Professor, @uottawagspia. Focus on Middle East (Iran, Yemen), security & intelligence. Former department of national defence analyst.
Nov 7, 2022 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
As the Islamic Republic becomes more vulnerable, the US & allies need to support the democratic opposition. But they also need to be careful not to support the wrong actors, which is exactly what @TonyclementCPC does here; the MeK is illegitimate & corrupt nationalpost.com/opinion/tony-c…
This is important: the US & allies have repeatedly made mistakes in the past in supporting the wrong opposition actors, including loud exiled groups with well-oiled PR machines. The danger is that MeK (and others) will crowd out those who deserve to be heard and receive support.
Feb 14, 2022 • 15 tweets • 4 min read
Back from the Ottawa protests. Tweeting this from the office because it is minus 29 outside (= tabarnak qui fait frette). Fairly small size today, not surprisingly. Slightly more entrenched than last week (supply tents, tightly parked trucks perpendicular to the street). Thread.
Towing these away will be hard
Feb 10, 2022 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
This article refers to "Tom Quiggin, a former military intelligence officer who also worked with the RCMP and was considered one the country's top counter-terrorism experts".
No - he left years ago & is widely viewed in the intelligence community as an islamophobe & a buffoon.
Every year Canadian politicians (Harper, Baird) attend the MeK summit. The media then quote them as attending an "international conference" of an "opposition group". But the MeK is a former terrorist group and a cult hated in Iran, not a partner in the fight for democracy there.
Supporting democracy/human rights in Iran and opposing the Islamic Republic is the right thing to do. But to partner with the MeK is counter-productive. Yes, it allows these politicians to tick the "tough on Iran" box for domestic purposes. cbc.ca/news/politics/…
Jul 10, 2021 • 22 tweets • 6 min read
It's that time of the year when the MeK, a thuggish cult based in Albania with zero support inside Iran, has its annual summit, where well paid western politicians show up to pretend they support democracy in Iran.
Insane story by @SarahDadouch, of a Saudi dissident who vanished in Canada.
-This is part of a pattern of pressure on and kidnapping of exiled Saudi dissidents - including, not for the first time, in Canada
-Al Harbi has a lot of information... (1/4)
washingtonpost.com/world/middle_e…
...on other Saudi dissidents in Canada and elsewhere - phone numbers, identities, etc. This can be useful for Saudi security services to try to hack their phones and pressure their families inside Saudi Arabia.
-Not that there was serious doubt, but this story shows that... (2/4)
Feb 25, 2021 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
So - Biden finally spoke to Saudi King Salman today. Excerpts, with quick take (1/6): 1. "...address the longstanding partnership": this is meaningful - the statement is full of signals from Biden that this is a deep relationship that will continue.
whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/…2. "they discussed regional security, including the... efforts led by the UN and the US to end the war in Yemen": two things here, an emphasis the US is leading these efforts (which it was not before), and, by saying this is as the 1st item, a signal it is the top priority.
Aug 28, 2020 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
Canada needs to seriously plan for the possibility that the US will not be a liberal democracy anymore. This is not fear-mongering, but a real prospect. A Trump victory in November would be a generational game changer for our security, stability, and prosperity.
And, just to stay on the gloomy side, even if Biden wins, Canada (and the rest of the world) will have to live with the reality that at least 40% of Americans support, and will no doubt continue to support, his Trumpist agenda. That shit is not going to just disappear.
Jul 2, 2020 • 5 tweets • 1 min read
I have a new article in Comparative Strategy: was Obama a realist? many have said this, approvingly or critically; I evaluated his policies in the Middle East to test the claim.
Answer: Only partly. His policy was somewhat prudent and restrained... (1/5)
tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.10…
..., especially in comparison with his immediate predecessor, but it also featured much continuity with the past.
He exercised restraint in the use of force, notably in resisting pressure to intervene in Syria. His policy towards IS was mostly sound. He recognized the threat...
Jun 3, 2020 • 22 tweets • 8 min read
There is growing attention to the case of Saad al-Jabri, a former high ranking Saudi official who has fled to Canada. Two of his kids are apparently jailed in Saudi to pressure him to return. Here is a quick recap of what we know with links to key articles.
-The first piece to raise the issue back in March is this by @daniaakkad (his name had come up in the media before, but this is the first to link him to Canada as far as I know, though I may be wrong).
There have been recent reports on Iran's role in Syria: that it has cost $20-30 billion since 2011 and that Iran "wants some of that back", and that Iran may be withdrawing. Quick thread on this.
-$20-30 billion cost? Just because an Iranian MP said this... (1/8)
...does not make it true. But the number (about $2-3 billion/year) is plausible given what we know of Iran's involvement.
-Contrast that to Saudi Arabia's cost of maybe $2-3 billion per *month" in Yemen (maybe more) and you get an idea of the spectacular ineffectiveness... (2/)
Jan 8, 2020 • 8 tweets • 3 min read
My hypothesis on tonight:
-Iran knows every inch of Al-Asad and Erbil bases & knew US troops were secure; it purposely avoided them. Its short range missiles are precise enough to do that. Iran is fine with Iraqi casualties (it's happy to fight the US to the last Iraqi) (1/3)
-Iran gambled this would *not* trigger a US reponse
-remember, Iran absolutely wants to avoid an escalation it knows it would lose
-I wouldn't even be surpised if Iran signaled this to the US through some backchannel tonight (2/3)
Jan 4, 2020 • 24 tweets • 5 min read
So was the assassination of Soleimani a good idea? At this point, no one knows; anyone who says yes or no is giving you an ideologically-based answer, not an evidence-based one. We need time to see how the pros and cons evolve; quick thread on this.
The most obvious, and clearly important, benefit: Soleimani, a powerful adversary who was directly and indirectly responsible for a very, very long list of atrocities, violent actions, terrorist attacks, etc., is gone. That is a net benefit, and a major one.
Jan 3, 2020 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
Iran will retaliate but my guess: its response will be calibrated, not right away, and probably include targeting Saudi (among others):
-not now: Iran knows it loses at escalation; Trump has shown he will escalate; Iran wants to avoid escalation
-against the US? Trump... (1/4)
...has shown he hits back harder and fast. So very likely, but contained (cyber?) impact
-Israel? quite possible, but Israel also hits back hard, has very good intelligence on Iranian assets in Syria and elsewhere, and is superior militarily. And Netannyahu, vulnerable... (2/4)
Jul 13, 2019 • 17 tweets • 6 min read
Former Canadian PM Stephen Harper addresses MeK event in Albania, refers to its role in working for change in Iran.
The MeK is a corrupt, thuggish cult with no support in Iran. It is neither viable nor democratic. It is moral failure & strategic lunacy for Harper to endorse it.
To get an idea of the absurdity: Rudy Giuliani, another speaker, claims the MeK is democratic and not a cult - and then the camera shifts to the crowd, where hundreds of perfectly lined up women dressed identically clap (see video from seconds 10 to 20).
The media should play a key role in a democracy overseeing national security agencies, but NOT in this case. Bad journalism, playing on conspiracy theories and misinformation that applies to other countries and eras but not Canada today (short thread):
thestar.com/opinion/star-c…
-environmental groups were not "prime targets"; there is no evidence of that. They are overstretched and deal with far, far more important issues. There is *no* evidnce CSIS was "vigorously spying" on them
Apr 29, 2019 • 40 tweets • 12 min read
Over the next couple days, the amazing @b_momani and I are hosting a workshop in preparation for a forthcoming book on Canada and the Middle East. This thread introduces the participants, and will be updated until the end.
Panel 1 chapter authors on regional security: @AmarAmarasingam@StephanieCarvin on foreign fighters, @justinmassie1 and Marco Munier on the coalition against the Islamic State, @MikeFleet23 and @NizarMohamad1 on capacity building programs.
Apr 6, 2019 • 19 tweets • 5 min read
The US is considering listing the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), one of Iran's two armed forces, as a terrorist organization. This is a bad idea, and one that is incredibly difficult to implement in practice. Short thread. wsj.com/articles/u-s-t…
Why it's a bad idea: see @ArianeTabatabai on how it actually reinforces hard-liners in Iran. Other good arguments against the listing: it paves the way for war with Iran (very bad idea) and exposes US troops (which is why many in the Pentagon oppose). theatlantic.com/international/…
Apr 1, 2019 • 11 tweets • 3 min read
I have a new article with @PSQuarterly on the JCPOA. The article is available in open access here; below is a quick thread on why I explain in the article that those who argue that Iran emerged as the clear winner from the JCPOA are wrong. (1/11)
onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.10…
Did Iran emerge as the winner from the nuclear deal it agreed to with the P5+1 in July 2015? According to critics, the answer is yes: the JCPOA lifted restrictions on Iran and allowed it to enhance its position as a dominant player in the Middle East. (2)
Jan 21, 2019 • 17 tweets • 3 min read
During the 2015 election campaign the Liberals pledged to reestablish diplomatic ties between Canada and Iran, severed by the Harper government. In a new article based on 23 interviews for Canadian Foreign Policy, I explain why this did not happen. Thread. tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.10…
In 2012, the Conservative Government expelled the Iranian ambassador, recalled the Canadian one (the same one who was expelled from Saudi Arabia in 2018!!) and suspended ties. The Liberals pledged to change this. The government was making some progress: throughout 2016-17...
Jan 15, 2019 • 7 tweets • 2 min read
Last night on CBC's The National, I said that the Canadian government is "milking" the case of the young Saudi who arrived here. A couple points of context.
-This was a 10 second clip from a 12 minute interview in which I also said there were other motives behind the decision...
...including that it is the right thing to do, and that it is consistent with the Trudeau government's efforts to develop a feminist and progressive foreign policy - so a way to walk what has often been criticized for being mostly talk.
