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CVC Group AG Profile picture
@CVCResearch
Dec 13, 2019 • 5 tweets • 2 min read • Read on X
Days after quarter end it took to announce a reporting date:
Q318: 19
Q418: 49
Q119: 45
Q219: 62
Q319: now 74 days & counting - IR confirmed to me this week: no date yet

Days after quarter end it took to earnings:
Q318: 37
Q418: 64
Q119: 58
Q219: 86
Q319: Never?
Just for fun:
Days since announced the $200M convert finciancing from CEO & Tencent: 100
Days since financing was supposed to close (end of Sept as stated by the company): 64
Days since CEO secured financing to fund his $100M share of the convert: 59
Why does this matter? burned almost $500M in Q219 and had <$500M of gross cash at the end of Q2! They can put out whatever pumps they want - they're out of cash. #WalkingDead
This was supposed to be 74 not 64...

Days since financing was supposed to close (end of Sept as stated by the company): 74

And bonds trade at 35c...with a YTM 4+ years out of 36% (ignoring the embedded call option). If equity is a buy, bond investors are total idiots

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More from @CVCResearch

CVC Group AG Profile picture
Feb 29
$SOUN has been on quite the tear lately but has anybody actually looked at this thing closely?

They grew revenue 19% y/y in Q323, but that included a 1x rev recc from a contract modification with a Korean customer (Hyundai probably). Absent this, revenue was down -29% y/y in Q3 Image
And $SOUN RPO has been steadily trending down since they came public. And we're supposed to believe this is a growth company? c'mon, be serious

Valuation is at 25x a CY24 revenue estimate that they won't hit. This is silly nonsense. Image
$SOUN missed on Q4 Revenue ($17.1M vs $17.7M) & EBITDA (-$3.7M vs -$0.6M expected) but introduces a new, even faker "backlog" methodology so they could pump that number, lol ok Image
Read 5 tweets
CVC Group AG Profile picture
Feb 27
I think $VMEO is a long here. Just posted a writeup to VIC, for those who have access:
valueinvestorsclub.com/idea/VIMEO_INC…
I tried out the product too 🤣
$VMEO launches new AI-powered video hub, Vimeo Central 👍

vimeo.com/solutions/vime…
Image
Read 8 tweets
CVC Group AG Profile picture
Feb 5
I have a loose thesis that aggressive buybacks can, and perhaps will, be the antidote that ails the China internet sector equities. I zero in on $BABA because they've already been putting their $20B+ in annual FCF to work by buying back ~$10B/yr over the last 2 years. Image
$BABA has been the most aggressive on buybacks, maybe they get more aggressive.

Hugely accretive here:
$71 stock
$30/sh cash & inv
$19/sh LT investments

$8+ T12 EPS (8x P/E)
$10+ T12 FCF/sh (4x EV/FCF)

Up the buyback from $10B->$20B-$25B/yr and the valuation will fix itself
$YUMC plans to double its buybacks y/y in CY24 from $613M to $1.25B.

Need to see a lot more of this in China. $BABA next, buyback $10B/yr->$20B ? 🤔 Image
Read 6 tweets
CVC Group AG Profile picture
Jan 19, 2022
Thread on why I'm adding more to my already large $UCTT position here based on the ~15% pullback this week and a number of positive updates out late last week.
First, $UCTT updated its Target Model last week for the first time in several years:
Two things on this update: 1) it was overdue as $UCTT was already exceeding the top end of the prior Target Model, 2) between higher revenue & margin assumptions in the update, the high end EBIT target was just raised by 167%!
Next, I now believe CY22 consensus numbers for $UCTT to be wildly low! Industry CY22 WFE growth expectations have moved up from HSD to low-mid teens over last few mths. On a calendarized basis, the street now has $LRCX & $AMAT growing top line ~10% & ~12%, respectively, in CY22.
Read 15 tweets
CVC Group AG Profile picture
Oct 21, 2021
The new $AAPL MacBook Pros are the first to feature mini-LED display technology. Very relevant to $KLIC

theverge.com/2021/10/18/227…
Mini-LED technology is nascent, but growth projections are bonkers. $AAPL continuing to move forward with mLED adoption on schedule is a big deal. They first intro'd mLED in the iPad Pro in April '21.

theverge.com/2021/4/21/2239…
Those bonkers mini-LED growth projections? 86% Revenue CAGR projected for mini-LED through 2026! Gonna need a lot of tools for that! $KLIC

globenewswire.com/news-release/2…
Read 8 tweets
CVC Group AG Profile picture
Oct 18, 2021
Couple things from the SEC report out today on $GME trading. First chart here shows buying by "traders identified as having a large short position in GME" in red vs total buying in blue. SEC essentially concluded that because the total buying in blue is so much larger than... 1/5 Image
buying by known shorts (in red) that the impact of short covering was relatively small (their language is below). I think this may be misguided bc 1) the largest spike in red buying coincided very well with the late January initial rip in $GME, and... 2/5 Image
2) because so much of overall trading volume is passive (heard numbers like 80%-90%), the "small fraction" that was short covering may very well have represented a much more meaningful fraction of active market buying. 3/5
Read 5 tweets

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