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HRouge Profile picture
@hareng_rouge
Jan 6, 2020 • 11 tweets • 6 min read • Read on X
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What a difference a year makes.. but an albatross is still an albatross although #BOKU are coming to discover that theirs performs more like a turkey Image
What a difference a week makes.. #BOKU

I've noticed this with the UK market and it isn't just Boku: you get told one thing in one form of words, then later on the same thing in a different form of words and the market reacts as if it's new. Image
Here are this year's results from #BOKU:

Payments 19: $43.5M (+23%) / TPV $5.0B (+38%) = 0.87%
Payments 18: $35.3M (+44%) / TPV $3.6B (+112%) = 0.98%
Payments 17: $24.4M / TPV $1.7B = 1.44%
"Scale is not just about bragging rights.. Despite the fact that volumes have increased so fast, operating expenses have stayed reasonably stable. The incremental cost of processing each new extra transaction is negligible. New revenue falls through to the bottom line." Image
Amongst the blizzard of BS ("The World is Flat, and Hedgehogs are beating Foxes") in the #BOKU results, I can't pretend I know what "adjustment for previous year cash items" actually means but suppose the headline figures look a touch better for it. Image
Having spent the last couple of years constructively shitposting on Boku, I think the acquisition that they just announced may be something quite interesting.

The figures are buried in pages 5 & 6 of this inviting looking announcement ImageImage
Here are those numbers, along with their results naively glommed onto Boku's ImageImage
Fortumo is another DCB biz and as you see, it appears to be very profitable compared to others in the space as well as the parent.

Googling around, there's quite a bit of (positive) newsflow around this company; a fortnight ago - payments for Fortnite

forte.delfi.ee/news/tarkvara/…
#BOKU update

Payments H1/20: $22M (+14%) / TPV $3.1B (+36%) = 0.71%

Usual selection of jazz quotes, s-curve references and nonsense.

"The company has seen a boost in the adoption of digital services during the pandemic "

ID / Danal still a disaster

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More from @hareng_rouge

HRouge Profile picture
Dec 22, 2021
$RADA makes small tactical military radars. The recent sell off hasn't made it cheap but it has begun to bring it closer to GARP territory

It's a rare pure-play on a theme that's perhaps not yet widely appreciated and is hard to access directly but you can see it in the numbers
Here's where it trades on a forward sales multiple against some of the big diversified defence majors - has lost much of the premium and now sits a little off the top end. Brits bottom of the pile.
Same group of majors but here on forward EBITDA multiples and towards the bottom end excluding the UK companies.
Read 19 tweets
HRouge Profile picture
Nov 12, 2021
Naive view but I think Hunting #HTG may be on its way back to Covid lows because it's orphaned on the wrong market and there's an information disconnect - if so, my guess is that it's pretty oversold here. Image
The company isn't a pure play but it's good enough to say it's very shale exposed, towards the completion side vs the drilling side of things.

Three year chart to around May 2021: HTG in green vs several US oil services ETFs - as you can see, they trade in lockstep. Image
Same chart but on a 2021 YTD basis and it starts diverging somewhere around mid summer. Image
Read 15 tweets
HRouge Profile picture
Nov 9, 2021
IG Design #IGR was a ten bagger in the 5 years leading up to Covid. An update a fortnight ago dropped the shares by half and erased all the gains in the most recent five years. Knife catching and broken growth this soon is almost always a mistake but IG may be an exception here. ImageImageImage
My basic premise with it is that the accounts are a complicated nightmare (CTRL+f for "adjust" is 232 hits in the last FY report) but most immediately, that this is right now a gross margin story - I think there are grounds to at least consider whether IG can be given a pass here
Unfortunately, it does mean walking through it so grab a.. (just no) so anyway, here's the rough idea: Pre-covid in white, M&A growth darling, 20% gross margins. Forget the op margin for now - I'm stripping out the adjustments that made adjusted whatever go up and to the right Image
Read 20 tweets
HRouge Profile picture
Oct 5, 2021
Saw a one-line tweet the other day mentioning McColls #MCLS as one of 2 highest conviction names.

I think I see why: there's a metamorphosis happening underneath and reasonable path to PE and FCF multiples between 2-3 plus a growth narrative, all under that lovely grim exterior
Story is that they're shrinking. 1500+ stores 2 years back, to 1050 by the end of FY21

Also changing: culling small newsagent shops to focus towards larger, more profitable grocery-heavy stores. So far, so worthy - but the real interest is the transformation into Morrisons Daily
Company raised recently to accelerate a programme converting 350 stores into these Mini Morrisons. They're at 56 today, will be 350 by end FY22

Cost is £90K per shop, what they call "cash payback" is 2-3 years and so far they're providing pretty immediate LFL sales growth of 25%
Read 12 tweets
HRouge Profile picture
Sep 23, 2021
What does Sneller see to get such sudden FOMO for the old zombie that is Iofina #IOF? If you recall the name, it should produce revulsion but a few things have changed and there's a chance it may be about to make some money. ImageImage
IOF produces Iodine in the US via O&G brine. Iodine is a beneficiary of industrial recovery generally and covid specifically - the largest use is used as x-ray contrast which may benefit demand from catch up on delayed hospital treatment.

And because it's 2021, inevitably: Image
Production is trapped on the wrong side of the Pacific: the two major production centres are Japan and Chile - so you have the obvious logistics issues for both and potentially politics for the latter.
Read 12 tweets
HRouge Profile picture
Aug 20, 2021
I think it's worth revisiting Aquis #AQX here in light of a couple of data points that have since come out.

There are three main parts to the co: a stock exchange (AQSE); a tech licencing biz and their multilateral trading facility (AQXE) - it's this last one I want to look at.
First is the RNS from earlier this month announcing their MTF (investopedia.com/terms/m/multil…) had achieved 6.2% market share. Across the €53.6B traded on AQXE in July, this came out to €1.7B a day.

Those 6.2% and €1.7B are quite significant numbers and I'll come back to them later Image
In the period since the beginning of 2018 market share has risen from 1.72% to that 6.2% above. Here's how that value traded looks. Image
Read 15 tweets

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