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Thomas de Waal Profile picture
@Tom_deWaal
Nov 26, 2019 • 4 tweets • 2 min read • Read on X
1. War first crept up on #Chechnya 25 years ago today . On Nov 26, 1994, Russian tanks and Chechen opposition fighters tried to storm Grozny. They were ignominiously captured by Chechen leader Dudayev. It was a national humiliation. handofmoscow.com/2019/11/26/the…
2. Russian DM Grachev denied the soldiers were his. (Covert war operations were not just a thing of the Putin era, let's remember). The humiliation pushed Yeltsin into an even worse blunder, a full invasion of Chechnya 2 weeks later. I knew instantly that it was a big mistake.
3. How much agony would have been spared, had Yeltsin hung back? Let's not forgot how most of the West cheered Yeltsin on. An editorial in The Times commended Yeltsin for dealing with these "outlaws." Clinton later compared Yeltsin to Abraham Lincoln. apnews.com/af16b23028342f…
4. One honourable exception was @MarcChampion1 I just pulled up his editorial in The Moscow Times of Nov 30, 1994, urging restraint and warning against full-scale military action. It's all there.

If only they'd listened to you then, Marc... oldtmt.vedomosti.ru/news/article/r…

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More from @Tom_deWaal

Thomas de Waal Profile picture
Oct 16, 2023
1 Read in full Pres. Aliyev’s victory speech from Khankendi/Stepanakert yesterday—and be warned. It’s an angry speech, dwelling on past grievances, with nothing about the future or reconciliation. No olive branches.
president.az/en/articles/vi…
2 The choreography underlines that. Delivered in camouflage fatigues in an empty square in Stepanakert/Khankendi. Aliyev was later filmed touring abandoned streets and offices alone.
3. The message is very much “#Karabakh without Armenians.” Delivered in the Azeri language to the “Azerbaijani people.” Note: “All the people of Azerbaijan are praising Allah.” The “we” here doesn't include the Armenians who fled 3 weeks ago, there's no call to them to return.
Read 7 tweets
Thomas de Waal Profile picture
Mar 8, 2023
1 Pay attention to #Georgia 🇬🇪 today! A THREAD Last night police in Tbilisi forcibly dispersed a protest against a new Foreign Agent law rushed through parliament. It’s an escalation by the ever more authoritarian Georgian Dream govt
2 For good coverage see the websites of @CivilGe
@JAMnewsCaucasus @OCMediaorg (and its @mari_nikuradze) All are small independent outlets, which are incidentally threatened by the new legislation. Also look at @formulaGe who had these iconic pictures
3 The bill and crackdown are a massive challenge to the EU, which offered GE conditional candidate perspective last year. “This law is incompatible with EU values and standards. It goes against Georgia’s stated objective of joining the European Union,”
eeas.europa.eu/eeas/georgia-s…
Read 12 tweets
Thomas de Waal Profile picture
Mar 7, 2023
Important days in the war in eastern Ukraine, a major crisis in Georgia, but don’t forget also the situation in and around #Karabakh. Here's the piece I published a week ago on “Armenia’s insecurity” for @Carnegie_Europe @Judy_Dempsey
carnegieeurope.eu/strategiceurop…
Since then the situation has got a bit worse. The Lachin Corridor to Karabakh remains closed to all but a few vehicles, chiefly the ICRC. And three Armenian policemen and two Azerbaijani soldiers were reported killed in two separate incidents. rferl.org/a/armenia-azer…
My main point: the ARM-AZ situation is very volatile, it can tip into more violence, or there could be a framework peace agreement. PM Pashinyan has gone out on a limb, but Pres. Aliyev continues to press and make the Armenians insecure--a situation which Russia exploits.
Read 4 tweets
Thomas de Waal Profile picture
Dec 13, 2022
1/ If you haven’t been watching the situation in the so-called #Lachin Corridor, the only road connecting Armenia and #Karabakh, you should now. The Armenian-Azerbaijani situation may be sliding slowly back into conflict. A short thread.
2/ Self-declared Azerbaijani environmentalists evidently sent there by the government in Baku (Azerbaijan’s version of “Little Green Men”?) have been blocking the Lachin road and therefore access in and out for local Armenians.
eurasianet.org/azerbaijanis-a…
3/ Azerbaijan has legitimate concerns about alleged new mines being laid around the corridor. But as this expert hints Azerbaijan's agenda is much bigger than this: “the establishment of Baku’s sovereign rights over the entire territory of Karabakh.”
jam-news.net/azerbaijan-is-…
Read 8 tweets
Thomas de Waal Profile picture
Jun 9, 2022
1 Credit to @Kamal_Makili for setting out the case for Aaland Islands style autonomy for the Karabakh Armenians very eloquently here.
commonspace.eu/node/11445
2 As Kamal himself points out, neither Baku nor Stepanakert is interested in discussing this at the moment. But he makes some important points, including about how international guarantees underpin the Aaland Islands model.
3 In my recent (not so much noticed) article for Analyticon I also mention the three big Helsinki Final Act principles of territorial integrity, self-determination and non-use of force as 3 conceptual pillars of a peace process.
theanalyticon.com/en/may-2022-en…
Read 9 tweets
Thomas de Waal Profile picture
Jun 1, 2022
Here is a piece commissioned by the Armenian online analytical journal Analyticon on the new EU mediated ARM-AZ talks theanalyticon.com/en/may-2022-en…
Three questions. The role of Russia? What now for the Minsk Group. (It’s frozen but not entirely dead). And what about the #Karabakh Armenians? Territorial independence is off the table but, as I’ve said for many years, the question of their security is paramount.
In a new statement Charles Michel’s spokesperson clarified some details and also stresses the importance of public diplomacy and “rights and security” consilium.europa.eu/en/press/press…
Read 4 tweets

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