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Jim Sciutto

16 Sep, 7 tweets, 2 min read

Two very big events took place between the US and China in the last two months - thousands of miles away but central to the most crucial relationship in the world today. Where? Afghanistan and Australia. Let me explain. 1/

2/ The US withdrawal from Afghanistan emboldens China. It makes Beijing question US willingness to fight abroad and its commitment to allies. I’ve heard deep concern from China experts on how this might encourage Xi to calculate he can take Taiwan - a priority for him - …

3/ …with less risk of a forceful US military response. Xi of course can over-read the signals. But over-reading does not prevent a bad outcome. It might even increase the chances of conflict because China underestimates the US commitment to Taiwan. See Saddam and Kuwait.

4/ Then comes the US and UK agreement to share sensitive nuclear submarine technology with Australia. Do not underestimate what a reach this is for the US. Washington has shared this capability with only one ally over the last several decades - the UK - to counter an adversary…

5/ …which was and remains an existential threat: the USSR, now Russia. That is, an adversary with the capability to literally wipe the US off the map. Australian leaders had said they need not choose between the US and China. But Chinese aggressiveness in recent years, incl…

6/ ..detaining Australian citizens and cutting imports to force Australian concessions helped change Australia’s calculus. Plus, Canberra appears to have chosen the US as the winning horse in this contest. That’s no small thing for the US.

7/ Both events have enormous potential impact on the US-China relationship and on the chances of war - which US officials and military leaders increasing view as a question of when, not if. This remains the defining relationship of our time. Any thoughts/reactions?

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Jim Sciutto

@jimsciutto

16 Sep

Note this: Milley’s communications with China were not unusual. As I reported in Aug 2020, Trump’s advisers warned Iran and North Korea over fears he would start a war. See here: 1/ cnn.com/2020/08/06/pol…

2/From “The Madman Theory”: "We used to only think of Kim Jong Un as unpredictable. Now we had Trump as unpredictable," Joseph Yun, who served as President Trump's special representative for North Korea policy until 2018, told me. "And I would communicate that."

3/And on Iran: "We told allies that we did not know what the President would be willing to do against Iran," Mick Mulroy, deputy assistant secretary of defense for the Middle East until 2019, recalled. "It was possible he could make a decision that would lead to an escalation..”

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30 Aug

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19 years and 8 months ago, I landed at Bagram Air Field outside Kabul with then SecDef Rumsfeld and a handful of reporters including @NorahODonnell & @BretBaier - covering the first US official visit since the start of military operations. 1/

2/ I remember a barren landscape, mortar holes in the hangar roof and one Spec Ops soldier on an ATV. The mission then was to neutralize Al Qaeda and end Taliban control of Afghanistan. In the years that followed, American ambitions grew, though without an explicit declaration.

3/ The US would help build the Afghan economy, for one and ween it off the opium crop. I remember a US General talking up alternative Afghan crops from nuts to flowers. The US would help build a democratically-elected government too. Elections became massive security operations.

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27 Aug

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A personal story on @USMC and how they fight: in 2008, I was embedded with US Marines in Helmand province. On our way in, our convoy was hit by an IED. I remember seeing - but not hearing - the wheel of the lead humvee flying into the air. 1/

2/ Immediately after, the gunfire started. It’s the normal flow of a complex attack: explosion then gunfire. Four Marines in the lead humvee were injured & the convoy was under fire. But the Marines sprang into action. They delivered first aid to their fellow service-members.

3/ They returned fire. A medevac helicopter evacuated the wounded. And they protected us. All at the same time and all at great danger to themselves. And then - once the attack was over - the convoy rolled on and the Marines continued their mission.

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Jim Sciutto

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7 Aug

Americans now promoting or dreaming of fascism as a model for the US need to spend time in a fascist country: to witness how such governments lie to their citizens, steal from them, punish, imprison and kill critics and opponents, and aggrandize power to their own interests.

I’ve spent much of my career covering fascism and authoritarianism from China to Russia to Zimbabwe and beyond. There’s no need even to study the history books - though it would help - because these govts are alive and well today. Americans who praise their leaders - see Trump 2/

3/ Or do their PR - see Tucker Carlson - are either ignorant of the facts or envious of their power and control or perhaps both. Nothing of fascism is consistent with American principles of government. That this has become a partisan issue is deeply alarming.

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