Thread by @ingridharvold

Another amazing keynote lined up 🔥
#AfricanMonetarySovereignty #MES_Africa2019

https://twitter.com/Mon_Sovereignty/status/1193069539937923072

First up @JeromeRoos who talks about the long duree of sovereign debt, based on research from his new book, but focusing mostly on the extractive role of debt.
#AfricanMonetarySovereignty #MES_Africa2019

Roos points out that according to the IMF, 40% of African countries are now in high risk of debt distress. Debt is still very pertinent and will become even more so over the next years. #AfricanMonetarySovereignty #MES_Africa2019

Roos points to Latin American countries that ran into debt crises in the 1820s, and how they then stopped paying external obligations. Bond holders took huge hit & countries only resumed repayments once econ crises had passed. #MES_Africa2019
#AfricanMonetarySovereignty

New wave of speculative lending in 1920s and debt crises followed in 1930s in Latin America and Europe. A series of defaults followed. This gave the countries breathing space to recover. This is in stark contrast to today's system.
#AfricanMonetarySovereignty #MES_Africa2019

After Bretton Woods broke down, debt crises hit again. The way creditors responded was different this time - massive bailout loans from 1982. Since then stark decline in incidents of sovereign defaults. #AfricanMonetarySovereignty #MES_Africa2019

Today enforcement of international debt contracts is more effective than ever. Three structural changes are particularly relevant to understand this:
1) concentration of financial institutions & systemically important players with financialization
#AfricanMonetarySovereignty

Roos calls this a "rise of creditors cartell". We see this more recently with Greece - whose debt was held by 10-20 systemically important private bondholders who could coordinate among themselves. V. different from case of 1820s.
#AfricanMonetarySovereignty #MES_Africa2019

2) Another importance change was the formation of the IMF, which since the 80s became the international financial policeman of the Global South. IMF intervenes to discipline & make it more likely that countries will repay.
#AfricanMonetarySovereignty #MES_Africa2019

3) There are also lots of ways that "discipline" is internalized too. Roos makes the connection to domestic political economy factors - some internal actors have vested interests in such discipline (not the working class btw).
#AfricanMonetarySovereignty #MES_Africa2019

If we want to address debt problems today, Roos argues that we need to address these 3 ways that "debt bondage" is enforced.
#AfricanMonetarySovereignty #MES_Africa2019

Possible solutions?

Reform IMF, reduce power of creditor carterls, reduce financial dependence (of countries and people) on private credit.
#AfricanMonetarySovereignty #MES_Africa2019

Ndongo Samba Sylla (@nssylla) and Kai Koddenbrock (@KaiKodden) are up, talking about their work on African monetary dependency in the longue duree. #AfricanMonetarySovereignty #MES_Africa2019

Really nice summary by @KaiKodden on the key points in the conference debate so far, and the policy proposals and strategies that have come up. Summarized in these slides 👇 #AfricanMonetarySovereignty #MES_Africa2019

Koddenbrock and Sylla draw on the work of Pouemi on monetary dependence in their analysis.

They start with the point that international trade brings with it the functional need of a dominant currency that assumes the role of a valued commodity itself. #AfricanMonetarySovereignty

They go on to unpack the global hierarchical multiplicity of currencies. They find that the West African slave trade was a major driver of the rise of capitalism, but did not lead to the need to import Sterling/Franc just yet. Pre-capitalist logic. #AfricanMonetarySovereignty

They study the Cowry shell in particular, which was a regional currency preferred in Mali and Nigeria - major sources of slaves since 1500s. #AfricanMonetarySovereignty #MES_Africa2019

Sylla (@nssylla) picks up where Koddenbrock left off, by laying our the double face of monetary dependency. They see this as related to subordinated integration into a global & imperialist monetary system and as the underside of economic dependency...
#AfricanMonetarySovereignty

... this leads them to argue that a minimum in terms of monetary sovereignty is necessary for more economic sovereignty, but also that formal monetary sovereignty is not enough to progress along the spectrum of monetary sovereignty. #AfricanMonetarySovereignty #MES_Africa2019

Sylla presents what they consider the neocolonial economic model that was dominant 1960-1990. They define neocolonial as coexistence of formal independence w/advanced & renewed forms of subordinated integration with former metropoles. #AfricanMonetarySovereignty #MES_Africa2019

Here is their view of the contemporary economic model, which involves the "sound finance" view (neoliberal policies), new instruments of consent (through structural & legal restructuring) & economic and monetary dependence becoming more abstract. #AfricanMonetarySovereignty

Sylla (@nssylla) demonstrates the variety of ways that resources are extracted from the African continent, in stark contrast to the Africa rising narrative. #AfricanMonetarySovereignty #MES_Africa2019

Some concluding points:

1) MMT definition of monetary sovereignty must be reassessed with regards to developing countries.

2) Achieving a permanent status of financial independence is not a monetary issue, but a real & political economy issue.

...

#AfricanMonetarySovereignty

(conclusion continued)
... to achieve more monetary and economic sovereignty, the control over the national banking and financial sector is necessary, as well as the retreat from globalist policies destined to comply with the dictates of global finance.#AfricanMonetarySovereignty

Second panel of the day on monetary reform, with @rohangrey, Reda Mokhtar El Ftouh and @Frauke77487323. #AfricanMonetarySovereignty #MES_Africa2019

Rohan Grey (@rohangrey) is up first, speaking on the future of digital currency in Africa. #AfricanMonetarySovereignty #MES_Africa2019

In MMT fashion, @rohangrey starts by making some arguments about sovereignty:

1) Monetary sovereignty is technological sovereignty

2) Economic sovereignty is data sovereignty

3) Political sovereignty is intellectual sovereignty.

#AfricanMonetarySovereignty #MES_Africa2019

While Bitcoin was first presented as a technical apolitical currency by libertarians, we know payments are always political. @rohangrey lays out some of the many alternative ways of approaching digital currencies & electronic payments. #AfricanMonetarySovereignty

Grey goes on to lay out the possible implications of various institutional arrangements of digital currencies, including for fiscal policies, monetary policy, banking - and even labor and public investment! #GND
#AfricanMonetarySovereignty #MES_Africa2019

Grey makes the argument for community currency initiatives as an alternative to private financing.
#AfricanMonetarySovereignty #MES_Africa2019

Up next is Reda Mokhtar El Ftouh, who takes a historical perspective on what makes currency reform more or less likely to succeed. #AfricanMonetarySovereignty #MES_Africa2019

Ftouh goes indepth on the development of various currencies through history. #AfricanMonetarySovereignty #MES_Africa2019

Ftouh lays out a schema of different types of currency reforms, considering their relation to materiality/abstraction or systemicity (x axis) and it's relation to market access and stability of purchasing power (y). #AfricanMonetarySovereignty #MES_Africa2019

Ftouh: Monetary creation is dynamic, determined by market mechanisms, by contracts & by the legal rights they produce. Meanwhile, currency reform is a way to determine a framework that can constrain and/or nudge monetary creation in one way or another. #AfricanMonetarySovereignty

Now @Frauke77487323 is presenting very interesting research on the German push for local currency bond markets in Africa, from a geopolitical perspective. #AfricanMonetarySovereignty
(Relevant to our White Rose project @anninak82 @metz_caroline @megiraudo @Jonperraton @_ArpitaB).

While NGOs and IFIs are arguing that strengthening local currency bond markets (LCBMs) are positive for sustainability and stability....
#AfricanMonetarySovereignty #MES_Africa2019

..@Frauke77487323 argues that LCBM development needs to be contextualized through the policies' embeddedness in the #wallstreetconsensus narrative, the socioeconomic risks involved & the geopolitical interests driving these developments.#AfricanMonetarySovereignty #MES_Africa2019

What is the Compact with Africa (CwA)?

@Frauke77487323 lays it out 👇 before delving into the central role of deepening of domestic financial markets and creating a "favorable investment climate" in the CwA.
#AfricanMonetarySovereignty #MES_Africa2019

The predicted social economic consequences of LCBM in Africa according to the CwA:
1) creation of domestic markets
2) creation of long term domestic institutional investors
3) creation of safe asset classes (derisking)
#AfricanMonetarySovereignty #MES_Africa2019

Banse argues that with the creation of these markets, we'll likely see the further shrinking of domestic policy spaces, domestic capital only in niches, and the fixing of African economies at the service of global production networks. #MES_Africa2019 #AfricanMonetarySovereignty

... also increased risk of exposure to volatility of global financial markets and increased danger of public indebtedness. #AfricanMonetarySovereignty #MES_Africa2019

So why is Germany pushing for this?

Beyond the stated aims, @Frauke77487323 identifies several possible rationales:

1) German's desire to increase its economic footprint in Africa, which is currently weak. #MES_Africa2019
#AfricanMonetarySovereignty

Another possible rationale:

2) the development of market-based finance facilitates Germany's access to African economies, not just through financial channels, but it's also likely to facilitate developmnt of German global production networks in Africa.#AfricanMonetarySovereignty

And @DanielaGabor captures the gaps in my thread on @Frauke77487323's presentation 👇

https://twitter.com/DanielaGabor/status/1193129005458829314?s=19

Max Ajl (@ajl_max) on what delinking would look like on practice for Tunisia. He lays out an agro-ecology and food sovereignty strategy (or an unwalked peasant path) as an alternative. #AfricanMonetarySovereignty #MES_Africa2019

Closing plenary, with @FadhelKaboub @KaiKodden @nssylla and Maha Ben Gadha. #AfricanMonetarySovereignty #MES_Africa2019

Fadhel Kaboub (@FadhelKaboub) summarizes what he sees as some common understandings that emerged during the conference, framing it around different forms of sovereignty. #AfricanMonetarySovereignty #MES_Africa2019

@FadhelKaboub and Maha Ben Gadha ask the audience to help them complete the list & they are adding to it in real time. 👇
#AfricanMonetarySovereignty #MES_Africa2019