@BetseyStevenson We have an Introductory Micro book, Macro, or combined Principles of Econ. Choose the book you need.
It'll be free for you (the instructor) & we’ll provide free (digital) copies for all of your students. Plus instructor resources.
Your students will see you as a superhero...
@BetseyStevenson Read the fine print: Obviously, I can’t persuade my publishers to do this forever. The free textbooks are just for Spring 2020. After that, it’ll back to usual retail pricing (though @MacmillanLearn is usually more competitive than its rivals).
My publisher knows whether the book is high quality. Instructors don’t. This offer loses money unless folks who try the book end up loving it. It's a costly signal worth sending only if you believe the book really works.
I think this critique is exactly right, so lemme try to put Harris's big econ speech in North Carolina in context next to Trump's big econ speech in North Carolina a couple of days ago...
1. Harris's econ speech was about the economy. Trump's econ speech barely mentioned the economy. Indeed, he had to keep reminding himself that he was meant to talk econ. He was rambling, incoherent, and said almost nothing recognizable as econ.
2. Harris's facts were true. ("a loaf of bread today costs 50% more than before the pandemic.")
Trump's "facts" were false. ("the cost of bacon, where it went up four and five times").
Lemme 'splain... There's two stories about the economy, and two sets of storytellers. There's the view from Wall Street, and the reality on Main Street. Financial markets tell you about the former, and economists are about the latter. Imma give you the economist's version.
And the truth is, when you dig into the economic numbers, the current economy is gloriously, splendidly, brilliantly... boring. This is what an economy that's returning to a healthy normal looks like.
On inflation, perspective matters. The pandemic led to a lotta craziness -- including inflation. But that spike is behind us, and inflation is most of the way back to normal.
I don't hate this policy as much as I thought I would bc this isn't traditional rent control.
Think of it as macro policy—setting a nominal anchor when the Fed's target isn't working—rather than as micro policy setting the relative price of housing.
The proposed controls appear not to apply to new construction. And so they still allow the price signal to provide an incentive for new construction.
Blunting price signal is bad — to the extent that it affects those at the margin. But this policy is mostly infra-marginal.
Also, these are price control on the rate of change of rent, rather than on its level. If *relative* prices are somewhat coherent now, and the policy is temporary, they'll stay somewhat coherent for at least a few years.
This striking pattern of Trump under-performing his poll numbers continues. According to 538, Trump was meant to win:
- Massachusetts by 37 (NYT says he's up by 23)
- Tennessee by 69 (he's up 57)
- Texas by 64 (he's up 56)
- Virginia by 49 (he's up by 29)
The exception:
- North Carolina by 46 (he's up 51)
Plus in those states with more sparse polling there's no 538 average. But the final Trump-Haley poll suggested Trump would win:
- Alabama by 75 (he's up 68)
- Oklahoma by 77 (he's up 66)
- Maine 58 by (he's up 47)
- Minnesota by 64 (he's up 41)
- Utah by 27 (he's up 14)
Most striking, of course, is Vermont.
There were two polls, and they put Trump up by +30 and +28, respectively. At this point the NYT says Haley will win, by about 4 points.
Yes kids, we are: The inflation measure the Fed targets (core PCE) has run at an annualized rate of 1.9% over the past six months, *below* the Fed's two percent target.
This isn't a one-off blip; it's six months of sustained low inflation.
Core PCE inflation over the past year was 3.2%, but that tells us a lot about what was happening in late 2022.
Over the past 6 months, inflation was 1.9%; over the prior 6 months it was 4.5%. As those high rates "fall out" of the 12 month window, year-ended inflation will fall.
Inflation is now lower than when President Biden took office.
There's no question people are telling pollsters they're miserable about the economy. But riddle me this: Why can't we find evidence of this pessimism in anything other that public opinion polls?
Every non-poll based indicator of confidence suggests folks are optimistic [thread]
Take consumption. If folks were worried about their economic future, you might think they would be squirrelling money away for the hard times coming. But they're spending like they expect ongoing economic strength.
Or investment. If our future were grim, businesses wouldn't want to invest to serve a shrinking market. But they're investing at robust rates.