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Thomas Juneau Profile picture
@thomasjuneau
Jan 3, 2020 • 4 tweets • 1 min read • Read on X
Iran will retaliate but my guess: its response will be calibrated, not right away, and probably include targeting Saudi (among others):
-not now: Iran knows it loses at escalation; Trump has shown he will escalate; Iran wants to avoid escalation
-against the US? Trump... (1/4)
...has shown he hits back harder and fast. So very likely, but contained (cyber?) impact
-Israel? quite possible, but Israel also hits back hard, has very good intelligence on Iranian assets in Syria and elsewhere, and is superior militarily. And Netannyahu, vulnerable... (2/4)
...domestically, will not hesitate to respond
-UAE? less likely. Iran is very pragmatic in its ties to Dubai and Abu Dhabi, and may want to continue driving a wedge between UAE and Saudi/US
-so Saudi? more likely. Saudi cannot win at escalation with Iran. And Iran knows... (3/4)
...that in the current domestic climate in the US, where Saudi is very unpopular, in both parties, responding on behalf of Riyadh would be difficult (though not impossible) politically. (end)

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More from @thomasjuneau

Thomas Juneau Profile picture
Nov 7, 2022
As the Islamic Republic becomes more vulnerable, the US & allies need to support the democratic opposition. But they also need to be careful not to support the wrong actors, which is exactly what @TonyclementCPC does here; the MeK is illegitimate & corrupt
nationalpost.com/opinion/tony-c…
This is important: the US & allies have repeatedly made mistakes in the past in supporting the wrong opposition actors, including loud exiled groups with well-oiled PR machines. The danger is that MeK (and others) will crowd out those who deserve to be heard and receive support. Image
This illustrates a persistent pathology of much of western foreign policy: we try to apply a broad ideology while being totally ignorant of actual conditions on the ground. The idea that the MeK is a legitimate alternative is absolute BS. The group has zero support inside Iran. Image
Read 4 tweets
Thomas Juneau Profile picture
Feb 14, 2022
Back from the Ottawa protests. Tweeting this from the office because it is minus 29 outside (= tabarnak qui fait frette). Fairly small size today, not surprisingly. Slightly more entrenched than last week (supply tents, tightly parked trucks perpendicular to the street). Thread.
Towing these away will be hard
Still your usual mix of bad analogies. No, Canada is not a communist state.
Read 15 tweets
Thomas Juneau Profile picture
Feb 10, 2022
This article refers to "Tom Quiggin, a former military intelligence officer who also worked with the RCMP and was considered one the country's top counter-terrorism experts".

No - he left years ago & is widely viewed in the intelligence community as an islamophobe & a buffoon.
I mean
Good example of the kind of character we are talking about here:
Read 4 tweets
Thomas Juneau Profile picture
Jul 13, 2021
Every year Canadian politicians (Harper, Baird) attend the MeK summit. The media then quote them as attending an "international conference" of an "opposition group". But the MeK is a former terrorist group and a cult hated in Iran, not a partner in the fight for democracy there.
Supporting democracy/human rights in Iran and opposing the Islamic Republic is the right thing to do. But to partner with the MeK is counter-productive. Yes, it allows these politicians to tick the "tough on Iran" box for domestic purposes.
cbc.ca/news/politics/…
(It also reportedly pays well, according to multiple media stories).

But history should teach us that allying with the wrong groups, like the MeK, does not advance the cause of democracy and can backfire. There are real democracy activists inside Iran - they deserve support.
Read 6 tweets
Thomas Juneau Profile picture
Jul 10, 2021
It's that time of the year when the MeK, a thuggish cult based in Albania with zero support inside Iran, has its annual summit, where well paid western politicians show up to pretend they support democracy in Iran.
Former Canadian Prime Minister Stephen Harper among the speakers at the MeK summit (not for the first time):

Reminder: you are not supporting the actual cause of democracy and human rights in Iran - a noble cause - by endorsing the MeK, a group that is not democratic by any stretch of the imagination and that has no legitimacy beyond aging Iranian exiles
Read 22 tweets
Thomas Juneau Profile picture
Feb 27, 2021
Insane story by @SarahDadouch, of a Saudi dissident who vanished in Canada.
-This is part of a pattern of pressure on and kidnapping of exiled Saudi dissidents - including, not for the first time, in Canada
-Al Harbi has a lot of information... (1/4)

washingtonpost.com/world/middle_e…
...on other Saudi dissidents in Canada and elsewhere - phone numbers, identities, etc. This can be useful for Saudi security services to try to hack their phones and pressure their families inside Saudi Arabia.
-Not that there was serious doubt, but this story shows that... (2/4)
... the growing foreign policy assertiveness under MbS may have toned down a bit since its peak in 2017/18 (Qatar blockade, kidnapping of Lebanese PM, dispute with Canada, Yemen war...) but clearly continues... (3/4)

For background on Canada-Saudi ties:
washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-ca…
Read 4 tweets

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