1. Today after 40 years of disputes the US House passed a resolution recognizing the Armenian Genocide. Armenian Americans are celebrating. I do not want to begrudge them this moment. They feel closure and acknowledgement of their grandparents' loss. latimes.com/politics/story…
2. I spent years studying the issue. I also call the massacres of more than 1 million Armenians in 1915-16 the Armenian Genocide. It was the worst atrocity of WWI. Though I prefer the term Mets Yeghern, Great Catastrophe, a distinct name like the Shoah. amazon.co.uk/Great-Catastro…
3. Like many others, I also believe that genocide, the word Lemkin invented in 1944 is a Pandora's Box. It's both too legalistic and too politicized, it makes human stories into a crime scene, it's a blunt weapon in identity politics. Yet I still use the term Armenian Genocide
4. ..because what happened to them in 1915-16 does fit the UN Genocide Convention definition--and it would be much worse not to use it. Of course the shadow of the Holocaust hangs heavily here. Here is a Foreign Affairs essay I wrote on the issue. foreignaffairs.com/articles/unite…
5. Some comments about what happens now:
The historical record was already established: US legislators have no authority on that. We know most of them did so more to punish Erdogan’s Turkey than to honour Armenians. They mixed their messages with a Turkish sanctions resolution.
6. If some nationalist Turks, who traditionally harbor paranoia about Great Power conspiracies against them, respond by persecuting Istanbul Armenians, cancelling flights to Armenia or damaging Armenian heritage, that will be no victory.
7. The real debate is to be had in Turkish society—where there has been much progress over 20 years and many historians and others own up to the horrors of 1915..
The House vote will be helpful if this is the start of something, not the end. Fingers crossed.
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1 Read in full Pres. Aliyev’s victory speech from Khankendi/Stepanakert yesterday—and be warned. It’s an angry speech, dwelling on past grievances, with nothing about the future or reconciliation. No olive branches. president.az/en/articles/vi…
2 The choreography underlines that. Delivered in camouflage fatigues in an empty square in Stepanakert/Khankendi. Aliyev was later filmed touring abandoned streets and offices alone.
3. The message is very much “#Karabakh without Armenians.” Delivered in the Azeri language to the “Azerbaijani people.” Note: “All the people of Azerbaijan are praising Allah.” The “we” here doesn't include the Armenians who fled 3 weeks ago, there's no call to them to return.
1 Pay attention to #Georgia 🇬🇪 today! A THREAD Last night police in Tbilisi forcibly dispersed a protest against a new Foreign Agent law rushed through parliament. It’s an escalation by the ever more authoritarian Georgian Dream govt
2 For good coverage see the websites of @CivilGe @JAMnewsCaucasus@OCMediaorg (and its @mari_nikuradze) All are small independent outlets, which are incidentally threatened by the new legislation. Also look at @formulaGe who had these iconic pictures
3 The bill and crackdown are a massive challenge to the EU, which offered GE conditional candidate perspective last year. “This law is incompatible with EU values and standards. It goes against Georgia’s stated objective of joining the European Union,” eeas.europa.eu/eeas/georgia-s…
Since then the situation has got a bit worse. The Lachin Corridor to Karabakh remains closed to all but a few vehicles, chiefly the ICRC. And three Armenian policemen and two Azerbaijani soldiers were reported killed in two separate incidents. rferl.org/a/armenia-azer…
My main point: the ARM-AZ situation is very volatile, it can tip into more violence, or there could be a framework peace agreement. PM Pashinyan has gone out on a limb, but Pres. Aliyev continues to press and make the Armenians insecure--a situation which Russia exploits.
1/ If you haven’t been watching the situation in the so-called #Lachin Corridor, the only road connecting Armenia and #Karabakh, you should now. The Armenian-Azerbaijani situation may be sliding slowly back into conflict. A short thread.
2/ Self-declared Azerbaijani environmentalists evidently sent there by the government in Baku (Azerbaijan’s version of “Little Green Men”?) have been blocking the Lachin road and therefore access in and out for local Armenians. eurasianet.org/azerbaijanis-a…
3/ Azerbaijan has legitimate concerns about alleged new mines being laid around the corridor. But as this expert hints Azerbaijan's agenda is much bigger than this: “the establishment of Baku’s sovereign rights over the entire territory of Karabakh.” jam-news.net/azerbaijan-is-…
1 Credit to @Kamal_Makili for setting out the case for Aaland Islands style autonomy for the Karabakh Armenians very eloquently here. commonspace.eu/node/11445
2 As Kamal himself points out, neither Baku nor Stepanakert is interested in discussing this at the moment. But he makes some important points, including about how international guarantees underpin the Aaland Islands model.
3 In my recent (not so much noticed) article for Analyticon I also mention the three big Helsinki Final Act principles of territorial integrity, self-determination and non-use of force as 3 conceptual pillars of a peace process. theanalyticon.com/en/may-2022-en…
Here is a piece commissioned by the Armenian online analytical journal Analyticon on the new EU mediated ARM-AZ talks theanalyticon.com/en/may-2022-en…
Three questions. The role of Russia? What now for the Minsk Group. (It’s frozen but not entirely dead). And what about the #Karabakh Armenians? Territorial independence is off the table but, as I’ve said for many years, the question of their security is paramount.
In a new statement Charles Michel’s spokesperson clarified some details and also stresses the importance of public diplomacy and “rights and security” consilium.europa.eu/en/press/press…