For those waking up in US, bewildered in Europe, what happened?

Have been on air for last 12 hours pouring over the data

Here it is

There's no silver lining for Democrats. Trump won everywhere. He's going to win the popular vote. He did better across the demographics. He grew his coalition, better with black voters, Latinos, young voters. The US become less racially divided by party. Harris underperformed Biden virtually everywhere.

Trump improved on his 2020 margin in 2,367 counties. His margin decreased in only 240 counties. Trump didn't just sweep up in the swing states, and none of them are going to be that close. He closed the gap on Harris in a tonne of blue states. She turned out anaemic victories in New York, New Jersey, Rhode Island, Minnesota. He expanded his margins in red states to take huge generationally big victories in Florida and Iowa. He flipped Miami Dade county, winning a heavily Latino county Hillary won by 30 points by 10. He drove down Harris margins in big urban centres everywhere, including Chicago, New York, Austin etc.

Extraordinary intervention from Donald Trump’s own former Chief of Staff John Kelly. The fmr general says Trump meets the definition of a fascist, would govern like a dictator and has no understanding of the Constitution or the concept of rule of law.

nytimes.com/2024/10/22/us/… Kelly says: “Certainly the former president is in the far-right area, he’s certainly an authoritarian, admires people who are dictators — he has said that. So he certainly falls into the general definition of fascist, for sure.”

Thoughts on Starmer speech

Self-evidently highly political. Little in the way of policy, instead a framing of politics to come.

But there’s a paradox to it all

https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1828362636100042965

As predicted, Labour are trying to suggest things are worse than they knew. There’s a bit of truth to that though broad contours of state of economy/public realm were known.

We’re clearly in for more pain. Just like, checks notes, the past 14 years.

The story of the last time a former president was shot and lived to tell the tale🧵

In October 1912 President Teddy Roosevelt was running for an unprecedented third term in office. He'd left the presidency four years before. On the 12th he was campaigning in Milwaukee. Roosevelt had left the Republicans to found the Progressive Party, also known as the 'Bull Moose' Party.

On the night of the 12th October he was dining at the Gilpatrick Hotel, owned by a supporter. After eating he left to give a speech at the Milwaukee auditorium.

En route he was approached by a man called John Schrank, a German-American tavern owner, originally from Bavaria.

NEW: Donald J. Trump is officially selected as the Republican candidate for president at the RNC in Milwaukee.

He becomes the first person since FDR in 1940 to win his party’s nomination three times on the trot (though unlike Trump he won each time). The GOP has travelled a long way since those early Never Trump days. It’s indisputably his party now, in personnel, in ideas, in culture and the way it does politics.

That’s despite his refusal to accept the outcome of a presidential election, which led to an insurrection, and the fact he’s been convicted of a crime. It is a political journey without parallel, both personally and for his party.

The assassination attempt on President Trump is the 1st attempted attack on a presidential candidate for 52 years.

Political violence has a long pedigree in America's history. It haunted its politics in the 1960s. The landscape is darkening again and has been for some time. Goes without saying that the attempt on Trump's life is heinous and deplorable. There is a lot of blame to go round for the now toxic nature of American politics which long predates Trump personally. However, while the descent of American politics towards renewed political violence did not begin with him it can't be denied he has his own significant part to play. His politics has always been predicated on the idea of existential threat. Of American enemies within and without. He mocked the attack on Nancy Pelosi's husband, downplayed the kidnap plot on Gretchen Whitmer. And then there is the big lie and January 6th which continues to fray the bonds of American democracy.

In other words, Trump has been part of this change in US politics, of the turn to extreme aggression in US politics, which will probably outlast him. It doesn't justify anything in any way, but it does help to explain part of the context of a democracy which increasingly feels a couple of wrong moves from complete disaster. You can't understand that without Trump and the unique way he does politics.

Understand that Angela Rayner told DLUHC staff today that “she won’t be doing a Rees mogg with passive aggressive notes, those days are over.”

Also said dept will revert to its former title of “Ministry for Housing, Communities and Local Govt.” If you're in Whitehall and have stories/intel about what the new administration is doing in your dept, let me know. DMs open and anonymity guaranteed.

IF YOU'RE JUST WAKING UP 🧵

LABOUR LANDSLIDE.

THE WORST TORY DEFEAT IN HISTORY. COLLAPSE EVERYWHERE

LIB DEMS REVIVE BEST RESULT FOR THIRD PARTY SINCE 1923

SNP IMPLOSION. LABOUR DOMINANT IN SCOTLAND AGAIN.

MUSLIM VOTE FOR LABOUR COLLAPSES

INDEPENDENTS ELECTED IN SAFE SEATS Labour first

Keir Starmer is a huge election winner. Becomes only the fourth Labour leader to win a majority for his party.

Will be just shy of the 97 victory..

Party result the northern wall in its entirety, in Wales and in Scotland and won dozens of new seats in the south.

Did someone say febrile It seems very weird to allow rumours to build up and not clarify them before PMQs where the PM can be asked about them directly on the floor of the Commons. Not least when in news management terms you have a rare good day and decent story to tell on inflation…

NEW: Latest @TheNewsAgents Investigates - Britain’s hidden homeless children

Nearly 140,000 kids in Britain are now homeless, in so-called “temporary accommodation”. We went to a school where half of the kids don’t have a home to call their own.
podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/the… It’s having a devastating effect on the educational outcomes of a big and growing group of working class kids. They’re almost forgotten, because they’re not on the streets. But their living conditions are Victorian, often sharing one room with their parents, siblings, shared bath.

NEW: Lib Dems call on the govt to suspend arms sales to Israel.

@EdwardJDavey: “Clearly, the thought that British-made arms could have been used in strikes such as these is completely unacceptable.

“The government must take swift action to suspend arms exports to Israel." There's been (more or less) a fragile consensus between Conservative and Labour on policy towards Israel and the war. Pressure is going to increase on Starmer to move. Possibly (and more importantly) Sunak too...

NEW: Chancellor says that OBR forecasts that inflation is set to fall below 2% target in a few months. NEW: Alcohol duty to be frozen until February 2025.

What does the Galloway victory mean?

For the general election, very little. This was a unique by election and little is transferable. But it does change politics before the election and possibly tells us something about the shape of politics after it as well.

🧵

https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1763397332773585275

In the short term the result is highly embarrassing for Keir Starmer and for Labour. The Labour vote collapsed by over 40 % points. Labour will point to the fact that they withdrew support. But that reminds us that they had to withdraw support in a safe seat, itself a shambles.

It’s not like the British Parliament makes everything about itself, no not remotely Net result of all of this? Starmer has a lucky escape. Speaker is weaker. Commons is farcical. Nothing changes in Gaza. MPs don’t really get their vote. We continue not to scrutinise what matters (and even then not that much) , which is the government’s position and plan.

Grim news from Birmingham today. City Council has announced cuts to deal with effective insolvency notice. Includes:

-sale of £750m of assets
-cuts of to public services by £300m over two years
-21% rise in Council Tax
-dimming street lights
-fortnightly bin collections Breakdown of cuts for 2024-25

-£23.7m from adult social care
-£51.5m from children’s services
-£6.2m from housing
-£39.2m from city operations

More elsewhere. This follows long term reduction in spending power from the council, as per rest of local govt.

Liz Truss addresses NatCon

“Wokeism seems to be on the curriculum…there is confusion about basic biological facts, like what is a woman. Look at the net zero zealots…if you listen to the Today programme, I don’t recommend it, you’ll hear demands for more public spending…” Another cheap BBC shot from Truss, for whom it’s a habit. Perhaps if she had subjected herself to more interrogations on Today and other non partisan media organisations her premiership would have gone better.

A reminder that just in the last few weeks Trump has

-suggested convicted Jan 6th insurrectionists are “hostages” (while actual American hostages are still being held by Hamas).
-used fascist blood purity rhetoric.
-(once again) refused to commit to the NATO alliance.

https://twitter.com/dailymailuk/status/1748391510423355789

In his bizarre piece Johnson says he doesn’t “minimise” the “riot” which took place on January 6th.

Johnson then proceeds to do exactly that. As has been extensively detailed by Congress and law enforcement agencies in the US, it was a coup attempt.

NEW: Immigration minister Robert Jenrick resigns from Sunak’s government

“I refuse to be yet another politician who makes promises to the British public on immigration but does not keep them.”

So by implication, Sunak won’t.

https://twitter.com/robertjenrick/status/1732481602158985424

Jenrick’s resignation is a moment of serious threat to Sunak’s govt.

Jenricm was a close friend of Sunak’s. He was out there by RS to keep an eye on Braverman. Jenrick senses which way the wind is blowing in the Conservative Party and moved accordingly.

NEW: Government LOSES Supreme Court Rwanda case

Court rules unanimously that at present the government’s Rwanda policy is unlawful because UK govt cannot guarantee that refugees would not be returned to their country of origin. That would be break international and domestic law. Supreme Court therefore upholds the appeals court decision

Leaves the government’s Rwanda (and therefore PM’s small boats pledge) policy in disarray. Court was clear that policy is in contravention not just of ECHR but array of other legislation and international commitments.

NEW: CONFIRMED CAMERON RETURNS AS FOREIGN SECRETARY

First former PM to return to government since Douglas Home (as Foreign Sec) in 1970.

He must be heading to the Lords. First former great office of state holder in lords since 1982.

Big call from Sunak.

https://twitter.com/10downingstreet/status/1724004188403737058

NEW: Buckingham Palace confirms David Cameron has been made a life peer.

First former PM to join the Lords since Thatcher.

There’s a reason he hasn’t before now. That first register of interests will be one to watch.

Already huge numbers gathering at Hyde Park Corner for the March





“Palestine will be free, from the river to the sea.”