Thread by @BestForBritain

THREAD

As many of you are aware, we have launched getvoting.org - our tactical vote dashboard intended to stop a pro-Brexit Parliament at the next General Election.

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Many questions: Are we pro-Labour? Are we pro-LibDem? Are we anti-Tory? Are we pro-Green?

We are a cross-party campaign with a mission to stop Brexit by any democratic means.

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We consider each candidate and Brexit position in our recommendations - our options include Green, Plaid Cymru, Lib-Dem, Labour, and Independent candidates based on their willingness to do the right thing as well as their chance of beating Brexiter candidates.

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We’ve taken these decisions on a case-by-case basis in every seat.

So, what's our methodology, what data are we relying on and how reliable is that data?

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A lot has happened since the last General Election in 2017. Some parties have new leaders, others have changed their Brexit policies and the electorate has swung all over the place. This means we cannot use the 2017 vote shares to predict what will happen this time.

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Tactical Voting recommendations have to be made on the most recently available and reliable data.

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Our recommendations are based on a technique called MRP (multilevel-regression and post-stratification)

It’s the favoured approach of most political forecasters and correctly predicted the election of Trump & surprise wins for Labour in Kensington and Canterbury in 2017.

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The MRP we are using was undertaken in October 2019 on a sample size of 46,000 voters. We also use political analysis of candidates’ past statements and policies.

So, although our decisions are data-led, we also take other factors into account.

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This is the biggest polling & data science-led exercise of its kind we have ever undertaken.

We predicted Labour's vote share in the Peterborough by-election within 0.6% accuracy.

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...more later.