

We have weeks ahead of this.

There are serious reasons to doubt the capability of our system to safeguard electoral integrity.

This list demonstrates that we are not in the safe hands of a govt who wants to promote trust & confidence in the system.
I heard a well-informed Canadian tourist say, after staying a week in Britain:

“Brexit seemed a lot funnier from the outside.”

***
Read 5 tweets
**On "respecting" the referendum**

I think “respect” is the wrong word because it suggests to do the opposite is to be disrespectful. A better word is “uphold” or “implement”.
It’s perfectly possible to respect a vote but disagree with it and refuse to implement when you have better information.

We are in the mindset of sunk cost fallacies and our positions on both sides are becoming entrenched.
I would MPs on both sides to reconsider whether the 2016 vote was truly democratic. There’s little merit to be had in upholding/implementing something that comes from an undemocratic mandate.
Read 5 tweets
On my way to Berlin for the launch of @ForumNewEconomy. I ll be talking about "Why #Brexit votes happen: An evaluation of the impact of #austerity".
Unfortuantely, there is much more I would like to say... but can't within 10 minutes. So here is what's missing out...
In the run up to 2016 #EURef, the UK was actually slowly and gradually becoming more pro European if you believe 30 @EurobarometerEU studies since 2000.
The 2016 #EURef is culmination of political developments with UK's electoral system playing a crucial role. Here a short thread why & how #austerity induced voter shifts affected election dynamics, pushing Cameron into holding #Brexit referendum:
Read 8 tweets
(Thread) Should we have a confirmatory referendum?

Brexiters cry: what then? a third, a fourth, a fifth until you like the result?
I've heard this argument many times, argued as if the result of the 2016 was an act of serendipity; a fluke, that may or may not happen again, like a toss of a coin that could be reversed and re-reversed randomly each time you repeat the exercise.
Of course, that's a false argument: democracy is never random; it's well-thought out and considered (or should be), and it always reflects the current wishes of the people.
Read 10 tweets
On Wednesday & Thursday this week (thanks to many of you who generously donated to our crowdfund) a group of #RemainerNow are heading to Brussels to meet with MEPs & officials to show that the UK has changed its mind on Brexit. So what's happening?
#RemainerNowInBrussels

1/17
The plans include:

🔺 A 2 hour sit down with numerous MEPs and officials from several countries
🔺A media session arranged by several UK MEPs
🔺Lunch meetings with several others
🔺A tour of the various buildings
🔺Meeting up with Brussels based anti-brexit activists.

2/17
The UK MEPs who we are definitely meeting include @MartinChelt & @CarolineVoaden of the @libdems, @SebDance & @RCorbettMEP from Labour & @AlynSmith from @theSNP. So do keep an eye on feeds.

Sadly Green MEPs are not actually in Brussels but they are supportive of the trip.

3/17
Read 18 tweets
THREAD of Boris Johnson getting owned on the campaign trail :-

There is a conceit shared by Tories/Media/Experts that they only lost #GE2017 because Theresa May was a useless campaigner.

Boris Johnson chased out of his alma mater Oxford by students
A brilliant bunch of teenagers in Plymouth slam Boris Johnson/Tories/media and defend Corbyn

Also call #GE2017 result better than all the pollsters and 'experts'

Boris Johnson confronted in St Ives over his Brexit lies
Read 15 tweets
This was meant as a general statement, but today I'd like to apply it to the EU

1/
One of the consequences of #EUref was the construction of a public debate that says the EU is either the best thing since sliced bread, or the worst thing ever

Oddly, it's neither

2/
People voted for lots of different reasons in #EUref - sometimes to do with the EU, sometimes not - but having become more invested in an identity as a Leaver or a Remainer, it's tempting to seek out things that confirm that identity

3/
Read 11 tweets
More for me than for you, here's a list of the moving parts in an Art.50 extension request

1/
Either side can request an extension (Art.50(3)), but in practice EU27 have said it has to come from UK

2/
Form of request isn't specified, but would need to be both legally and politically credible

On previous occasions this was a letter from PM to EUCO President

3/
Read 10 tweets
So a compatriot in the UK for over twice as long as I have been, took their life in part due to the anxiety of what Brexit has brought to us, EU citizens in the UK.
Brexiters have accused all sorts for this.
They accused the EU and Merkel in particular for allegedly refusing to talk with Theresa May and agree a deal early on.
They didn't say a word when members of her government called us bargaining chips.
They said nothing when time after time, the government refused to meet with groups representing EU citizens in the UK and UK citizens in the EU.
Read 26 tweets
Today is possibly .@theresa_may's last day as PM, if .@BorisJohnson can command a majority (which is in some doubt...)

So it's a great opportunity to look back at some of the *highlights* of Mrs May's premiership in memes👇
13 JUL 2016: May was appointed as PM and named her Cabinet shortly thereafter, surprising many by giving 3 of the top #Brexit-related jobs to arch-brexiters Boris Johnson, David Davis & Liam Fox. Sheer folly, or genius in making them own what they'd sold? Sadly, the former😢
/1.
5 OCT 2016: With such a narrow result, the country could be forgiven for expecting May to propose a consensual solution, as Norway PM Erna Solberg had done in a similar situation. Most Remainers would've accepted #Norway.

May's #CitizensOfNowhere speech crushed all hope.
/2.
Read 71 tweets
Worth a read from @peoplesvote_uk on options: d3n8a8pro7vhmx.cloudfront.net/in/pages/19743…

fine to point out problems of alternatives, but another referendum would also have many issues

1/
@peoplesvote_uk Firstly, there's no clear incentive to pass the legislation through for a vote.

Other options are problematic, but unevenly so, thus different sections of Commons might feel they don't want to go down this path

2/
@peoplesvote_uk Secondly, there's no guarantee a second referendum would be run w/o the problems that compromising integrity of #EUref for many.

Process matters as much as outcome

3/
Read 6 tweets
Some quick thoughts on #PeterboroughByElection

1/
Many sighs of relief will be heard today, following LAB retention of a seat when much seemed stacked against them: disgraced incumbent; bullish and v.active challenger; less than scintillating candidate; etc

3/
Turnout was also pretty high (48%), so can defend result as more as being more than just core votes

4/
Read 10 tweets
1) This is serious! Stop whingeing and whining that you don't like @jeremycorbyn you don't have to, what you should be looking at are Labour's brilliant COSTED policies and the party headed by a man who will bust a git to remain truthful and true to his word and implement them.
2) Some people es[ecially the crabby older generation (of which I am one) have moaned and droned on for years about not having people like Blair and Cameron as PMs that they wanted normal people who spoke without spin and told the truth. Well now we have such a man in
3) Jeremy Corbyn and what do you all do? You start whining and moaning about him being a NORMAL PERSON, FFS what do you want? In Corbyn, we have someone who is caring kind, truthful and decent and the Tory press and broadcast media recognise this and start smearing him and you
Read 12 tweets
BXP has no manifesto, no detailed policies & no plan for #Brexit (no, "just walk away" isn't a serious plan outside of a pub!)

Why are people willing to vote for a shady outfit that isn't a party, has dodgy finances & will likely adopt #UKIP's *no work* habit?
#EUelections2019
What's more, BXP now say they want to run in the next GE, even though the leader admits #Brexit isn't the answer to any of our domestic problems — you know, all those problems Leave voters thought Brexit was going to fix.

#EUelections2019
Somehow it feels like this is all about the salary and perks for some of the BXP's candidates, and that they're not taking the business of representing our country in an international forum seriously - as indeed those who were previously part of UKIP never have.

#EUelections2019
Read 24 tweets
I've noticed that it's been several days since I even tried to pass comment on Brexit. Indeed, I struggle to think of a period of this length since #EUref when there has been so little to say

1/
That's despite being just over a week out from #EUelections2019 , being into the 5th week of CON-LAB talks and the UK finally asking about changes to the Political Declaration

2/
But none of this is addressing the fundamental blockages in the process

3/
Read 8 tweets

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