Frederik Ducrozet Profile picture
Dec 19, 2019 10 tweets 4 min read Read on X
This must be the most comprehensive, fascinating review of the ECB’s foundations and policies that has ever been produced. It will take some time to digest indeed, but here are a few highlights on my side. (1/n)
The authors' broad framework is one of “two regimes”, helping to (re)think ECB policies and the effects of the debt/institutional crisis, in particular. (2/n)
I'll leave the foundations for another day, but it surely provides the starting point for the upcoming strategy review.
As for the future, well now there's a speech for that. (3/n)
All the way through the crisis, there's a section dedicated to one of Draghi's most important speeches, in Amsterdam in 2014, which "he turned into an act of transparency and disclosure about the contingent plans themselves, unprecedented for an institution like the ECB." (4/n)
Amsterdam provided the basis for the Asset Purchase Programme (the third contigency), but also for a "modular" strategy comprised of complementary policy tools. (5/n)
The authors then discuss the conditions that led to Draghi's equally important speech in Jackson Hole on 22 August, reflecting on the concepts of “inflation gap”, “missing stimulus”, and the drift lower in inflation expectations. #5y5y (6/n) Image
Obviously, the #WhateverItTakes moment is also well worth a read: an emergency ECB meeting on Sunday 17 June; a blueprint for OMT; Draghi's "off-the-cuff remarks" and #bumblebee analogy; and the reaction in the room with everyone staring at their phones. (7/n) Image
Looking forward to the strategy review, the study provides important thoughts in section 6 ("A combined-arms strategy"), including about the cost and side-effects of ECB policies. (8/n)
The most striking part on side-effects is about the reversal rate, which "might not be in sight for still quite a while". Indeed, the authors' analysis suggests that the reversal rate is below -1% in the euro area (the lowest rate they use in their assumptions). (9/n) Image
In the end, this a crucial review at a crucial time. Let's hope that the @ecb makes the best of it next year. (10/10)

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More from @fwred

Jul 1
🇫🇷 Is France heading to a hung parliament?
A thread with great charts and maps. 🧵
Importantly, French opinion polls have been broadly accurate once again. However, they usually fail to provide robust estimates for the second round of the legislative elections, and this time looks much more uncertain than usual.
As expected, participation surged in the first round to close to 67%, 20 points higher than in 2022, and the highest since 1997. Image
Read 12 tweets
Aug 28, 2023
🇪🇺 Euro area M3 money growth contracted in July, for the first time in 13 years. However, it's important to put things in perspective. 🧵 Image
M3 annual growth continues to be dragged lower by the narrow money aggregate M1 which contracted by a record amount in nominal and real terms. Image
The contraction of M1 has been driven by the decline in overnight deposits, down 10% YoY. However this has been the result of a shift from overnight to longer-term deposits starting in Q4 2022, with cash seeking higher yields. The money is not 'moving out' of the system. Image
Read 6 tweets
Aug 23, 2023
🇪🇺 Four takeaways from euro area PMIs.
1. Services sector contraction led by Germany, with early signs of labour market weakening. A sign that monetary policy transmission is working. Image
2. Early signs of stabilisation in the manufacturing sector, but external demand remains subdued. Image
3. Price pressures have increased somewhat in the German services sector, but no sign of broad-based acceleration in prices. The ECB can be patient. Image
Read 4 tweets
May 2, 2023
🇪🇺 Chartstorm on euro area bank lending data (March M3, credit and Bank Lending Survey).
In short: more tightening than expected and "persistent weakening" of loan dynamics.
Likely to cement the case for a step-down to 25bp ECB rate hike(s). 🧵 Image
The ECB's Bank Lending Survey was conducted between 22 March and 6 April, taking into account recent events.
Banks tightened further "substantially" their credit standards for loans to enterprises in Q1 (the largest such tightening since the sovereign debt crisis). Image
While banks expect a more moderate tightening going forward, demand for loans "decreased strongly" in Q1, with the main drags coming from higher interest rates and weaker investment prospects. Image
Read 9 tweets
Mar 27, 2023
🇪🇺 Euro area money supply growth is declining faster than expected (*before* the recent events).
M1 growth, including currency and overnight deposits, contracted by a record 2.7% in February.
Credit growth remained weak overall. 🧵
In real terms, M1 growth is now down 10% YoY, consistent with a collapse in economic growth. 😱
Now given the starting point for monetary policy and money supply, the old relationships may not hold. A key focus should be on the asset side of the banks' balance sheet.
Bank credit remained weak in February, down for loans to households and stabilising for loans to corporates. That was before the recent events, and the direction of travel looks clear. Question is much banks will tighten eventually (Bank Lending Survey out on 2 May will be key).
Read 5 tweets
Feb 2, 2023
🇪🇺 Yes, the ECB is going to hike rates by 50bp today, more than the Fed.
Yes, there's room for markets to re-price the terminal rate higher, above 3.50%.
But will it be a hawkish fireworks? Not so sure. 🧵
The hawkish reality check came in December, when the ECB committed to raising rates "significantly at a steady pace to reach levels that are sufficiently restrictive". The sentence should be adjusted as the ECB gets closer to peak rates.
The ECB is very likely to hint at another 50bp hike in March, but not beyond. There's a case to shift from a "steady pace" to a more moderate pace of tightening beyond March. @lagarde is likely to repeat that future decisions will be data-dependent (staff projections).
Read 7 tweets

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