Breaking: US increasingly believes Iran mistakenly shot down Ukrainian airliner Tuesday, multiple US officials tell CNN. Assessment based on continuing analysis of satellite, radar & electronic data collected by US military & IC. W/my colleagues @barbarastarrcnn@PamelaBrownCNN
This has enormous implications for the Iranian government. Half the passengers were Iranians. (Many Canadians as well). And Iranian leaders are still excoriating the US for accidental shoot-down of an Iranian airliner in 1988.
Punctures in fuselage indicating possible explosion outside the aircraft (as would occur with a missile) had already attracted the attention of some investigators. Similar marks were visible on wreckage of MH17.
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Breaking: Travis McMichael - the man who shot and killed Ahmaud Arbery - has been found guilty on all nine charges in the jogger’s death.
More: Gregory McMichael, one of three men accused of killing 25-year-old Ahmaud Arbery, has been found guilty of felony murder. McMichael now faces a maximum sentence of life in prison without the possibility of parole.
William “Roddie” Bryan Jr., who filmed Arbery’s murder, has been found guilty of felony murder. Bryan now faces a maximum sentence of life in prison without the possibility of parole.
Breaking: "U.S. Space Command is aware of a debris-generating event in outer space. We are actively working to characterize the debris field and will continue to ensure all space-faring nations have the information necessary to maneuver satellites if impacted.” - US Space Command
More: The US is very concerned about a major Russian anti-satellite weapons test conducted over the weekend and the State Department is preparing to put out a statement on the matter today, two US officials tell me and my colleague @kylieatwood
Remember: debris is still orbiting from China’s 2007 anti-sat test. And space debris is an equal-opportunity threat to all nations’ space assets.
Two very big events took place between the US and China in the last two months - thousands of miles away but central to the most crucial relationship in the world today. Where? Afghanistan and Australia. Let me explain. 1/
2/ The US withdrawal from Afghanistan emboldens China. It makes Beijing question US willingness to fight abroad and its commitment to allies. I’ve heard deep concern from China experts on how this might encourage Xi to calculate he can take Taiwan - a priority for him - …
3/ …with less risk of a forceful US military response. Xi of course can over-read the signals. But over-reading does not prevent a bad outcome. It might even increase the chances of conflict because China underestimates the US commitment to Taiwan. See Saddam and Kuwait.
Note this: Milley’s communications with China were not unusual. As I reported in Aug 2020, Trump’s advisers warned Iran and North Korea over fears he would start a war. See here: 1/ cnn.com/2020/08/06/pol…
2/From “The Madman Theory”: "We used to only think of Kim Jong Un as unpredictable. Now we had Trump as unpredictable," Joseph Yun, who served as President Trump's special representative for North Korea policy until 2018, told me. "And I would communicate that."
3/And on Iran: "We told allies that we did not know what the President would be willing to do against Iran," Mick Mulroy, deputy assistant secretary of defense for the Middle East until 2019, recalled. "It was possible he could make a decision that would lead to an escalation..”
19 years and 8 months ago, I landed at Bagram Air Field outside Kabul with then SecDef Rumsfeld and a handful of reporters including @NorahODonnell & @BretBaier - covering the first US official visit since the start of military operations. 1/
2/ I remember a barren landscape, mortar holes in the hangar roof and one Spec Ops soldier on an ATV. The mission then was to neutralize Al Qaeda and end Taliban control of Afghanistan. In the years that followed, American ambitions grew, though without an explicit declaration.
3/ The US would help build the Afghan economy, for one and ween it off the opium crop. I remember a US General talking up alternative Afghan crops from nuts to flowers. The US would help build a democratically-elected government too. Elections became massive security operations.