THREAD: As an outsider observing my 5th U.S. presidential election firsthand, thought I'd share 10 quick observations on polling, campaigning, counting, etc. as the campaigns enter the final stretch:


1. Is Trump still 'underpolling'?

.@samirsaran & I visited Mexico City 🇲🇽 this week, where we were fortunate to meet with senior diplomats and politicians, Mexican business leaders, university deans, and civil society.

I thought I’d share 5 curious India-Mexico connections that you probably didn’t know. 🇮🇳 🇲🇽 1. The Bengali revolutionary MN Roy, somewhat remarkably, founded communist parties in both Mexico and India.

Today, there’s an underground club named after him in the trendy Roma neighbourhood.

THREAD: I took part in a fascinating discussion today on I2U2 and IMEC, with (non-official) participants from India, the U.S., Israel, and UAE. Timely given the turbulence in the Middle East.

It was not-for-attribution, so I'll just share a few of my observations: 1. The strategic backdrop in a post-Arab Spring region is:

a. a resurgence of nationalism over pan-Arabism or pan-Islamism

b. concerns in the Gulf about expanding Iranian influence (e.g. in Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, Yemen).

“I am become Death, destroyer of worlds.” A short thread on Robert Oppenheimer, the Bhagavad Gita, and the poetry of the nuclear age. J. Robert Oppenheimer, often characterized as the father of the American nuclear bomb, is the subject of a much-anticipated Christopher Nolan biopic being released this summer.

Here’s the trailer:

THREAD: Over the past few weeks, I’ve attended a half dozen conferences – mostly in India – during which I met with military, business, and policy leaders from at least 50 countries. Some impressions on:
1.The Russia-Ukraine War
2.Views of the Indian economy
3.The Global South (For those interested, I did a similar conference roundup thread last summer:)

https://twitter.com/d_jaishankar/status/1536151775446720514?s=20

THREAD: I’ve spent the last week focused on India-U.S. 🇮🇳🇺🇸 relations, in numerous conversations with people in both countries' governments, business communities, strategic commentariat, private foundations, and media.

I thought I would share 12 general impressions: 1. India-U.S. official dialogue on matters to India’s east is really advanced. Virtually nothing is off the table and there is a high degree of trust. There are long-term concerns about the maritime domain in particular, which will assume different forms in the coming decades.

1. Year in Review: With 2022 drawing to a close, I thought I would share some of my articles and commentary on international affairs from the past year. It has been an eventful 12 months. 2. First, the Russian invasion of Ukraine had implications for Europe, China-Russia relations, and energy, food, and arms markets. In February, I suggested that the crisis exposed weaknesses in Russian and European approaches to international affairs. orfamerica.org/newresearch/wh…

My latest column in @HindustanTimes:

The Biden administration has made a multi-billion dollar gamble on manufacturing semiconductors. There’s just one problem: the US doesn’t have the people to see the plan through.

That’s where India comes in.

hindustantimes.com/opinion/india-… The U.S. semiconductor sector already faces a workforce crisis, needing about 90,000 jobs. Future plans will require (conservatively) at least 350,000 STEM-educated workers: researchers, innovators, engineers, and technicians.

I'm going to regret this, but - given some absolutely bonkers commentary on the subject - a short thread on U.S.-Pakistan relations and implications for India.

Essentially, it appears that every U.S. administration experiences this at some point: First, what prompted the latest round? A few data points.

This is one, although it says "The proposed sale does not include any new capabilities, weapons, or munitions": dsca.mil/press-media/ma…

THREAD: I spent the last week attending several international conferences (all Chatham House Rule) in Washington DC, meeting over 100 people from >30 countries.

A few takeaways on: (1) Russia-Ukraine, (2) the global economy, (3) China, (4) U.S. power, (5) emerging tech: I. Russia-Ukraine. The general consensus is protracted conflict as long as both sides see potential for gains. West's continued isolation of Russia indicated by Bulgaria's refusal of overflight, Sweden/Finland joining NATO, and Switzerland/Singapore joining sanctions.

Because there's so much media coverage, a brief examination of Indian opinion about Russia (compared to Indian opinion about the United States).

As this 2017 survey indicates, Indian attitudes towards Russia are generally positive, surpassed only by the U.S. In 2019, the Pew Research Center asked Indians about their views of Vladimir Putin. 42% had confidence, 13% had no confidence, 45% did not know.

When asked about then-U.S. President Trump: 56% had confidence, 15% had no confidence, 30% did not know.

Is there some competition underway for “worst India strategy take by an over-opinionated white male”? Bonus points for being ill-informed, sounding patronizing, and dropping some not-so-subtle hints of racism. Since some have asked, let me offer a brief explanation as to why some of these analyses are condescending, inaccurate, and in fact self-defeating, and I will use a specific (and relatively recent) example: India’s nuclear tests of 1998.

1. All historical parallels are flawed or imperfect, but I can't help but think about Moscow's decision-making around Afghanistan immediately after 1979. 2. The initial USSR intervention of Afghanistan was described as a "Limited Contingent" in December 1979. But in early 1980, Moscow decided on a shift from defensive to offensive operations, following resistance. This was not immediately accompanied by increases in troop levels.

Enjoyed chatting with @BradSmi, President of @Microsoft, at @orfonline's @raisinadialogue.

A few highlights of our conversation below.

#Raisina2021 #RaisinaDialogue

Video: 1. Data and computing are so fundamental to our lives. A lot of that happens now in enormous data centers. What users don't often appreciate is that massive data centers require physical space, electrical infrastructure, physical and cyber security, and built-in redundancies.

The U.S. National Security Commission on Artificial Intelligence submitted its final report to the president and Congress last week. It's pretty all-encompassing: reports.nscai.gov/final-report/t… Among other things, it advocates for "targeted disentanglement" with China: maintaining collaborative AI research and technology commerce, while building resilience, reducing illicit technology transfer, and protecting critical sectors.

Today is 10 years since my grandfather, K. Subrahmanyam, passed away. Last year, at the National Defence College, I discussed 7 ways in which he contributed to India's strategic thought and practice: dhruvajaishankar.blogspot.com/2020/09/k-subr… It was both a benefit and a liability for him that he never had formal training, nor did he fit into a single professional category:

THREAD: Now that U.S. President-elect Joe Biden has named or nominated senior members of his foreign policy and national security team, it might be useful to survey what all they have written or said in the recent past: 1. Tony Blinken has been named Secretary of State. Here is a wide-ranging conversation that touches upon a lot of global issues from last July: hudson.org/research/16210…

If the reports are correct about the national security and foreign policy principals that Biden will name this week, a few items of potential interest in the following thread. bloomberg.com/news/articles/… Transcript of a wide-ranging conversation this summer between Blinken and Walter Russell Mead at the Hudson Institute: hudson.org/research/16210…

There's a lot in the India-U.S. joint statement released today, and it's useful as a stocktaking exercise. But beyond the headlines, a few small but important items that captured developments over the past 12 months: "The Ministers welcomed the establishment of a permanent presence of the U.S. International Development Finance Cooperation (DFC) in India this year."

Join us in 30 mins for an important discussion on the future of Artificial Intelligence cooperation between the U.S. and India.

Hosted by @CEIPTechProgram & @orfonline and featuring Eric Schmidt, Nivruti Rai, K VijayRaghavan, and Bob Work.

Details: carnegieendowment.org/2020/10/23/all… Chairman NSCAI and former Google CEO Eric Schmidt: "AI...enables everything else. Progress in science will be fundamentally accelerated...The profound effect on health is yet to be seen...This is the time to get AI right...The China competition becomes very important."

This tangled thread gets curiouser and curiouser.

It turns out that a recent popular history of the Ottoman Sultan Selim I, written by no less than the chair of the History Department at Yale University...

nytimes.com/2020/08/18/boo… ...which claims that the Ottomans "made our modern world" and influenced "nearly every major event" of the era "from China to Mexico" (claims reproduced faithfully in outlets such as the Washington Post)...

washingtonpost.com/outlook/2020/0…