Packed house in Liverpool for the first Labour Party leadership hustings...
Boris Johnson mentioned- some boos from the crowd
Question- why are you the person to beat Boris Johnson? @EmilyThornberry: “in the end he’s a liar, he’s callous, he has a woman problem- he certainly has a problem with me.“
.@lisanandy: “I know because I was elected in 2010 that the minute the next Lab is elected the TV cameras will look the other way. The luxuries of a hung parl are no longer there. In 2010-15 we couldn’t get a hearing.”
.@jessphillips: “Johnson has a majority of 80. We’ve got to start speaking to people’s hearts. That’s what Boris Johnson does. We’ve got to be really careful when we think we can have an intellectual argument. This is the fight of our lives. BJ would be terrified to face me.”
All been pretty nicey nice so far until Phillips makes pretty clear broadside to Starmer about “intellectual arguments” being useless with maj of 80. Some murmurings from audience “it’s all about her.”
.@lisanandy putting in another assured performance, trading in on another: “I’m not afraid of Andrew Neil.”
.@Keir_Starmer not afraid to play to the local crowd: “I certainly won’t be giving any interviews to @TheSun during the course of this campaign.”
.@EmilyThornberry: “Frankly being leader of the Labour Party is frankly the worst in the world. The establishment come to us because they find us scary.”
She’s really going for it. Nothing to lose.
Whether the left wins or loses this contest, its impact on Labour culture has been profound. The tenor of the answers, virtually every starting point and many of the points of analysis would have seemed alien in 2010 or for any of the other candidates save JC in 2015.
Jess Phillips again the only one really seeking to joust with the other candidates: “We’ve got to start talking in a lanaguage that people understand. No one sits around talking about federalism or this senate or that senate” seconds after RLB was talking about why it’s vital.
.@lisanandy pledges to move Labour HQ outside of central London.
With CCHQ, civil service and big bits of the BBC off might be a good time to bag some cheap office space...
Thornberry says doesn’t matter whether the next leader is from London- “the best prime minister we ever had was Clem Attlee. Where was he from? Limehouse.”
Well, Putney actually...
Phillips again absolutely going for RLB, this time over anti-Semitism: “I don’t remember some of the people here being in the room or fighting those particular fights.”
Thornberry is absolutely going for it. Answer on anti-Semitism saying must be able to criticise the actions of Netanyahu and Israel but saying “that is not the fault of the Jews.” Crowd loving it.
Thornberry knows she has to go big or go home. She is going big. This race which is already so locked and a wildcard will emerge. I wonder.
Thornberry: “I don’t think there was anything I disagreed with in the manifesto but there was too much of it.” Refuses to name anything she dislikes but gives strong speech about social care.
All of the others seem a bit dour and sad. She’s full of energy. Remind you of anyone?
Question- what keeps you awake at night?
Nandy-her son being 17 (as she was) before first Lab govt
Starmer- the frustration of opposition.
RLB- climate crisis
Phillips- a constituent who needs Lab, in a refuge who voted for Johnson
Thornberry- her mum getting old w/o Lab govt
God I already feel like I know all their gags. These people are going to want to kill each other by April
Verdict? All quite tame. Very different vibe to 15/16. Less energy/vitriol all round. Know some of the non RLB campaigns were concerned partly because it’s Liverpool (Corbynite stronghold in the party)that there would be lots of boos/anger. Early days but still urge to unite.
That desire to unite must benefit Starmer as de facto unity candidate.
Individually
Starmer- workmanlike, has Corbynite moments of pleasing the crowd when he needed to but largely tried to stay above fray. No gaffes which is main objective as front runner.
RLB- not as good as last night. Though she has radical ideas she often sounds technocratic.
RLB (cont)- doesn’t have sense of Corbyn’s energy or insurgency which is partly out of her control as they’re not the insurgents anymore. Hard to calibrate.
Thornberry- had to go big or go home so she went big. Unlike the others she DID have energy, the rest seemed glum. In 2015 it wasn’t just what Corbyn said but how he said it, that he stood out against the tired sounding rest. Race needs a wildcard. Did herself no harm.
Phillips- as ever funny but don’t think she got the tone right. In quest to speak truth she sometimes tells Labour too many. Ergo sometimes seems she doesn’t like Labour much. That’s a problem in a Lab leadership contest. It’s the Liz Kendall approach and is dangerous.
Nandy- solid performance, engages with the questions properly, still can’t help but feel she needs Starmer to implode to stand a chance.
For those waking up in US, bewildered in Europe, what happened?
Have been on air for last 12 hours pouring over the data
Here it is
There's no silver lining for Democrats. Trump won everywhere. He's going to win the popular vote. He did better across the demographics. He grew his coalition, better with black voters, Latinos, young voters. The US become less racially divided by party. Harris underperformed Biden virtually everywhere.
Trump improved on his 2020 margin in 2,367 counties. His margin decreased in only 240 counties.
Trump didn't just sweep up in the swing states, and none of them are going to be that close. He closed the gap on Harris in a tonne of blue states. She turned out anaemic victories in New York, New Jersey, Rhode Island, Minnesota. He expanded his margins in red states to take huge generationally big victories in Florida and Iowa. He flipped Miami Dade county, winning a heavily Latino county Hillary won by 30 points by 10. He drove down Harris margins in big urban centres everywhere, including Chicago, New York, Austin etc.
This feels a far more devastating loss for the Democrats, even than 2016.
2016 the Dems had plenty of things to console them. A massive popular vote victory. A narrow electoral college loss in a few places. A rock solid ethnic minority coalition which looked like a solid electoral map of the future. Roe was intact. The Supreme Court was still balanced.
They have none of that now. They're staring down the barrel of a transformed Republican Party and a sustained inability to know how to deal with Trump and Magaism. In policy terms, they also have nowhere to go. In Biden's term they governed exactly in line with their own instincts. It's been soundly rejected by the electorate.
Extraordinary intervention from Donald Trump’s own former Chief of Staff John Kelly. The fmr general says Trump meets the definition of a fascist, would govern like a dictator and has no understanding of the Constitution or the concept of rule of law.
Kelly says: “Certainly the former president is in the far-right area, he’s certainly an authoritarian, admires people who are dictators — he has said that. So he certainly falls into the general definition of fascist, for sure.”
Kelly says Trump would not want to be pictured with amputee veterans saying that “it wouldn’t look good for me.”
Kelly confirms Trump spoke positively of Hitler as president.
“He commented more than once that, ‘You know, Hitler did some good things, too.”
As predicted, Labour are trying to suggest things are worse than they knew. There’s a bit of truth to that though broad contours of state of economy/public realm were known.
We’re clearly in for more pain. Just like, checks notes, the past 14 years.
That itself is an idictment of a generation of policymakers and politics. Voters might be forgiven for thinking they’ve heard all this before. Indeed they have, since George Osborne in 2010. Ernie Bevin said he wanted to be at the Ministry of Labour til 1990, ie to set the terms of thinking on industrial relations for a half century. It sometimes feels like Osborne will be Chancellor til 2050, no matter bow many times his vision of politics/political economy fails. You have to wonder how much more tolerance for it there’s going to be.
If nothing else, politically it was a huge contrast with the politics of optimism at last week’s DNC- instead now we have things are going to get worse before they get better.
Strongest sections of the speech were his diagnosis of the problems of populism and how Tories fell into that reap. Was authentically him and convincing.
The story of the last time a former president was shot and lived to tell the tale🧵
In October 1912 President Teddy Roosevelt was running for an unprecedented third term in office. He'd left the presidency four years before. On the 12th he was campaigning in Milwaukee.
Roosevelt had left the Republicans to found the Progressive Party, also known as the 'Bull Moose' Party.
On the night of the 12th October he was dining at the Gilpatrick Hotel, owned by a supporter. After eating he left to give a speech at the Milwaukee auditorium.
En route he was approached by a man called John Schrank, a German-American tavern owner, originally from Bavaria.
Shcrank opened fire on the former president with a Colt revolver. He was quickly wrestled to the ground but not before a bullet penetrated Roosevelt's body.
Fortunately, the bullet hit something else first- TR's glasses case and the folded up copy of his speech, some 50 pages long entitled "Progressive Cause Greater Than Any Individual"- both of which in his coat pocket.
NEW: Donald J. Trump is officially selected as the Republican candidate for president at the RNC in Milwaukee.
He becomes the first person since FDR in 1940 to win his party’s nomination three times on the trot (though unlike Trump he won each time).
The GOP has travelled a long way since those early Never Trump days. It’s indisputably his party now, in personnel, in ideas, in culture and the way it does politics.
That’s despite his refusal to accept the outcome of a presidential election, which led to an insurrection, and the fact he’s been convicted of a crime. It is a political journey without parallel, both personally and for his party.
The selection of Vance again shows the grip on the Republican party Trump now enjoys. In 2016 Trump was forced to choose a more establishment VP (Pence) to try and unite the party behind his candidacy. In Vance he chooses someone in his image, a prodigal son of America First.
The assassination attempt on President Trump is the 1st attempted attack on a presidential candidate for 52 years.
Political violence has a long pedigree in America's history. It haunted its politics in the 1960s. The landscape is darkening again and has been for some time.
Goes without saying that the attempt on Trump's life is heinous and deplorable. There is a lot of blame to go round for the now toxic nature of American politics which long predates Trump personally. However, while the descent of American politics towards renewed political violence did not begin with him it can't be denied he has his own significant part to play. His politics has always been predicated on the idea of existential threat. Of American enemies within and without. He mocked the attack on Nancy Pelosi's husband, downplayed the kidnap plot on Gretchen Whitmer. And then there is the big lie and January 6th which continues to fray the bonds of American democracy.
In other words, Trump has been part of this change in US politics, of the turn to extreme aggression in US politics, which will probably outlast him. It doesn't justify anything in any way, but it does help to explain part of the context of a democracy which increasingly feels a couple of wrong moves from complete disaster. You can't understand that without Trump and the unique way he does politics.
In the meantime, with only four months to go until the US election, this will reframe everything, especially with the RNC about to get underway.
Trump's position within the Republican Party will be solidified even further. That picture will become a symbol of political martyrdom.