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Tomas Pueyo Profile picture
@tomaspueyo
Nov 7, 2019 • 5 tweets • 3 min read • Read on X
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These are true slides from Softbank's investors deck
cdn.group.softbank/en/corp/set/da…

#softbank #WeWork #VC #CrazySiliconValley Image
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More from @tomaspueyo

Tomas Pueyo Profile picture
Jan 29
UNPRECEDENTED
The singularity is near. We're 1-6 years away from AGI according to:
1. Prediction markets
2. Insider insights
3. Benchmarks
4. Lack of barriers to growth
5. Current progress

This breakneck speed of AI progress is illustrated by OpenAI's o3 and DeepSeek🧵 Image
1. Prediction Markets:
Average bet on AGI: November 2030
Mode: June 2027Image
Two other bets in Metaculus match this:
• Two years to weak AGI, so by the end of 2026
• Three years later, Superintelligence, so by the end of 2029 Image
Image
Read 22 tweets
Tomas Pueyo Profile picture
Jan 18
This remote corner of the US has something unique that might soon make it one of the most important cities in the world—the city of the future. It is officially Boca Chica today, but it might soon become Starbase 🧵 Image
This point at the south of Texas is the southernmost point in the continental US Image
That is extremely useful for rockets

The biggest share of weight in rockets is fuel. Most of it is burnt just to carry the rest to orbit! Rocket makers do anything they can to reduce fuel consumption Image
Read 14 tweets
Tomas Pueyo Profile picture
Jan 3
The answer to this is FASCINATING, it goes beyond what most people think, and its ramifications help explain ALL of the US's climate and population

Here's what people already know: rain
Water basically stops halfway through the US
But why? Image
The next thing people will say is: mountains. The US West has tons of them! See map

Mountains stop rain, and the US West is mountainous, so that's why rain doesn't make it farther, right?
Wrong! Image
Look at California's Sierra Nevada. The western slopes of the mountains are GREEN! They CATCH the rains

Why doesn't this happen in the middle of the US? Image
Read 16 tweets
Tomas Pueyo Profile picture
Dec 5, 2024
Why are the top 20 US cities where they are? (including metropolitan areas): 🧵

1. New York: It became the trading hub between the Great Lakes and the Atlantic regions when it built its canals through the Appalachians

Image
2. Los Angeles:
• Trading hub between the world (Pacific) and the US (railways)
• Weather + biggest coastal valley on the Pacific➡️agriculture & cheap building
• Oil
• Landscapes + far from the East Coast centers of power➡️Attracted the film industry

Image
3. Chicago:
Trading hub between the Mississippi River Basin and the the Great Lakes area (and hence the world, via New York)

Image
Read 20 tweets
Tomas Pueyo Profile picture
Nov 26, 2024
People think we must shrink the world's population to be happy, but they're wrong

A world with shrinking population would be decaying, poor, brutal, violent, hopeless

A world with 100 billion people would be dynamic, rich, innovative, peaceful, hopeful
🧵 Image
1. In the last 2 centuries, the world got better as the population exploded:
• Richer
• Live older
• Lower child mortality Image
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• Fewer homicides
• Fewer war deaths
• Fewer hours worked
• Lower share of poor people
And much more: fewer infections, diseases, accidents. More racial equality, sexual equality. Instant access to all the knowledge in the world. We can go anywhere, whenever we want... Image
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Read 17 tweets
Tomas Pueyo Profile picture
Nov 19, 2024
We can raise our population on Earth from 8 billion to 100B humans if we want to

Would we starve?
Be too crowded?
Would pollution explode?
Ecosystems collapse?

No! Don't believe alarmist degrowthers. This is why they're wrong: 🧵 Image
Degrowthers put a label to "how many humans can the Earth sustain": carrying capacity

Their estimates vary wildly
Wait, what? What a surprise, the mode of their estimates is 8B—exactly the current number of ppl on Earth

WHAT A COINCIDENCE!Image
Or they lack imagination: OMG the Earth is already on the brink. Surely not one more soul fits here!

And then they try to find out what limits we might be hitting. Their most common fears are:
1. Room
2. Food
3. Water
4. Energy
5. Pollution
6. Resources
Let's look at each:
Read 20 tweets

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