Obviously, we should seek opportunities in individual #2020House districts in which there is not incumbent, or in which the incumbent is personally vulnerable.
But I suggest that we look at the idea of swing districts (and swing states) differently. Looking at 41 seats we gained in 2018, a few may have been because of individual vulnerability.
But overall, it shows a clear pattern – the denser (urban) a suburb, the more likely it was to swing. After 2018, you can see the variation among the districts:
The battle for control of the House (and indeed, swing states) is largely a battle for the suburbs. Of the 41 seats gained in 2018, 39 were suburban.
It is often noted that the GOP controls rural districts, while Democrats control the urban ones. That is mostly true, but they are only 104 (combined) of the 435 House seats. America is a suburban nation.
GOP Reps Trump Voters
Rural-suburban 77% 56%
Sparse Suburban 41% 47%
Dense suburban 19% 39%
Urban/Suburban 2% 26%
Rural-suburban 77% 56%
Sparse Suburban 41% 47%
Dense suburban 19% 39%
Urban/Suburban 2% 26%
After the impeachment vote, the GOP is targeting mostly those 39 House suburban freshman. But those districts voted Democratic because of sexist & racist tRuMp & the GOP. I suspect that it is the remaining 16 GOP dense-suburban districts Reps that are in trouble, not the Demos.
Our degree of success depended on the density of those suburbs. In part due to the concentration of minorities and college-educated women, the more urban, the more likely we were to win.
Though the rural suburbs are more likely to have a higher percentage of whites, and the dense suburbs a higher percentage of college-educated, those are only averages.
(I depend heavily here on a relatively new project by MIT. I describe that project below.)
The 1 GOP urban/suburban district remaining is FL-25, part Miami, part Everglades. It is heavily Cuban, who tend to vote GOP. Mario Diaz-Balart wins by large margins. However, he voted against impeachment. And Cubans tend to hate Russia. Go for it, @YadiraCongress.
Below are the 16 “dense suburban” still in GOP hands. All but one favor the GOP in ratings because of their history. I think in 2020 it’s time to crack history wide open.
@SuMoh7, @chelseahandler, @joncoopertweets, @joangreeneaz. @AnitaMalik, @hiral4congre, @Rimmer4Arizona, @michael_muscato, @PhilArballo202, @BobbyBliatout, @KimMangone, @Marston4ca, @LiamOMaraIV, @ACampaNajjar, @FreelandCD5, @JillSchupp, @karaforcongress, @Ann_Ashford
@Gladys4Congress, @TimHannan, @liuba4congress, @VoteJackie4NY, @ElisaCardnell, @travisolsen2020, @SimaforTX. @AlRobertsonTX03, @LorieB4Congress, @stephendaniel, @wendydavis, @JennieLouLeeder, @KimOlsonTx, @JanForCongress, @candacefor24
Notes on the CityLab project: The US population was required to be counted every 10 years, for the purpose of allocating the total number of representatives by state. (Article 1, Section 2). Except that each state has at least one representative, and DC has no voting reps.
A city is mostly a legal/ historical construct. Less than 20% of Americas live in its100 largest US cities. The OMB & Census Bureau use instead MSA, metropolitan statistical areas, which include the suburbs around the cities. The 40 largest MSA’s have half the US population.
The problem is that we tend to think in those terms – cities vote Democratic, rural areas Republican. That is pretty well true, and those there are a few exceptions (a few rural areas still vote Democratic).
Only 104 of 435 districts are either rural or urban. After the last House election, all the urban districts are Democratic, which 60 out of 70 of the rural districts are GOP.
The vast majority of American live in neither rural countryside nor downtown. but in the suburbs in between. The suburbs both elect the vast majority of Representatives, and the periodic shift in who controls the House will be decided by political opinion changes in the suburbs.
But it’s more complex than that. Because of districting & gerrymandering, not all suburbs will be are equal. Some are close-in, very dense suburbs, which tend to respond much as do city center themselves. The outer rim react more like rural areas. And variations in between.
@MIT @SenseableCity has developed @CityLabwhich divides the country into a variety of districts, based on their density of population. Since all districts have roughly the same population (except for smaller states) of 800K citizens in 2019
@MIT @SenseableCity Unlike the MSA’s, the CitLab map is divided, not by county (unless the districts are divided by county), but by Congressional districts. Their maps can be visually deceptive, because, of course, a city district is tiny.
You can see that there is a large swarth of states from Idaho to Georgia which is largely rural. But Blue states are more visually deceptive. If you looked at California, for example, most of the state land mass is rural-suburban, and you would suspect it was a GOP state.
Also, deceptive visually is that entire districts are colored the same.
It is unfortunate that we do not have these maps and statistics for past elections, because there is a good chance this division been a major factor in swing states and swing House districts for ages.
It is unfortunate that we do not have these maps and statistics for past elections, because there is a good chance this division been a major factor in swing states and swing House districts for ages.
We know, for example, in 2012, Obama won the close-in suburbs, while Romney won the more rural ones. So, the 2018 battle was very much was over the middle suburbs.
@threadreaderapp Unroll, please.
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
