Final session of #RaisinaDialogue2020 with Australia’s foreign minister Marise Payne, India’s foreign secretary Vijay Gokhale, US deputy national security adviser Matt Pottinger, and Finland’s permanent secretary of defence Jukka Justi.
Pottinger: We’ve recently expanded our definition of the Indo-Pacific so that it now aligns with India’s. Includes East Africa and Gulf: from California to Kilimanjaro. #RaisinaDialogue2020
In context of Lavrov’s criticism of the Indo-Pacific as a divisive American construct, Gokhale agrees with Pottinger that Indo-Pacific is of the region, that it is democratic (and thus open to disagreement) and inclusive. Our aid projects not imposed. #RaisinaDialogue2020
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THREAD: As an outsider observing my 5th U.S. presidential election firsthand, thought I'd share 10 quick observations on polling, campaigning, counting, etc. as the campaigns enter the final stretch:
1. Is Trump still 'underpolling'?
2. The social media bubble phenomenon is changing in some unpredictable ways.
.@samirsaran & I visited Mexico City 🇲🇽 this week, where we were fortunate to meet with senior diplomats and politicians, Mexican business leaders, university deans, and civil society.
I thought I’d share 5 curious India-Mexico connections that you probably didn’t know. 🇮🇳 🇲🇽
1. The Bengali revolutionary MN Roy, somewhat remarkably, founded communist parties in both Mexico and India.
Today, there’s an underground club named after him in the trendy Roma neighbourhood.
2. There’s a statue commemorating Gandhiji in Chapultepec Park in central Mexico City.
Gandhi-ji is also the inspiration behind a popular chain of bookstores in Mexico.
THREAD: I took part in a fascinating discussion today on I2U2 and IMEC, with (non-official) participants from India, the U.S., Israel, and UAE. Timely given the turbulence in the Middle East.
It was not-for-attribution, so I'll just share a few of my observations:
1. The strategic backdrop in a post-Arab Spring region is:
a. a resurgence of nationalism over pan-Arabism or pan-Islamism
b. concerns in the Gulf about expanding Iranian influence (e.g. in Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, Yemen).
2. There's also been a regional turn to a 'new non-alignment': a willingness to explore economic and strategic options with other powers (China, Russia, India, France, etc.) while trying to maintain ties - especially defense ties - with the United States. Easier said than done.
“I am become Death, destroyer of worlds.” A short thread on Robert Oppenheimer, the Bhagavad Gita, and the poetry of the nuclear age.
J. Robert Oppenheimer, often characterized as the father of the American nuclear bomb, is the subject of a much-anticipated Christopher Nolan biopic being released this summer.
Here’s the trailer:
In his younger days, Oppenheimer was introduced to Sanskrit by Arthur W. Ryder, professor at Berkeley, and began to take weekly tutorials.
He became fascinated by the Bhagavad Gita in particular, calling it “the most beautiful philosophical song existing in any known tongue.”
THREAD: Over the past few weeks, I’ve attended a half dozen conferences – mostly in India – during which I met with military, business, and policy leaders from at least 50 countries. Some impressions on:
1.The Russia-Ukraine War
2.Views of the Indian economy
3.The Global South
(For those interested, I did a similar conference roundup thread last summer:)
1. RUSSIA/UKRAINE: The general expectation remains that the war will be a drawn out affair, and this year will be particularly violent. Nuclear concerns have subsided somewhat, as has intra-NATO quibbling over supplying military equipment to Ukraine.
THREAD: I’ve spent the last week focused on India-U.S. 🇮🇳🇺🇸 relations, in numerous conversations with people in both countries' governments, business communities, strategic commentariat, private foundations, and media.
I thought I would share 12 general impressions:
1. India-U.S. official dialogue on matters to India’s east is really advanced. Virtually nothing is off the table and there is a high degree of trust. There are long-term concerns about the maritime domain in particular, which will assume different forms in the coming decades.
2. India-U.S. coordination is taking different forms. The Quad is most definitely not NATO (and shouldn’t be conflated with it) but is vital for coordination. You’ll hear a lot more acronyms beginning with ‘I’ bandied about: ICET, IPEF, IPMDA, I2U2, IPOI, etc.