This striking pattern of Trump under-performing his poll numbers continues. According to 538, Trump was meant to win:
- Massachusetts by 37 (NYT says he's up by 23)
- Tennessee by 69 (he's up 57)
- Texas by 64 (he's up 56)
- Virginia by 49 (he's up by 29)
The exception:
- North Carolina by 46 (he's up 51)
Plus in those states with more sparse polling there's no 538 average. But the final Trump-Haley poll suggested Trump would win:
- Alabama by 75 (he's up 68)
- Oklahoma by 77 (he's up 66)
- Maine 58 by (he's up 47)
- Minnesota by 64 (he's up 41)
- Utah by 27 (he's up 14)
Most striking, of course, is Vermont.
There were two polls, and they put Trump up by +30 and +28, respectively. At this point the NYT says Haley will win, by about 4 points.
Yes kids, we are: The inflation measure the Fed targets (core PCE) has run at an annualized rate of 1.9% over the past six months, *below* the Fed's two percent target.
This isn't a one-off blip; it's six months of sustained low inflation.
Core PCE inflation over the past year was 3.2%, but that tells us a lot about what was happening in late 2022.
Over the past 6 months, inflation was 1.9%; over the prior 6 months it was 4.5%. As those high rates "fall out" of the 12 month window, year-ended inflation will fall.
Inflation is now lower than when President Biden took office.
There's no question people are telling pollsters they're miserable about the economy. But riddle me this: Why can't we find evidence of this pessimism in anything other that public opinion polls?
Every non-poll based indicator of confidence suggests folks are optimistic [thread]
Take consumption. If folks were worried about their economic future, you might think they would be squirrelling money away for the hard times coming. But they're spending like they expect ongoing economic strength.
Or investment. If our future were grim, businesses wouldn't want to invest to serve a shrinking market. But they're investing at robust rates.
Let's start with the claim "uncooked turkey" is 7.2% more expensive. That's actually the CPI for a broader category of "other uncooked poultry" which includes Turkey.
But turkeys? The USDA says the retail price of fresh Hens is down -7.6% and fresh Toms are down -8.1%
The observation that retail turkey prices is down is confirmed by the Farm Bureau, which says they're down -5.6%. fb.org/news-release/c…
An absolutely bonkers example of the bad-news bias (and a failure to take Econ 101) in econ reporting: The @WSJ observes that the price of metals used in electric vehicles are crashing, and somehow infers that it will create shortages and snarl adoption of EV's.
The best part: The headline assures us that this is bad for Biden.
But to be clear, it's not just a bad news bias: It's also bad economics.
"Oh no, my product will definitely fail because my input costs are too low," said no producer ever.
Headline inflation was literally zero -- on average, prices were the same in October as September.
Over the year, headline inflation is 3.2%, beating expectations of 3.3%.
The decline in headline inflation is partly due to falling gas prices.
Want to know where inflation is going?
You're better off focusing on core inflation (ex food and energy), which was 0.2% last month, and 4.0% over the past year. Again, better than the markets expected.
The past five core inflation readings have been remarkably good:
June: +0.2%
July: +0.2%
August: +0.3%
Sept: +0.3%
Oct: +0.2%
If monthly inflation is 0.2% half the time, and 0.3% the other half, that yields an annualized inflation rate of three percent.