Thread by @adamscrabble

🔥Quick thread explaining the China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). You've heard of it, but what is it? You'll be the expert, people will turn to you for answers, you'll make new friends. Lets begin...
In 2015 the “flagship” of China's Belt and Road Initiative was announced

its epicenter is a massive project linking China’s western Xinjiang region with Gwadar and its port in Pakistan’s Balochistan province. This would give China valuable access to the Arabian Sea.

The agreement called for Pakistan to develop 46 “Special Economic Zones” (SEZs) to be jointly managed by the “Pakistan-China Joint Cooperation Committee” and a panel of “experts” convened by Pakistan

The most promising SEZ and large infrastructure projects are in verious stages of (mostly) (in)completion:

Additionally, China will also spend $5.5 billion for a significant upgrade of Pakistan’s rail system.

In Pakistan criticism of the CPEC was not tolerated. In China, criticism by was countered by arguing closer economic relations would also deal with China’s security concerns, helping to stabilize and de-radicalize Pakistan, necessary for the success of the economic project.

The Pakistan Army was doing its bit to also give confidence to the Chinese by forcing China’s antagonists, the Uighur militants of North Waziristan, into Afghanistan in the military’s long running Zarb-e-Azb campaign.

Fast Forward to 2018
Pakistan presidential election produced a new PM, Imran Khan of the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf party

China favored a 2nd term for the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz led by Nawaz Sharif and due to his corruption charges, briefly by Shahid Khaqan Abbasi

CPEC was evidencing a slowdown in developments of the Special Economic Zones as allegations of corruption were toppling political dominos in Pakistan.

China changed its schedule for making money available:

Prior China would release loan payments before work on a CPEC project began
Now, China waits for project work to commence before releasing funds. Given that the Pakistani government does not have the funds to begin, the projects stall.

In 2019 Pakistan got +/-$2b in Chinese loans as a bridge while Pakistan was negotiating a +$7 billion loan from the IMF to settle Pakistan’s then urgent finance crisis. There is no transparency to the terms.

Pakistan has felt the tide turn as China further retreats from CPEC. In 2019, at the international “Financial Action Taskforce” meeting in February, China supported grey-listing Pakistan for failing to do enough to curb anti-terror financing.

IMF approved a $6b bailout package: Pakistan
a) Pakistan’s progress reviewed quarterly for 39 months
b) Pakistan agreed to increase taxation
c) Pakistan must increase FOREX reserves to $11b next year
d) Pakistan must pay off its $37b in external debt. Pakistan owes $14b to China

That same month the Pakistan government convened an 11-member Commission of Inquiry to determine if increase in public debt between 2008 and 2018 was justified by infrastructure development program or misused by public office-holders

The Terrors of CPEC
Due to terror concerns, the Pakistan military presence was enhanced in Gwadar, making the entire town a military cantonment.

Baloch nationalists are a separatist movement from Pakistan’s Balochistan province, the home of the Gwadar port

2014 Taliban kill 145 in Peshawar (non Balochistan attack)
2018 149 people killed in Mastung, a province of Balochistan
2019, 14 killed in Balochistan
2019, Baloch militants killed 5 people at the Pearl Continental hotel in Gwadar
And here we are...

Now that you know the big picture of the China Pakistan Economic Corridor you should use any means necessary to lure the unsuspecting into an argument about it. Then win!
Have a fantastic 2020, be excited.

Update December 2020: What i told you exactly one year ago today is breaking news 🤣 asiatimes.com/2020/12/china-…

January 2021 this happened ⚡️shocking, eh? 🤣

"The other major disagreement between Beijing and Islamabad delaying the JCC meeting relates to SEZs..."
s.nikkei.com/2YRJnLX