Russia's plan to infiltrate & influence right wing parties in Western democracies has turned out to be one of the greatest intelligence successes in modern history-a sweeping, shocking, enduring success. We need to view everything from the 2016 election to the Ukraine scandal...
as part of this one massive attack on our system. The Brexit vote and the current positioning of the UK Tory party is part of it. So too are political shifts in France, Italy, Austria, Germany, Hungary and Poland. Not viewing it in its totality is a huge mistake.
It minimizes the effort. Not recognizing the effort is underway and producing daily victories for the Russians is another big mistake. Because it leaves us vulnerable to Russian successes to come. Journalists need to frame this as what it is. Legislators and investigators...
do too. For what it is worth, there is also room for a big book on how it started, how it is a successor to decades old Russian efforts (see Fiona Hill's testimony),who was most vulnerable to it, why the right wing everywhere fell for it, embraced it, continues to be part of it.
This, after the climate crisis and the rise of China, is likely the biggest geopolitical story of our time w/consequences touching every corner of the world. And so far, most of the people discussing aspects of it, writing about it (save great journalists like @carolecadwalla...
are not approaching it properly. That's because it's big and sweeping and complicated and very powerful people are hiding elements of it and some aspects of it occur (by design) in legal grey areas where national security dangers and moral failures are protected...
...behind a thin wall of legal technicalities. Thus the current scandal of Boris Johnson hiding findings on Russian influence in UK politics is directly linked to the impeachment hearings. And Ukraine is not related to Russiagate, it is part of it.
Let's wise up, open our eyes, dig for the truth, right the stories...and empower those in our governments who are seeking to protect us from this campaign of Russian intelligence to succeed (as opposed to attacking them for doing what's right & essential as Bill Barr...
is seeking to do. Make no mistake, his "investigation" is a defense of the Russians at the expense of the United States and our allies. Just as was Trump's effort to shift the blame for the 2016 election hacks from Russia to Ukraine.) See the Kremlin's soldiers for who they are.
Demand not just the truth, but the whole truth.
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The easiest job in the world is foreign policy critic. I know because I not only play one on TV...it's what I do. No one gets everything right. No one controls all variables. There are always complications and options that could've, should've been considered.
But as easy as it is to critique and say, "I'm smarter, if only they'd done it my way," it is almost impossibly hard to actually conduct effective foreign policy, especially for a superpower like the U.S. There are so many moving parts.
There are so many institutional hurdles. There are so many political obstacles. There are so many factors and egos and allied interests and variables to contend with. Especially on big, fast-breaking issues of global concern.
The @POTUS response to what he accurately condemned as Russia's flagrant violation of international law was strong and smart. It was made stronger and smarter by the coordination with the wide-ranging sanctions and responses of our allies in Europe.
This was not just an example of a good performance by the president or presentation of professional crafted well-calibrated set of measures, it was also the result of tireless diplomacy and behind the scenes preparation.
The decision to move forces into the Baltics and to underscore our commitment to helping Ukraine defend itself also added an important and necessary security dimension to the measures. And there are still very substantial and meaningful measures we can introduce if needed.
So, what is wrong with saying, "International law demands Ukraine be allowed to determine its own future. So long as the people of Ukraine seek to preserve their independence, we will work with our allies to provide the support they need to do so. And...
...we will use all tools available to us to penalize Russia for violating Ukraine's independence. That includes not just sanctions, but sweeping sanctions. And not just temporary sanctions, but long-term sanctions that grow longer/deeper the longer Russia's aggression lasts.
We will seek to systematically isolate Russia within the international community and limit their ability to participate in international forums. We will target Putin and those closest to them, reveal their corruption, freeze their assets, make it impossible for them to travel.
While I appreciate the swiftness of the WH response re: sanctions on the territories recognized by Putin, I'm afraid they are inadequate and inappropriate in several respects. They are likely to be of only minimal economic consequence. Further...
...they punish the people of the territories rather than the wrong-doers, Vladimir Putin and his government. They also suggest that our severe sanctions will also come not unless there is an invasion--even if Putin unilaterally claims what would be one of the goals of invasion.
The threat of force should not be seen as an acceptable or "minor" international offense in a case like this. (You don't need to fire a gun for the penalties for armed robbery to kick in.) Proportionality is good. But, this feels light to me.
I don't even the US policymakers having to formulate a response to Putin's remarks. He has said there will be no concessions. He has said he doesn't care about sanctions. He has framed himself as a threat to both Ukraine and all the former Russian Empire.
What is the point of negotiations with someone who clearly is entering them cynically and in bad faith? If the only point is to avoid an invasion--and that's clearly the main point and a worthy one--where do you go if there are to be no concessions on the other side?
If he has asserted rights over the future of Ukraine that he does not have, should the sanctions come now? Failing to levy them enables him to claim one of the prizes invasion might have brought at no cost.
This is exactly right. (Nor is it an accident. The parallels exist in all the right wing ethno-nationalist movements supported by Putin from the Brexit crowd to Orban in Hungary to the right in France, etc.)
What I do not think is fully appreciated quite yet is what a catastrophe a full on invasion of democratic Ukraine and the kind of human toll U.S. officials and expert predict will follow will ultimately be for those movements, notably for the Trumpists here in the U.S.
Trump's naive stance, embraced by the GOP, that the Cold War was long past and it was high time we were friends with Putin, is going to be starkly revealed to be not only profoundly misguided but actively dangerous. Same with his stance to gut NATO, pull US troops out of Europe.